Barring some kind of cataclysm that results in a severe reduction in the state’s population, North Carolina is on track to get another congressional district following the 2020 census. We fell just short of getting a 14th district following the 2010 census, ten years after just barely having enough population to get a 13th district.
So, which party stands to benefit from a 14th district? Well, the state legislature has complete control of the redistricting process in North Carolina, therefore the maps will be drawn by members elected in 2020 – in districts drawn by Republicans. So, it seems fair to say that the GOP is favored to still be in control of the redistricting process in North Carolina. Because of that, one would think a new 14th district would be drawn to elect yet another Republican to Congress, which would make 11 Republicans to just 3 Democrats.
While such a move is feasible, it would probably not be the wisest in terms of maximizing the GOP influence in the state’s congressional delegation. Seven years from now, demographic changes will probably put districts like the 9th and the 13th in risk – certainly not toss-ups by any means, but places where Democrats have non-negligible chances at victory. With the growth occurring in Charlotte and Raleigh, drawing 11 Republican districts might be biting off more than the GOP can chew.
It would probably also mean weakening a number of incumbents, and putting the state at risk of producing a “dummymander.” Seems like quite a risk just for the prospect of one additional Republican member in the state delegation. We have 10 Republican districts right now, which is already kind of greedy. But 11 Republican districts would be really, really greedy – and the GOP would probably be punished for attempting it. What the GOP would probably do is to concede the 14th seat to the Democrats, allowing them to shore up the 10 Republican districts, some of which might have become more competitive over the decade.
Therefore, it’s likely the 2022 redistricting would result in 4 solid Democratic seats, these being:
The 1st District – Due to the addition of a 14th district, all the districts would become smaller. Yet because the population of the Northeast is losing population, the seat currently occupied by Butterfield would probably not change significantly. The only question is whether it will have to take in parts of Raleigh to keep the black VAP above 50%.
The 4th District – Two options here. Either a compact Raleigh-Durham district which would be more suburban in character, or a less compact district which extends down to Fayetteville (this option might make GOP districts taking in Wake County more vulnerable.)
The 12th District and the new 14th – There’s going to have to be at least one Democratic district in the Charlotte area. One option is to draw a compact district in Mecklenburg. This would mean an end to the infamous I-85 ‘snake’. Another option is to keep the 12th close to its current form, but chop off either the Winston-Salem or the Greensboro ‘arms’. Finally, there’s the option of drawing two Democratic districts that go into Mecklenburg – one that will extend to the Triad and look similar to the current 12th, and one that extends to Fayetteville, picking up Democratic rural areas in places like Anson and Richmond counties along the way.
There are lots of different combinations, but there are five areas that absolutely have to be ‘packed’ for an effective GOP gerrymander – the Black Northeast, the Triangle, Fayetteville, Charlotte, and Greensboro. Somehow Republicans, if they’re in charge of drawing the maps, will have to divide these areas between four districts, while not running afoul of any redistricting laws. Of course, if they get really ambitious, they can try to keep 11 districts to themselves, but they would be really stretching themselves short.
One thing is for certain – even a 10-4 GOP map would result in some ugly districts. There’s talk of a non-partisan redistricting commission put in place by 2020, but the State Senate doesn’t appear to be interested. Democrats who want to avoid another decade with little influence in the congressional delegation should therefore hope for either a judicial ruling severely limiting the GOP’s ability to gerrymander, or go all out in 2020 to take back the legislature, allowing them to take revenge on Republicans by instituting a gerrymander of their own.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
This all could change if SCOTUS decides it is more proper for districts to reflect numbers of actual citizens rather than the total number of persons. That decision will come down in 2016 and could dramatically reshape Congressional districts, potentially leaving us with a much more conservative Congress.
From what I understand North Carolina would have had a 14th after 2010 if we had a better or “true” count of North Carolina’s Hispanic population. In any case, I concur that we will get another one after the 2020 census and by then I hope we have passed legislation that moves us to a non-partisan redistricting process.
It’s possible to draw an 11-3 map that doesn’t have any of the GOP districts sink below R+9 PVI, but you would have to make some significant changes to the current map. NC-1 would have to go into Raleigh instead of Durham to remain above 50% BVAP, NC-2 would have to take all of Southern Wake County, NC-4 would pick up Durham, NC-13 would have to look more like it’s old version, but sent all the way to Surry County and the Republican Western parts of the state from Northern Wake County, and NC-10 would need to pick up some of Mecklenberg while ceding more of Asheville to NC-11. NC-12 would lose the Winston arm, forcing NC-5 to pick up all of Forsyth.This would probably be a “dummymander” that would probably fall apart mid-decade though.
If they want a 10-4 map, the best choice for a Republican GA would probably be to create a Fayetteville-based seat that also picks up all of the “Blue Dog” areas of the state (Robseson, Scotland, Richmond, Bladen, Columbus, Anson) and downtown Wilmington. The legislature can easily draw a 60% Obama ’08 seat there that would then shore up NC-2, -8, and -7, allowing them to help -9 and -13 more. This district would also likely elect a relatively conservative Democrat like Mike McIntyre or Gene McLaurin because even conservative voters here are still registered Democrats. However, that Democrat likely wouldn’t be a threat in a statewide race because this area of the state has no real donor pool and isn’t in a major media market.
You were pretty weak and slow getting to the important point, John, but, granted, you buzzed all around it enough, so I’ll give you some props.
As time progresses and as the state’s population grows –mainly from newbies coming to NC– it means not only additional NC districts, but also fewer areas that can be gerrymandered as bastions of conservatism. Demographics shall rule.
Older, heavily white and more conservative Baby Boomers will show up less and less at the ballot box with each succeeding year. Meanwhile, growing numbers of younger voters (i.e., those who have wholly different views on social issues than conservative GOP’ers, and many of whom may remember which party abolished early voter prep and registration programs and/or made voting places more difficult to reach from college campuses) will show up more and more.
You also left out the fact that population-growth-and-shifting “drift” happens between decadal reapportionment exercises, making it quite likely that the lever-pulling of 2016-2020 will be different than lever-pulling that occurred in 2012-16. And I’m willing to bet that the difference will reflect a more liberal voting pattern.
Yes, any new 14th NC district will almost certainly mean that the state’s congressional delegation will be a 10 GOP – 4 Dem affair post-2021. But, I believe that would be a worst case scenario and ratio. An NC congressional delegation much closer in its GOP-Dem numbers could happen as the state as a whole drifts more from the “purple” to the “blue,” as the potency of the 2011 GOP gerrymanders gets more and more diluted each passing year, and especially if Dems wrest control of redistricting via a wave year for them in 2020.