In GOP-Leaning HD-49, Biggest Issue is Public Education

by | Oct 7, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics, NCGA, Poll Analysis, Polling

House District 49: Rep. Gary Pendleton (R) vs. Kim Hanchette (D)

This is an affluent, heavily white, very educated district which takes in some of Raleigh’s wealthiest neighborhoods inside the Beltline along with a part of North Raleigh. It’s yet another legislative district designed to favor a Republican candidate, but Democrats are quite capable of making it competitive in the right year.

Republican Jim Fulghum won here by 8 points in 2012, he compiled a mostly conservative record in Raleigh, then was recruited by Republicans to run for the State Senate after Neal Hunt announced his retirement. The parties nominated strong candidates to succeed him: the Republicans went with Gary Pendleton, while the Democrats nominated Kim Hanchette. Fulghum passed away in July and Governor McCrory appointed Pendleton to finish out Fulghum’s term. Thus, Pendleton is an incumbent GOP legislator seeking reelection, which the party apparently perceived would be an asset politically.

The race so far has played out as one might expect. Pendleton is stressing his personal background and his commitment to low taxes and improving economic conditions to ensure private sector growth. Hanchette is concerned with what she feels is GOP neglect of public education and extremism in Raleigh. With the GOP legislature especially unpopular in urban counties, and this being a district quite attuned to happenings on Jones Street, Hanchette has pulled into a tie with the incumbent. The effort by the Hagan campaign to make public education spending a top issue has perhaps convinced residents of the 49th that the state of their own wallets should be a lesser priority this year.

Digging into the results from the Civitas poll on this race, we find the following: voters are divided on Pendleton while Hanchette sports a 22/11 favorability spread, most people feel that North Carolina is on the wrong track, 35% say public education is their top issue, followed by the economy at 10%, voters disapprove of both Barack Obama and Pat McCrory and opt for Kay Hagan in the Senate race over Thom Tillis by 4 points. Nonetheless, on Election Day voters say they will primarily be casting ballots based on national issues rather than state issues.

The bottom line? This is a true toss-up race. If the votes are counted early here, we could get a glimpse of which way North Carolina voters are leaning this year. If Pendleton wins comfortably, Republicans should be optimistic about keeping their veto-proof majorities and electing Thom Tillis to the U.S. Senate. On the other hand, a very close race or a comfortable Hanchette win should make them nervous.

Counties in district: Wake (part)

District Rating: Pure Toss-Up

2012 Result
54.0% Fulghum (R)
46.0% Karlsson (D)

Voter Registration
35.7% Republican
35.6% Democratic
28.4% Unaffiliated

84.7% White
8.0% Black
7.3% Other

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
52.2% Romney
46.8% Obama

2012 Governor
57.5% McCrory
40.2% Dalton

2010 Senate
56.6% Burr
41.3% Marshall

2008 Senate
49.3% Hagan
48.3% Dole

Social Media Support
Kim Hanchette – 483
Rep. Gary Pendleton (R) – 155

0 Comments

Related Posts

GET UPDATES

Get the latest posts from PoliticsNC delivered right to your inbox!

You have Successfully Subscribed!