U.S. Senate Race – U.S. Sen. Richard Burr (R) vs. Former State Rep. Deborah Ross (D)
North Carolina has a history of rejecting incumbent senators in favor of challengers, but Richard Burr seems to be an exception to the rule. In 2010, he won a second term in the Tea Party wave against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. This year, he’s running for a third term. If he succeeds, he’ll be the first North Carolina Senator to do so since Jesse Helms.
In the Senate, Burr has a center-right voting record which suits his home state well. He’s particularly interested in veterans’ issues and legislation affecting business. When Republicans became took a majority in the Senate, Burr became chairman of the Intelligence Committee. In a state where military issues are quite important and with homeland security of growing concern to Americans, his new role has increased his profile.
Polls show that despite his lengthy tenure in Congress, Burr is relatively unknown. While this is not necessarily a bad thing, it does leave Burr vulnerable to being defined by the opposition. Polls show that of those who do have an opinion of our state’s senior senator, there’s a roughly even divide. In a presidential year in a purple state where Democratic turnout should be high, this race certainly seems to have all the markings of a top-tier Senate contest – especially when one considers that no Senate contest in North Carolina has been won by more than 55% of the vote since 1974.
However, Burr has a number of assets that so far have made this race less competitive than other states’ contests. In addition to a center-right voting record and being chairman of an important committee, Burr is also considered to be one of the best retail politicians in the state, with an understated, down-to-earth style that resonates with the average voter but has also made him one of the most consistently underestimated candidates.
But recent events indicate that Democrats are now aware of Burr’s considerable strengths, as seen by their failure to nominate a top-tier challenger to run against him. Throughout 2015, a number of names popped up: former Senator Kay Hagan, Secretary Anthony Foxx, a number of former congressmen. Ultimately, none of them ended up running, and former State Representative Deborah Ross became the favorite of the Democratic establishment, entering the race last fall.
Most political observers consider Ross to be a credible candidate who would be in position to benefit should a wave emerge on the horizon, but who would not be competitive in normal circumstances. So what do Democrats see in Ross? Among other things: she’s a woman, she’s from the Triangle, and she’s well-connected to the Democratic fundraising network.
So far, Ross has surpassed expectations on the campaign trail. She won the Democratic nomination in a landslide thanks to strong support from progressive groups, and has proved to be an energetic fundraiser. While she can’t hope to match Burr’s $6 million war chest, Democrats hope Ross will have the resources to be competitive if 2016 looks to be a good year for them – and with Donald Trump or Ted Cruz heading the Republican ticket, a Democratic wave could indeed be coming. In that case, she’d be the next Kay Hagan – an unknown legislator who pulled off the upset of a lifetime.
Right now, Republicans aren’t concerned. In rallying behind Ross, some observers believe Democrats made a critical miscalculation – in particular, running a solid liberal in a center-right state. They think Ross, who represented a latte liberal district in Raleigh during her tenure in the legislature, is simply out-of-step with the state ideologically and won’t be competitive even in the most optimistic of Democratic scenarios. They say comparisons to Kay Hagan are unfounded because Hagan at least had the appearance of being moderate. A former director of the state’s ACLU, Ross is already being attacked for her opposition to the state’s sex offender registry – an issue which plays poorly with suburban women and which Burr strategists believe is her Achilles’ heel.
So, where to rank this race? The most recent PPP poll shows that Burr has a 5-point lead on Ross, with a considerable number of undecided voters. To win, Ross is going to have to have surprising appeal with voters who consider themselves unaffiliated. She’s going to have to hope for large Democratic turnout, considerable investments from national groups, and a couple of Burr missteps along the way – and an effective counter to the charge that she’s too liberal for North Carolina.
That might seem like a bridge too far, but Ross relishes being the underdog. And that’s what she is right now – the underdog. Burr has key advantages and while it wouldn’t be difficult to see him losing to a top-tier Democratic candidate, it’s certainly difficult to see him losing against Deborah Ross. Still, out of an abundance of caution, I’m giving this a ranking of “Leans Republican” because of the uncertainty of the presidential contest, which could have effects down the ballot – just probably not enough of an effect to send Deborah Ross to Washington.
Race Rating: Leans Republican
2010 Result
54.8% Burr
43.1% Marshall
Voter Registration
40.4% Democratic
30.5% Republican
28.6% Unaffiliated
70.4% White
22.3% Black
7.3% Other
Results in Other Elections
2014 Senate
48.8% Tillis
47.3% Hagan
2012 President
50.4% Romney
48.4% Obama
2012 Governor
54.6% McCrory
43.2% Dalton
Facebook ‘Likes’
Richard Burr – 32,356
Deborah Ross – 8,208
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Bubba, you should be running Deborah;s campaign! Your 3 points and the GOP war against public schools should be all she needs to take Burr on.
Yeah,right. Kinda like Kay Hagan tried to take on Thom Tillis.
Let’s just say our Deborah is a bit more forceful as a speaker.
She’ll need to be. Maybe Walt or Bubba should be hired to advise her. Bubba would be a natural choice to run “a North Carolina campaign.” LOL
So, Deborah Ross, not a “top tier” candidate, is already polling within 5 points of “invisible Richard,” who’s sitting on a $6 million war chest in a year when Jeb (!) Bush flushed far more than that down the campaign toilet, and still never got out of single digits. Maybe I’m just dreaming, but I think that any candidate who focuses on Burr’s great “moments of leadership,” such as:
(1) Running directly from a meeting of the Senate Finance Committee to the phone and calling his wife to “Get our money out, honey!” right after getting “insider information” on the impending meltdown, or
(2) Lobbying endlessly for an extra jet engine for the biggest military spending boondoggle in the history of the Pentagon, or
(3) In classic Nixonian style, “deep sixing” the Senate Intelligence Committee’s report on torture as soon as he inherited the chairmanship of that committee
ought to be able to make the case that Burr has outlived his right to “serve.”
Senator Burr really doesn’t have much to worry about at this point in the U.S. Senate campaign. Deborah Ross’s campaign is stodgy, dull, has no warmth, lacks any creativity, has no vision, and is a typical cookie-cutter Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) model–the good old boy Washington network–the kind that sunk our Senator Hagan. And, here’s the irony, Deborah’s campaign is quite unlike Ross herself who, to quote another commentator above, is: “engaging, warm and bright…with a powerful stump speech…and a better speaker than Kay Hagan.” Nothing in her current campaign thus far comes anywhere near close to this. Remember that Senator Hagan’s campaign manager, after losing her campaign in 2012, said: “WE ran a model campaign, but Senator Hagan lost it for us.” This is the kind of DSCC thinking now represented by Ross campaign manager, Dave Hoffman (from Montana–like Hagan’s manager), who has bounced around on 5-6 months of employment over the years in various campaigns (Montana, Florida, New York, but none in North Carolina)–all of which were lost. For evidence of his insensitivity, go to Deborah Ross’s campaign site and when you try to contact her by email or make a contribution to her your reply message goes to “Dave Hoffman in the Ross campaign”. You cannot know if your message or contribution to Deborah ever is never seen by Ross because everything apparently goes through her campaign manager and he does not respond to or even acknowledge messages. Mr. Hoffman–who no one seems to know in either our American Association of Political Consultants or in our International Association–has not learned the first lesson of campaign consulting and management: STAY invisible, ELECT the candidate. Apparently, Deborah Ross could not find anyone in North Carolina to run her campaign. Or, it is more likely, that the DSCC told Ross you will take our personnel, advice, and media consultants, or you won’t get our money.
It is not too late, Deborah, to run a North Carolina campaign more like that of your public personality. 2016 is a realignment year, and you can lead the political change that North Carolina needs. Best wishes and peace.
Dr. de Vries: David Hoffman is no longer campaign manager of the Deborah Ross campaign. A change has been made.
Dear Kick Butt (It is embarrassing to address you this way, but what the hey?!):
I did not know that Hoffman was gone, I must have missed the announcement. I have an email from Hoffman and Deborah Ross dated Saturday, April 16. Must have just happened…in any event, a good move. He did not represent what I believe Deborah Ross stands for. The mark of a good campaign is to always examine what it is you are doing (or not doing) and taking swift action to resolve problems. Time is your most precious resource and an ever-present enemy of every campaign and there are only 6 months left in this one. And, from my point of view, her visible paid media campaign should be underway now. Campaigns don’t peak–only advertising expenditures peak. Voters are making decisions now.
In every campaign, I always asked: “Why are we doing this?” You would be surprised to learn that, more often than not, it is: “because we have always done it that way.”
Now, I am even more supportive of Deborah’s campaign to learn this action was taken. End of homily.
O.K., Kick Butt, now who are you?
Peace.
“Larry:” Touche`. I don’t run campaigns.
You and “Ebrun” might be worth reading, if you had the guts to tell us your full names and who you represent, n’est-ce pas? (look it up).
peace,
Walt de Vries
Walt, I don’t represent any group or organization. I post my own opinions which, hopefully, reflect the views of other conservatives. Since I’m retired and am not seeking employment or even an advisory role, I don’t need to promote myself on this blog.
So bottom line…she did not hire you to run her campaign? Was it the Ph.D do you think?
You may be on to something there, Larry.
Explain this to me, John:
A retailer who has “been in business” for twenty years and still has 30% of his customers unaware of his product’s existence–is doing a good job how, exactly?
I think of Burr as NC’s “stealth senator”, as he seems to keep an extremely low profile: he’s the only politician I’ve written to on issues who NEVER replies or acknowledges letters/e-mails sent to him. This seems to have worked for him so far–I guess if you’re invisible, the odds that you will piss people off are lowered to some degree. However, he will have to come out of his den at some point, and I hope that the result will be no more years of Burr: I’d be willing to endure another six weeks of winter for that!
Hey, stop knocking “lattes!” Just had one and based on the conversations I could not help overhearing, the two close by tables’ occupants were deeply religious, GOP to the end, HB2 supporters.
Seriously, if my personal polling is any indicator of the likely results, Burr is in trouble, but it is far too early to make predictions. Will be interesting to see him defend Trump or Cruz positions.
I have met her and heard her speak. She is engaging, warm and bright. Her stump speech is powerful, and she is a better speaker than Kay Hagan. Keep a close eye on her…she will have the money to be competitive, and she raised more money than Burr did during the first quarter of 2016.