First identified by Jonathan Rauch, the law of 14 goes like this: once someone gets elected to major elective office, the clock starts ticking. The person in question has a window of 14 years to get elected President. The 14-year rule is like an expiration date. Once the 14 years are up, the politician becomes ‘stale’. Americans like freshness, from what they eat to the music they listen to and to the people they elect to the White House.
There’s just one caveat: getting elected Vice President temporarily stops the timer. The ‘law of 14’ has held up all the way back to the time of Theodore Roosevelt, with one exception: Lyndon Johnson, who took 23 years to go from Congress to the Vice Presidency.
So, of the people running for President, who passes the freshness test? I’ll list the potential candidates from both parties, the year they were first elected to major public office, and also the year they became – or will become – ‘stale’. Candidates who don’t pass the freshness test get a strikethrough. (Note that just because someone doesn’t pass the freshness test doesn’t mean they can’t get nominated – it just means they can’t win in the general.)
Democrats
Joe Biden (1972) 1986
Hillary Clinton (2000) 2014
Martin O’Malley (2006) 2020
Bernie Sanders (1990) 2004
Jim Webb (2006) 2020
Republicans
John Bolton
Jeb Bush (1998) 2012
Ben Carson
Chris Christie (2009) 2023
Ted Cruz (2012) 2026
Bob Ehrlich (1994) 2008
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore (1997) 2011
Lindsey Graham (1994) 2008
Mike Huckabee (1998) 2012
Bobby Jindal (2004) 2018
John Kasich (1982) 1996
Peter King (1992) 2006
George Pataki (1994) 2008
Rand Paul (2010) 2024
Mike Pence (2000) 2014
Rick Perry (2002) 2016
Marco Rubio (2010) 2024
Rick Santorum (1990) 2004
Scott Walker (2010) 2024
Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush top the polling of their respective parties, but the law of 14 says they’re both stale. Joe Biden was past his freshness date even when he first ran for President all the way back in 1988. Several Republicans on the list, most notably Carson, have never held elective office and therefore the clock hasn’t even started for them yet, but this is a double-edged sword as it also means less national visibility. And good news for Scott Walker: first winning election in 2010, he’ll be fresh for a long time to come. He could lose in the primary this time around and come back in 2024, and he still won’t be past his expiration date.
Next year, the law of 14 faces its biggest test yet. If Clinton and Bush both make it to the general, consider the law ‘broken’. But despite the polling right now, history tells us that Americans want a fresh face in the Oval Office. That was true in 2008 and it might be true again next year. If the two political dynasty candidates both stumble and America ends up with someone ‘fresh’ in the White House, consider it just another example of the law of 14 at work.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
I can’t believe you show Hillary in such respect. She has the “right stuff” and the country needs her. We will be blessed and most fortunate if she runs and wins.
You’re going to have what you don’t want with the others; haven’t you had enough.
I think the Democratic list is so short because the future Democratic leaders see that Hillary must run and lose in order to clear the Democratic deck for future leadership to rise and shine.
Hillary has ties that Elizabeth Warren does not. Sen. Warren would be to liberal for the South. However Sec. Clinton paired with former Sen. Jim Webb would be a very interesting ticket. Contributions would come from a very unusual mix of political beliefs. Also more and more I hear things were the best ( $$$$ ) when Clinton was President…. Hum….
It is a long time until the election. Many things could happen, one thing that won’t
happen is that Joe Bidden will not be the Democrat nominee.
You used a double negative there…don’t think you mean what you write…you are saying that it won’t happen — that Biden will not be the Democrat nominee? I think you mean to say that what “won’t happen” is that Biden WILL be the Democrat nominee…correct?
Why is the Democrat list so short? I realize that everyone is sort of treating Hillary like the ipso facto Democratic nominee, but surely there are a couple other good prospects that we might be able to convince to run? I’m all for a woman in the office, especially one as smart as Hillary, but we’ve really got to get some good stock back in the leadership of our party!
One theory is that the Clintons have worked for years to suppress the development of young, new political superstars to keep the path to the throne empty for her. Barack Obama came out of nowhere and the Clintons didn’t see him coming, but he was a fluke. Other than that, they’ve done a good job at the Party’s expense of limiting possible competition for Hillary.
You are correct, my friend. One of the reasons all this Clinton Worhsip, of both Bill and Hillary, is so annoying.
I’m hoping for Biden-Howard Dean versus Jindal-Bolton. Dark entertainments are the best politics has to offer, nowadays.