Recent actions by the GOP legislature to redraw the lines of various governing bodies have some Democratic officials in Mecklenburg nervous. The list of local boards and commissions the General Assembly has seen fit to remap continues to grow: first the Guilford County Board of Commissioners and the Wake County Board of Education, and now the Wake County Commission, the Greensboro City Council, and maybe even the Rockingham County School Board.

All of that has folks in Mecklenburg wary. Legislative intervention in the affairs of the county is certainly not unprecedented, as we’ve seen with the 2013 bill to establish a regional authority to run Charlotte’s airport. After redistricting legislation affecting North Carolina’s third and second largest counties, could similar bills be in store for Mecklenburg? Already, Republican Commissioner Bill James has floated the notion of changing the makeup of the Mecklenburg Board of Commissioners, shrinking the size of the board from nine to seven and reducing the number of at-large commission seats from three to one. James says it would have the effect of making elections for chair less chaotic.

James’ idea in itself wouldn’t be too controversial. The last election for chair was a messy affair and resulted in Democrat Trevor Fuller being named for the position, despite the lead vote-getter being Democrat Pat Cotham. Under James’ proposal, the one at-large member would automatically become chair, which would certainly do a lot to make elections for chairpersons less contentious. And because Mecklenburg is so Democratic, the at-large vote would be decisive and ensure Democratic control of the Board, no matter how the lines in the other districts are drawn.

The General Assembly might do him one better, though, creating redistricting legislation very similar to the kind they intend to carry out in Wake County, reducing the number of at-large districts from three to two, and having these members elected from “super districts” – one for metro Charlotte, and the other consisting of the suburban areas of the county. The urban district would practically be guaranteed to support a Democrat. The suburban “at-large” district, on the other hand, would be very likely to elect a Republican; such a district would likely have gone for Thom Tillis by 6 points and Mitt Romney by double-digits.

Control of the Commission, then, would almost certainly be determined by how things play out in the 5 or 7 smaller districts, as the at-large districts would cancel each other out completely. Despite Mecklenburg being strongly Democratic by registration, through clever drawing of the lines, a new map could result in a majority of districts in which the GOP is competitive. After the urban (read: Democrat) districts are drawn, that leaves an area that went for Richard Burr by about 59%, to be divided between the remaining districts. This suburban area was about 50/50 in the Tillis/Hagan race. Slicing and dicing this area and making each of them favor Republican candidates wouldn’t be too difficult.

So, yes – a Republican majority can be carved out, just barely, in Mecklenburg. Because the county is even more Republican downballot than it is for federal races, the GOP would probably be favored to carry the competitive districts. But it could come with a price: that same map could create a scenario where Democrats win all 7 seats. Only time will tell if the prospect of GOP control of the state’s largest county is too tempting for the legislature to resist.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.