It’s all over but the crying

by | May 5, 2014 | Editor's Blog, NC Politics, US Senate

It’s all over but the crying. With less than 24 hours left before the final day of voting in the 2014 primary season, nothing can really change the outcomes. The victors are in place. We just don’t know who they are yet.

In the marquee race, the GOP primary for US Senate, conventional wisdom holds that Thom Tillis will win with 40% or more of the vote and avoid a costly runoff. Recent polling shows him either above or very close to 40%. Tillis has an overwhelming financial advantage and he’s received additional support from outside groups. Neither Greg Brannon nor Mark Harris, his main opponents, has captured the imagination of primary electorate. 

That said, nothing is certain in politics. A runoff is still possible. First, polling in primaries is difficult. In North Carolina, we haven’t had a contested GOP primary for US Senate in a non-presidential year in decades so identifying likely voters is difficult. Hence, pollsters may have accurate numbers for the people they are surveying, but they might not be same people who show up to vote. So Tillis may not be in as good a shape as polls say. 

Second, a very low turnout helps his opponents. Greg Brannon has a field operation supporting him that is funded by FreedomWorks. He has the support of most Tea Party groups in the state and they are the people who fueled the GOP victories in 2010. In a low turnout election, they may have a disproportionate influence over the electorate. 

Third, there are eight people in the primary. Four have almost no name ID. Heather Grant doesn’t have much but she’s the only woman in the race and she got some publicity due to her appearances in the debates. In 2010, GOP Senator Richard Burr had three primary opponents and none got less that 4% of the vote and one got 11%. If the four no-names average 5% of the vote, then all best are off. Grant will likely get at least 8% by virtue of being the only woman on the ballot. If Brannon and Harris only need to combine for 32% or less of the vote, then a runoff is likely. 

Tillis is probably still the odds-on favorite to come out of the primary as the nominee, but it’s far from a sure thing. The Speaker, his campaign and the dark money establishment groups supporting him are probably sitting on pins-and-needles today. They need a victory to re-establish control of the party and begin running a general election campaign.

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