After this week’s debates, Thom Tillis should be feeling pretty good. Nobody really emerged as the anti-Tillis, and there is no evidence that either Greg Brannon or Mark Harris is going to be able to increase their small TV buys. In addition, American Crossroads, Karl Rove’s SuperPAC, announced that it’s about to spend an additional $1 million in ads supporting him. Unless he screws up today, Tillis wins the week at a crucial time in the campaign.
The debates didn’t do much to distinguish the candidates. Instead, they highlighted their similarities. Neither Harris nor Brannon emerged as a chief rival to Tillis, though Brannon at least tried by running to the House speaker’s right.
Time Warner apparently commissioned a poll after the debate that tells us a bit about the GOP electorate. Though a majority (51%) say no one won the debate, Brannon is the only candidate who gained support. He moved from 18% to 26% support while Tillis stayed basically the same at about 50% support and Harris lost. In the debate, Brannon showed his full-on crazy, supporting guns for the mentally ill and convicted felons, calling the minimum wage unconstitutional and opposing Common Core, the latest obsession of right-wing conspiracy theorists. And he picked up 8%, mostly from the subdued Harris.
For Harris, the debates have been a missed opportunity. For the past few weeks, he seemed to be gaining momentum at the right time but this week, he lost it. Unless he can substantially increase his ad buy, he probably lacks the resources to punch through the crowded airwaves. He needed to score points in the debates to fire up the social conservatives and grab the attention of the undecided voters who clearly are not enthusiastic about Tillis.
Tillis’ path to victory on May 6 just got a little clearer. The money is still coming in for him while the enthusiasm for his opponents is waning. There is still time for Brannon or Harris to make a move but without money, it’s difficult. If Brannon sticks to his constitutional fundamentalism and fires up the crazies, he may reach 20% of the vote. Harris, though, needed a boost this week to sustain his momentum. He didn’t get it. If he doesn’t reach 20%, Tillis probably will slip through.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
If D.C. outsiders and special interest groups would stop interfering in other state’s elections, perhaps, for just once in several centuries, the people of each state would be solely responsible for voting in/out their elected servants. These elected servants would, in return, be beholding to their constituency………SOLELY. Pipe dreams, I know! I’m a forever idealist.
Everyone has an opinion. To many North Carolinians, thank God that yours doesn’t count! Yeah, just what North Carolina voters want and need: an outsider like Karl Rove to determine the winners and losers in OUR elections. We will soon see how much influence Rove’s money can buy. He sickens me.
I hope you are right, Annette. I’m not pulling for Tillis. Just calling them the way I see them.