Yesterday, I wrote about legislative polls that indicate Republicans in House districts across the state face a tough environment. PPP’s monthly poll reinforced that perception. Statewide, the General Assembly has a 27% approval rating and 57% disapprove. Republicans in the legislature fair a little better at 31% approve, 51% disapprove, but that’s still under deep water. 

Republicans are already trying to reverse the trend by dropping mail in competitive legislative districts and their allies at Carolina Rising are running TV ads highlighting their education plan. They’re quite obviously trying to hang their hats on the teacher pay raises. It’s going to be a tough sell, though, after almost four years of beating up on teachers and cuts to public schools. The ads run contrary to people’s personal experiences. 

That said, Democrats should fire back now. The Hagan campaign and its allies are obviously up and running, but Democratic challengers and their allies in competitive legislative district should start communicating sooner than later. As I said yesterday, now is not  the time for caution. 

Conventional wisdom says that campaigns should hold their fire until the final weeks of the race when voters start tuning in. But this cycle is not conventional. Unlike other states, the North Carolina GOP has a serious image problem that trumps the national environment. Democrats should not let them fix that problem with unanswered communications programs.

Democrats face a funding challenge. As the minority party, they have more problems raising money than the party in power and they lack the deep pockets of the Pope machine and its allies. Campaigns and caucus organizations worry that if they spend money now, they’ll be broke going down the stretch in October. 

I see it differently. The GOP is broken and they are struggling to recover. Democrats shouldn’t allow them to get on their feet. A month of unanswered advertising could shore up beleaguered legislators, making them competitive down the stretch. Democrats and their allies should spend now to keep them down. 

I believe that a Democrat who is leading his or her Republican opponent at the end of October will find the money to finish to the job. Donors aren’t going to abandon an opportunity this year. However, a Democrat who is trailing and squandered a lead will face a headwind going into November. 

Democrats need to learn how to be a minority party and this is a teachable moment. They need to be opportunistic and take chances. In campaigns, that often means spending early. Now, is one of those opportunities. Don’t let ’em up. 

2 Comments

  1. Eilene

    Here’s an interesting fact… in Catawba County, where I teach, The teaching assistants went to a meeting before school the other day. The superintendent, who is a great guy, had to tell them that due to the cut in funding for their positions, they had a tough decision to make. Keep the positions’ pay and hours the same for those they could keep, and cut some positions, or cut a few hours from every teaching assistant so everyone could keep their jobs. So, they got a whopping $500 raise from the legislature (only half of what EVERY other state employee got) but got their hours cut enough to cost them $1000. Thanks for the raise you gave my friends and colleagues, you bumbleheads in Raleigh. These guys are tools.And the problem, is, they put on their little ray of sunshine commercials, and people believe them. The Democrats need to get out there and speak the truth LOUDLY. NOW.

  2. Mick

    Re: your writing “Republicans are already trying to reverse the trend by dropping mail in competitive legislative districts and their allies at Carolina Rising are running TV ads highlighting their education plan. They’re quite obviously trying to hang their hats on the teacher pay raises. It’s going to be a tough sell, though, after almost four years of beating up on teachers and cuts to public schools. The ads run contrary to people’s personal experiences.”

    You are so right, Thomas. I just got a campaign flyer from my state senator, Chad Barefoot (that fact is to my great embarrassment, BTW). In it, he brazenly lies about his position and record on public education. Calls himself a champion for education, that he is fighting for public educational funding, that the teacher pay raise means a $3500 bump in pay for each teacher. And all of that is prevaricating nonsense.

    He voted for a budget that includes a teacher pay raise that is based on unstable sourcing of funds and that has the most veteran teachers get nothing additional; that cuts teaching assistantships; that diverts funds (that could have gone to traditional the public education system) to more exclusive and less accountable charter schools and to vouchers for private school enrollment. And his vote helped to limit Wake County voters from home rule and decision-making on whether to raise local sales taxes for education purposes in a timely, deliberative manner.

    Now is the time to counter such campaign claptrap as Barefoot’s. It looks like the teacher raise will be a hallmark talking point for every GOPer seeking election or re-election. And there are so many shortcomings with the raise formula, its sourcing of funds, its unfairness to some teachers, etc. And all other GOP appropriations for education can be attacked as either inadequate or misapplied.

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