We’ve come to the end of our District Geography series. Below is an overview on races to watch tonight. There are actually a number of competitive seats for the General Assembly this cycle. If Republicans have a bad night, then they’ll watch their veto-proof majorities in both chambers disappear. But if they have a very good night, pick-ups in both chambers are possible (key word possible). Let’s go. Senate first, then House:
Senate races
SD-1 (northeast NC) This was the closest race for a legislative seat in 2012, and one of the closest races in the nation. Republican Cook dispatched Democrat White by a bus load of votes. Now, White is back for a rematch. There are a lot of conservative Democrats here and Cook has been taking a beating from environmental groups. If Cook survives this year, then hammer another nail into the old-school Eastern NC Democratic coffin.
SD-9 (New Hanover County) This seat takes in just about all of New Hanover County and is very swingy. Republican Lee, an appointed incumbent, has the edge here over Democrat Redenbaugh. If Redenbaugh wins, it’s going to be a long night for Republicans.
SD-15 (northwest Wake) If there’s any backlash against the legislature, it will be centered around Wake County, where Democrats are expecting a very good year. Republican Johnny Mac Alexander is a respected businessman and the kind of candidate who typically does well in this area, but Democrat Tom Bradshaw is a former mayor of Raleigh with a stretch of highway named after him (he was State Transportation Secretary) and is making this very competitive.
SD-18 (eastern Wake, Franklin County) This has been a very expensive, and mud-slinging campaign. Chad Barefoot is a freshman incumbent Republican seeking reelection, his opponent is Democrat Sarah Crawford. Barefoot should have the edge here: he’s run one of the best (and most aggressive) campaigns of any vulnerable incumbent this cycle. If he loses, Republicans should brace themselves for a long night.
SD-19 (part of Cumberland County) – Sen. Wesley Meredith was thought to have the edge here, before he had a negative news story dropped on him last month. But since then, he’s been endorsed by some Democratic officials, so he’s certainly still in the game and might even be favored. It’s anyone’s guess what will happen here.
SD-25 (Sandhills area) – Sen. Gene McLaurin (D) is a conservative Democrat but might not be conservative enough to resist an increasingly Republican electorate in this district. He’s being challenged by Tom McInnis, a Republican. When all is said and done, I think the GOP picks up this seat. If they don’t, Democrats are probably having a good night.
House races
HD-02 (parts of Person and Granville counties) – This seat is being vacated by long-serving Democrat Winkie Wilkins. The candidates are Ray Jeffers (D) and Larry Yarborough (R). I expect Republicans to pick this up as well.
HD-06 (Nags Head area)- Conservative Democrat Paul Tine is in a good position here against Republican Mattie Lawson, who is seeking a rematch. If he loses, Democrats should brace themselves for a long night.
HD-41 (suburban Western Wake County) – Rep. Tom Murry (R-Morrisville) is a two-term incumbent in a heated election battle with Cary Town Councilwoman Gale Adcock (D). Democrats hope for a strong year in Wake County and picking up this seat is an absolute necessity for that to happen. If Murry is looking good as the results come in, that’s bad news not only for Democrats running for the General Assembly elsewhere, but also for Kay Hagan.
HD-46 (Columbus County, part of Robeson) – Now this one’s interesting. This area has a long, long tradition of supporting Democrats, but Rep. Ken Waddell, a freshman Democrat, is trying his best to break that streak. His opponent, Brenden Jones, is a Republican who has criticized Waddell for being an absentee representative, “missing in action.” Democrats shouldn’t be losing here, especially not with the legislature as unpopular as it is and in such a traditionally Democratic stronghold … but they might.
HD-49 (Inside the Beltline) – Gary Pendleton (R) vs. Kim Hanchette (D). Pendleton was appointed to this seat following the death of Rep. Jim Fulghum this summer. This is an easier hold for Republicans than HD-41 but a Pendleton win might indicate Democrats aren’t having such a banner year in Wake County after all.
HD-51 (parts of Harnett and Lee counties) – Fracking is controversial here and Rep. Michael Stone (R) has been the target of environmental groups. He’s probably the underdog here. If he’s looking good this evening, then Republicans are going to have a good night in North Carolina.
HD-115 (East Buncome County) – Held by freshman Rep. Nathan Ramsey, a Republican. He’s tried to craft a moderate profile in his campaign but the district is a tough hold this year and polls show him running behind challenger John Ager.
HD-116 (West Buncombe County) – This is the Tim Moffitt/Brian Turner race, which we profiled yesterday. This one looks to be a tight as a tic. Moffitt is not that popular but the district’s GOP lean might save him in the end. I actually think Ramsey is more likely to go down than Moffitt just because of the realities of their respective districts.
HD-118 (Mountains) – Democrats say they’re confident Rep. Michelle Presnell (R-Burnsville) is going down. Her challenger is Democrat Dean Hicks, a Yancey County Commissioner. Hicks is favored but Presnell’s initial victory was a surprise on Election Night 2012. It’s possible she could surprise again.
That’s it. It’s possible there are other districts that will see a competitive race or even a change in parties, but any of those would definitely qualify as a surprise or a major upset.
OK, that’s a wrap. Give us your thoughts on these races in the comments below and feel free to chime in with your own predictions. This should be an interesting night!
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
HD-46 flipped to the Dems as well.
Salmon took out Stone in HD-51.
You didn’t mention HD-119, but Joe Sam Queen has a 1200 vote lead with 4 precincts still out. Tine looks strong in HD-6.
Looks like HD-41 and HD-51 flip to the D’s as well.
Well, Buncombe turned out both Ramsey and Moffitt (HD-115 and HD-116), thanks to a ferocious GOTV. Rock on, Larry and Rich and Sarah and the gang!
Sorry John, youre still wrong on NC-02, also think NC-41 will have no bearing on the US Senate results.
Haha, we’ll see! On NC-41: I just don’t see both Murry and Hagan winning.
You should also watch Langley vs. Rabin.
“Barefoot should have the edge here: he’s run one of the best (and most aggressive) campaigns of any vulnerable incumbent this cycle.”
John, you could only write the above if your definition of “best (and most aggressive)” is unethical, underhanded, prevaricating, and based on nasty personal attacks on an opponent’s spouse. He’s ranked as one of the most ineffective GOP senators in the NCGA (by his peers and the media and lobbyists), and that’s been reflected in his having to rely on so much dark outside money and scurrilous ads to stay competitive in this race.
I hope Barefoot loses, and whether he does or not, I hope he gets taken to court and sued for his sickening TV ad about Crawford’s husband. He makes my skin crawl……