Libertarians often complain that the two parties are conspiring to deny voters any real choice by shutting out parties with differing views from the election process. More often, though, it’s the candidates themselves who ensure they end up with a minimal level of support. Third parties have a bad habit of nominating people who aren’t serious. In many cases, they’re downright looney tunes: cranks who are running, well, just because.
Case in point: Sean Haugh, who is running under the Libertarian banner for U.S. Senate in North Carolina this year. This weekend, he got in a fight on Facebook with a voter and called her an “ignorant moron.” Now, to be fair, lots of voters are ignorant morons and deserve to be called out on it. And Thom Tillis has gotten into some Facebook fights of his own, but they were fairly civil and he certainly didn’t call voters names. And you’ll never hear Thom Tillis (or Kay Hagan, for that matter) tweeting stuff like this.
Early on I speculated that there could be a perfect storm for the Libertarian winning an unusual amount of support. With both candidates so disliked, a serious third party candidate could get around 7% of the vote. Not very high, of course, but enough to affect the race and give Team Tillis a serious headache. Now, one should have been skeptical that a guy with no money like Haugh could win such support, but the chance was there.
Instead, polls show that, predictably, Haugh is declining in support. In the last poll from Fox News, an overwhelming majority of Haugh supporters said they were open to supporting another candidate. These people are voicing support for Haugh in surveys but they’re really just cranky and will end up supporting one of the major candidates. They know it, too. And Tom Jensen of PPP says that Haugh is no longer disproportionately taking support from Tillis. Tillis strategist Paul Shumaker says that “all our modeling clearly shows less than 2 percent” of the vote going to Haugh. (Haugh ended up with 1.45% when he ran for Senate back in 2002.)
The takeaway? It looks like, once again, the Libertarian candidate will take around their usual share of the vote, which is 3%. And there’s a good chance he’ll get lower than that. Haugh’s social media activity won’t be the decisive factor, but it’s a symptom of what’s wrong with the Libertarian Party and with third-party candidates in general: most voters, regardless of how much they desire something outside of the two-party system, don’t want their vote to be one of simply protest. They want to vote for something. When the Libertarians nominate a candidate who voters could seriously see representing them in the United States Senate, then they’ll see an increase in their support.
What follows is a table showing a history of Libertarian candidates and the support they received in statewide races in North Carolina since 1992:
In the results of those 19 statewide races, the average share of the vote the Libertarian received was 1.57%. The highest was Scott McLaughlin’s race for Governor in 1992, where he received 4.05%. On average, Libertarian presidential candidates received 0.48%. Gubernatorial candidates and Senate candidates fared better, receiving 2.11% and 2.03%. This could point to the importance of Libertarian candidates campaigning in-state, or perhaps is a reflection of voters being more unwilling to “waste” their vote in races they deem more important.
None of the statewide Libertarians were successful, obviously. And a disproportionate number of them had the first name “Michael”. Running on multiple occasions is not uncommon. Barbara Howe has run four times, and as mentioned earlier Sean Haugh ran back in 2002.
And in only one of them – the 2008 presidential race in North Carolina – was the Libertarian candidate possibly a factor in determining the victor. The odds are overwhelming, then, that Sean Haugh, like so many third-party statewide candidates before him, will be a non-factor in this race, especially since he is now drawing about an even number of liberals and conservatives. Conservatives, like Ms. Badalian, shouldn’t fret about his continued presence in the race. Thom Tillis is going to win or lose this race on his own merits – and if it just so happens that North Carolina is the seat that keeps Democrats in control of the Senate, the pizza man won’t deserve the blame.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Also missing from Mick’s sad list is the sunsetting of historic preservation tax credits that have driven an increase in the tax base, created thousands of jobs, resurrected blighted neighborhoods, revitalized cities, kept a boat load of debris out of landfills, helped first time home-owners & seasoned investors alike, helped reduce crime, and preserved North Carolina’s built heritage.
I don’t know anything about John Wynne, or what party or politicians he supports. This is the first column of his that I’ve read, and I really don’t see anything in it — in this particular column — that suggests that Thom Tillis is “his boy” or that he’s a GOP supporter, as several posts suggest. If he is a Republican-leaning writer, I congratulate him for his even-handedness in pointing out the unlikelihood of the Libertarian candidate’s having any measurable impact on the Senate race.
I’m a lifelong Democrat and a strong supporter of Kay Hagan, and I know from experience that Libertarian candidates most often do draw their support from conservatives and the GOP, benefiting Democrats (viz. Clinton-Perot-Bush in ’92). But I really didn’t see anything in this column that hints that Wynne thinks that would be a good or a bad thing; rather, I noted that he pointed out that Tillis will win or lose this campaign on his own merits or faults, not as a result of Haugh’s third-party candidacy.
So, why all the panties in a twist?
For a better understanding, perhaps you should read some more of Mr. Wynne’s writing. That should give you enough context to understand that John is here as the resident conservative.
However, methinks other motivations abound other than confusion, in due consideration of your post.
This article makes me so jealous of people who want more war and more debt. They have TWO serious, qualified candidates to pick between.
It is an excellent summary indeed. I believe you left off the failure to keep the NC Film Incentives which cost us Millions and quite a few jobs! Thanks McCrory!
Yup, Larry. Let’s see. The NCGOP’ers have:
-suspended wildlife regulations so that a crowd of NC’ers can drop a possum;
-gone ahead with SolarBee contraption (manufactured by a GOP donor) deployment instead of proven science to address Jordan Lake pollution;
-proposed a state religion;
-delayed sea level rise planning by coastal communities by 4 years, heeding the sea-level-rise-denial claptrap of an Adirondack Mountain real estate broker more than the state’s own respected natural resource managers and university researchers;
– passed a tax reform that, in Year 1, did not foster any substantive economic revival, but rather created a $400M revenue deficit and promised to create a shortfall twice that amount in Year 2;
-without hearings or debate, ended an education funding formula that has served NC well for over 75 years in planning/budgeting for enrollment growth at the local level;
-after ignoring low teacher salaries for 4 years, gave teachers a 7%…um, no…make that a 5.5.% (according to the governor)…er…no, make that a ZERO percent increase (if you happen to be amount the most experienced teachers);
-passed a voting law that eliminated one of the nation’s best pre-registration programs for soon-to-be-age-eligible teens;
-refused expanding Medicaid although it would have cost the state nothing at first and just 10% thereafter;
-let religious-based views unduly influence women’s reproductive health options and the civil rights of gay citizens;
-done nothing to encourage its uninsured citizens to enroll in a new federal health insurance program, or to create a health insurance market exchange that would have worked to keep those citizens’ insurance premiums lower. Despite that, NC had one of the nation’s highest ACA enrollment levels;
-touted any monthly unemployment declines as the result of their programs and tax reform, while lamenting any monthly unemployment increases as a legacy of poor Dem leadership of yore or the fault of the POTUS.
This is but a short litany of GOP mistakes. And it sure does look looney to me.
Excellent summary of past 1.5 years, Thanks!
Wow John you have obsessed about the Libertarians for a while now. What, you think some of those voters would come to Tillis and close the gap with Hagan? You might be right but not sure I would label them Looney Tunes. Have you followed the NC Legislature for past couple of years? Libertarians or Libertarian candidates are by comparison are anything but Looney Tunes. Worry John, Tillis is in trouble and kicking sand in Haughs face want help your boy.
And Mark Walker, a NC GOP US House nominee and candidate, isn’t a walking looney tune? How about NC GOP State Senate nominee and candidate Molotov Mitchell?