The country has been in a cycle of wave elections since 2006. The only exception was 2012. However, while a GOP wave hit the rest of the nation in 2014, it missed North Carolina. Turnout in the state was normal for an off-year election and while Kay Hagan narrowly lost, Democrats added seats in the General Assembly. This year, North Carolina may be headed for a wave despite what happens in the rest of the country.
Waves happen because voter turnout on one side is motivated while the other is depressed. Early signs show just such a pattern in North Carolina. Dr. Michael Bitzer of Catawba College has been tracking the mail-in absentee ballots in North Carolina and the trend is ominous for Republicans. (If you’re not following Dr. Bitzer, why the hell not!?)
Republicans have always dominated mail-in absentee voting in North Carolina. The state makes it somewhat cumbersome and many of the people who participate are more upscale voters who know they will be out of town around the election. They are the country club Republicans who are also more educated than much of the GOP base.
At this point in the cycle, Democrats lead the Republicans in the number of ballots accepted by the Board of Elections. According to Bitzer, Democrat and Independent ballots accepted are up more than 15% over 2012. Republican ballots accepted are down more than 40%.
The uptick in Democratic and unaffiliated ballots indicate an organizational effort to increase participation in this method voting. The sharp Republican decline, though, reflects a depressed electorate. These are the voters that polls across the nation have suggested might take a pass on Trump.
Once again, North Carolina could forge its own path during the election. Like 2014, state issues are affecting the election as much as national ones. The loss of the NBA All-star game, the NCAA and ACC tournaments and numerous other business opportunities due to HB2 has soured voters on the GOP in the state. A stronger governor might provide a buffer from a Trump collapse, but McCrory is giving Republicans little reason to go to the polls. Republican Senator Richard Burr has built a career by staying largely undefined so his campaign won’t give voters a big incentive to protect him, either.
We still have more than month to go and the mail-in ballots could take a big turn but if the trend continues, it probably spells bad news for the GOP. Same-day early voting starts on October 20 and we’ll see if Republican turnout stays depressed. If it does, Democrats up and down the ballot in North Carolina will likely have a good night on November 8.
Graph: Credit Dr. Michael Bitzer, Catawba College
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
In reality, it is just this variety of disaster
that led to the failure of over a single-hundred business that operated out of the
twin towers after 9/11.
Walter, the key for judicial races is to have a sample “blue ballot” that volunteers distribute at the polls during early voting and election day.
It works.
The ballot should be given to all Democrats and Democratic UNA leaning voters.
When our supporters fill out the ballots from top to bottom and vote in all races we are much more competitive with a higher winning percentage.
In 2014 that is exactly how we won three statewide supreme court races and two appellate court races and a slew of down ballot races. (We finished 2nd and 3rd in the third appellate court race with a number of Democrats running. Unfortunately, unlike the Olympics where a silver and a bronze helps the team politics is frequently about the gold–winner take all.)
In closing, NC performed better than expected in 2014 despite serious national headwinds and outside money working against Democrats.
The models I saw based on potential democratic performance showed Senator Hagan with a vote deficit of over 100,000 before the election yet she finished only 45,608 votes behind Tillis.
Thomas is correct. The ingredients are there for a strong, blue wave in NC and if that occurs and Secretary Clinton wins NC we will be swearing in the first female president in January of 2017.
Thomas, I hope you are correct. In my race for Wake County District Court judge I would love to have informed voters who realize that my opponent became a judge 4 years out of law school while I have over 21 years experience and that my opponent was ranked in his peer review conducted by the NC Bar Association as tied for worst judicial scores amongst the 10 Wake County District Court judges running for re-election and tied for 3rd-worst amongst the 140 District Court judges running for re-election statewide. Informed voters for a low-level judicial race are few, unfortunately. A Democratic wave election could make up for a lack of informed voters since I am a Democrat and my opponent is a Republican. Our party affiliations will not be published on the ballot but will be indicated in the partisan slate sheets handed out at (I hope) all of the polling sites. We have 202 polling sites in Wake County.
If any readers care to support my campaign without spending any money, please go to my facebook site Rand For Judge and “like” that page. Small things add up. Thank you.