Marriage equality and midterms

by | Oct 13, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Editor's Blog, Gay Marriage, US Senate | 2 comments

A lot of pundits and political types are wondering how gay marriages in North Carolina will affect the US Senate race. The short answer? They won’t.

Like Obamacare, gay marriage has lost its luster for those folks in the middle who swing elections. For the same reason the Koch brothers and Harry Reid won’t influence their decisions, gay people getting married won’t either. That narrow group of people views politics from a self-interested perspective: How will this affect the lives of me and my family? For most people, marriage equality has little direct impact.

As for the GOP base, I’ve always assumed they were coming anyhow. They’ve been showing up regularly the past two cycles fueled by irrational anger at Obama for taking their guns, letting immigrants take their jobs, subverting the constitution, stealing their healthcare or some other imaginary fear. They might be a little more paranoid now, but they still can only vote once.

The question for Democrats was their base and the middle. In 2010, the base stayed home and Democrats lost the swing voters. This year, the base is coming. The Democratic base is fueled by anger at the General Assembly for very real legislation passed by Thom Tillis and his pals in the legislature.

But it’s not just the base that’s mad. Middle of the road North Carolinians who don’t like Obama or his health care law or, for that matter, the idea of gays marrying, blame Republicans for the cuts to education, disrespecting teachers, the stagnant economy and flat wages, especially since the GOP made such a big deal about a Carolina Comeback. Obamacare and gays marrying are background noise compared to figuring out how to pay rising bills with stagnant paychecks and watching schools cut programs and lay off teacher assistants.

We’ll hear a lot about activist judges overruling the will of the people and the right might howl a little louder, but they won’t convert any people to their cause. Their followers might need to take additional blood pressure pills, but don’t expect their anger to translate into significantly more votes. For every additional angry “patriot” who shows up at the polls, expect a happily idealistic youngster who believes, “See, my vote can make a difference.”

Graphic credit: Dr. Jon Epstein

2 Comments

  1. Mick

    I want to believe that all the publicity on same sex marriage, on the GOP-led 2012 NC marriage amendment, and on McCrory/Tillis/Berger’s strident and loud intolerance toward SSM will lead to a few more votes going toward Dem candidates than to GOP’ers. Most “in the middle” NC voters give equal hearing on most issues, and I just believe they would opt for fairness and equal rights to prevail over more government intervention in the household and in interpersonal relationships. And I actually think that peer pressure is starting to affect people’s position of SSM. Just a few years ago, one might have sided against SSM because most folks you knew in NC opposed it. Today, we know there’s been a positive shift in people’s and governments’ (and even many clerics’ and churches’) position on SSM, which can pull “late adopters” to that side of the matter.

  2. David E. Turner

    I worry more about the effects from the Ebola outbreak and ISIS. Fear motivates conservatives, and politicians are already trying to create wedges on both of these.

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