Marshall Favored to Win Sixth Term

by | Apr 29, 2016 | 2016 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics

North Carolina Secretary of State: Elaine Marshall (D, incumbent) vs. Michael LaPaglia (R)

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is as near an institution as there can be in the world of North Carolina politics. And that’s the central problem confronting her Republican challenger, Michael LaPaglia: institutions don’t topple easily. Marshall is the heavy favorite to win another four years in office.

Marshall was originally elected in 1996 to the Secretary of State job, where she upset no less than racing legend Richard Petty. Marshall’s slogan was “A serious candidate for a serious job” and voters agreed. Since then, Marshall has won reelection every four years thereafter. While her run for the U.S. Senate in 2010 didn’t work out, she’s now in her fifth term in her position on the Council of State.

LaPaglia is the owner of a consulting firm that works with museums and historic sites. He won the Republican primary over A.J. Daoud in what was considered an upset. Daoud would have received establishment support and resources in his bid to replace Marshall; it’s not clear that LaPaglia will get the same backing from the state party. The Republican is an advocate of the free market and feels that he will bring a more business-friendly attitude to the Secretary of State position.

That’s probably not enough to offset two of Marshall’s key assets: name recognition and gender. As political commentator John Davis noted, the women on the Council of State have the strongest job security in North Carolina politics thanks to the boost given to both incumbents and to women. Marshall has benefited from this in the past and should continue to benefit this year.

With LaPaglia such a heavy underdog, are there any circumstances in which he might prevail? There are, but it would take a Republican wave at the national and state level, and a campaign heavily emphasizing the need for a fresh face in the Secretary of State position. Polls show Democrats ahead in the presidential race and a tight contest for North Carolina governor, so at this time that doesn’t appear likely.

Therefore, a rating of somewhere between Likely Democratic and Solid Democratic for this race seems apt. Out of an abundance of caution, this one gets the former.

Race Rating: Likely Democratic

2012 Result
53.8% Marshall
46.2% Goodwin

Voter Registration
40.3% Democratic
30.5% Republican
28.7% Unaffiliated

70.3% White
22.3% Black
7.4% Other

Results in Other Elections

2014 Senate
48.8% Tillis
47.3% Hagan

2012 President
50.4% Romney
48.4% Obama

2012 Governor
54.6% McCrory
43.2% Dalton

2010 Senate
54.8% Burr
43.1% Marshall

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