Depending on which pollster you believe, Governor Pat McCrory is either very popular, or very unpopular.
Gravis Marketing finds the governor with an upside-down 33/49 approval and trailing Roy Cooper by 2 in the gubernatorial race. That’s terrible and means the governor is almost Perdue-like in popularity. Cooper’s name recognition also isn’t high so he has room to grow.
Civitas finds something completely different. The absolute value of McCrory’s approval spread is the same – 16 – but this time it’s a positive number. 53% approve, 37% disapprove. So according to Civitas, McCrory is downright popular. Usually an incumbent needs to have a negative rating in order to lose, so the governor should be considered the solid favorite heading into 2016.
This sort of disparity in pollsters’ numbers for McCrory has always been present, but never to this extent. So what gives? Well, Civitas also polled on Barack Obama and Richard Burr. They find Obama at -6 and Burr at +10. That’s higher than what other pollsters have found so maybe they just have a tendency to elicit more positive responses. So I don’t think McCrory is as popular as they have him.
Second, the polls were in the field at different times. The Gravis Marketing poll was in the field for only one day, on April 30th. Civitas, however, was in the field for three days, during which time news came that the state would have a surplus at the end of the year. This news may have enhanced respondents’ opinions of the governor, yielding an overall higher approval rating.
There’s a couple of problems with this theory, though. While the surplus news is great, it wasn’t that great and wouldn’t influence voters’ opinions of McCrory so dramatically. There’s just no way to reconcile the two polls. Because polling in general is getting increasingly unreliable, it’s important to take both findings with a grain of salt. And, when in doubt – as the case is now – just average them out. According to John Hood, the average of various polls yields a rating for McCrory of 42/42.
That sounds right. McCrory is far from his low point in 2013 but voters aren’t sold on him yet and are going to give a good hard look at Roy Cooper. The performance of the state economy next year will be a major determining factor in whether or not the governor gets a second term.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
I got a thing in my email asking me to approve through petition Roy Coopers request the legislature turn to working on real issues, without much specificity. At least I know via Facebook and my email every week what McCrory endorses, along with weekly announcements of jobs at this place or another.
No one hammers at the reality of poverty, which could at least be some alleviated by a raise in the minimum wage. I am suspicious that the jobs created don’t really raise labor out of poverty.
For the Governor and the legislatures to scream that they paid off a debt to the federal government that we are supposed to be a part of, screams also they feel well separated from our Union.
The religious Right gets its way screaming fear and ignorance. Here it is that Wilmington is supposed to have a movie and TV business, but the drunken aristocrats of Charleston are shown on Bravo having big times in nice places partying. Were is the Volvo plant going?
As an aerospace leader having Honda and the Honda jet, you might think somehow Honda would be used to the place. For car moving out and back for parts and even the completed cars to go to Europe or into Asia the 1300 foot long ships that most easily could dock at Morehead City ought be considered strongly as worthy of money and connectivity to the rest of the world. If there is one thing that will bear fruit for NC, the port and transportation infrastructure is crucial. At least I know McCrory is for the ports.
Far as laws, every misdemeanor or felony conviction of anyone in the nation for pot is a political persecution of those considered to not live right. Anyone in prison for pot is a political prisoner proving the hippies lost.
What specifically does Roy Cooper have to say about that? As State Attorney General you might expect him to see it.
I imagine it will go on as it has, only worse. All good will fall victim to ignorance, fear, and those who are poor will be kept so, for all the leadership does is sell everybody out as cheap.
By the time we do get around to casting votes, the only polls near worth paying attention to, will be from that Polling, for really everything you want to buy is just a lie package.
Both Civitas and John Hood are shameless hacks. The only difference is that Hood is more pretentious about it. Neither one should be taken seriously.