PPP’s latest poll was released yesterday. There’s not much to report here. Things are looking very stable. President Obama is, as always, underwater approval-wise. The governor’s race is looking like a toss-up at this point. Burr’s approval numbers aren’t that great and he’s quite anonymous, but he holds leads of 6 to 12 points against all of the Democrats PPP polled on.

Obama Approval
42% Approve (no change)
51% Disapprove (-2)

McCrory Approval
40% Approve (-1)
44% Disapprove (-1)

The same spread as last month. Typically, to even be vulnerable, incumbents have to have negative approvals, so Democrats have at least cleared that hurdle. While McCrory isn’t looking like the certain one-termer he appeared to be back in fall of 2013, and he might even be a very slight favorite, the 2016 contest looks like it will be quite competitive, at least at this very early stage.

Of the three firms that have surveyed NC recently, PPP shows McCrory with the worst numbers. Elon shows him at 41/41, and HPU’s numbers almost make the case that the governor is pretty popular, at 48/38. Average them together and you get 43% approve, 41% disapprove. This makes him, I believe, a very slight favorite going forward because the spread is positive and simply because it’s hard to dislodge an incumbent governor.

Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates’ Favorability
(Number in parentheses is net favorability. The number after it is the change in net favorability from last month.)
Roy Cooper 34/21 (+13) +12
Ken Spaulding 7/16 (-9) +5

There’s been a significant increase in Cooper’s favorable numbers since last month. I don’t think this can be attributed to anything, so pay attention as this might be a fluke. Cooper, the state’s Attorney General, hasn’t received much negative press lately so maybe his numbers are recovering, but one should look for additional polls for confirmation.

Gubernatorial Race
43% McCrory (-1)
41% Cooper (+2)

Last month, McCrory led by 5. This month, 2. Again, we will have to wait for next month’s poll to confirm whether this is true movement or not. In any case, the undecideds appear to be Democratic-leaning, and 43% is not a good place for an incumbent governor to be. McCrory might want to borrow from the playbook of Rick Scott of Florida, who was reelected despite having very high negatives.

For what it’s worth, McCrory leads Kenneth Spaulding, 44% to 35%.

Burr Approval
32% Approve (-2)
37% Disapprove (+2)

Burr’s approval bounces around from month to month, but it’s always in the 30s and there are always a whole bunch of people who don’t have an opinion on him one way or the other. Averaging all the recent polls together, Burr is at 33% approve, 33% disapprove, with the rest unsure. If 2016 is a good Democratic year, he will be a target.

Favorability, Democratic Candidates for U.S. Senate
Anthony Foxx 21/19 (+2) +12
Allen Joines 11/11 (+0)
Janet Cowell 14/16 (-2) no change
Kay Hagan 38/53 (-15) +1

U.S. Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx is the most popular of the Senate candidates, but PPP’s other surveys have shown him doing a lot worse in terms of favorability, so keep an eye out on further polls. Foxx has indicated to Burr he wouldn’t run anyway. Next is Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Joines, who we haven’t heard much from; voters don’t know who he is, but from the crosstabs it appears there is some goodwill for him in the Triad. State Treasurer Janet Cowell is at -2, while Kay Hagan is most unpopular at 38/53.

Given Hagan’s high negatives, why do Democrats want her to run so badly? In a word: money. She’s proven to be an adept fundraiser and will be able to put the pressure on Burr. The fundraising capability of other Democrats isn’t so clear. In addition, she’s a vetted candidate; nothing about her is going to come out that hasn’t already come out before. Everyone is still waiting on her to make her decision. If she declines, it appears Janet Cowell is the next person the party will turn to.

Senate Race, Head to Head
Burr 44% (-1)
Cowell 38% (no change)

Burr 50% (+2)
Hagan 43% (+1)

Burr 45% (-2)
Foxx 36% (no change)

Burr 45%
Joines 33%

Coming closest to Burr is Janet Cowell, who trails him by 6 points. Burr’s strongest lead is against Allen Joines, whom he beats by 12. Burr leads Hagan by 7 and Anthony Foxx by 9.

The bottom line: McCrory is in for a fight in 2016. The gubernatorial race will be a battle for the heart and soul of North Carolina and it should receive more attention than the Senate race. The unknown factor? Who wins the presidential election next year. It would be greatly to McCrory and Burr’s benefit if a Republican wins the White House. If that’s the case, then they’ve surely carried North Carolina, and the coattail effect could carry Burr and especially McCrory over the finish line.