More poll dancing

by | Feb 6, 2015 | Editor's Blog, Poll Analysis | 1 comment

Over the past week, I’ve seen three separate polls that look at the political environment in North Carolina. While some numbers differ, the trends are basically the same. North Carolina voters are starting to feel better about their personal situations. The mood of the state, and probably the country, is starting to catch up with the relatively good economic news we’ve been getting the past few months.

Two of the polls test right-track/wrong-track. While both show slightly more people saying the state is on the wrong track, the trends in both show the gap between right and wrong narrowing to within a very few points of each other. Last summer, both showed a double digit gap, with people far more pessimistic about the direction of the state.

There’s a little more disagreement in polls when it comes to individuals. The latest PPP poll shows that McCrory’s job performance is still underwater by about four points while the other two both show him in better territory. Civias shows him with a net 11 points positive and a third poll shows him at four points above water.

As for Obama, PPP has his job approval rate upside-down at 42-53. The other two polls have him in much better shape at 47-52 and 47-51 with the trends lines favoring the president.

The two polls that test Roy Cooper’s favorability have slightly differing numbers. One shows him largely undefined but in solid positive territory at 25-12 while the other has him 29-28. Both show a plurality can’t rate him, indicating Cooper is largely undefined in the minds of the voters.

Two-term US Senator Richard Burr is also largely undefined. Two polls test his favorability and find him slightly above water with about a third of voters viewing positively, but 43% in both polls have no opinion. The third poll tests his job performance rating and finds it split with about a with about a third each approving, disapproving. and not sure.

However, Burr is in better shape than Kay Hagan. The two polls that test her favorability both have her underwater with less than 10% undecided. They also both show Burr beating her by a few points in head-to-heads.

Overall, the political environment is getting a little more upbeat in North Carolina. Leaders in both parties are faring a bit better than they did a few months ago. However, nobody looks invulnerable. Burr is not well defined and McCrory still has lukewarm numbers though they are much better than they were a year ago. The governor benefited from the Senate race last year that kept him largely out of the spotlight. With the legislature back in session, he will be more visible in he coming months and with Republicans in the majority in the US Senate, Burr may find himself in the news a bit more. We’ll see if the increased attention helps or hurts them in the year before both face tough re-election battles.

1 Comment

  1. Blake

    I find it interesting that the right track/wrong track polls never ask the obvious question of “which track do you think we’re on”. Conservatives may say wrong track because it’s too far left, while liberals say wrong track because it’s too far right. Sen. Tillis recently said he wants to get the economy back on the right track. Maybe upward isn’t the direction he intends to take it.

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