Renee Ellmers’ chances of winning her primary in NC-02 just shot way up. Even though many conservatives are angered over her handling of the partial-birth abortion bill several months ago, division in their ranks could send Ellmers back to Washington, even with as much as 60% of the GOP voting against her. Remember NC’s unusual runoff rule: the threshold is 40%, not 50%. That 40% is all Ellmers needs to win the GOP nomination once again. The only question was whether or not the anti-Ellmers vote would be split.
Yesterday, we got an answer when economist Frank Roche, Ellmers’ challenger from 2014, announced that he was once again going to run for the seat. Roche got a respectable 41% last year even though he raised a paltry amount. It’s likely that the conservative insurgency is going to unite behind Duncan, but Roche has some name recognition and will retain at least some of his support.
The “nightmare scenario” for the congresswoman has always been a two-way contest against a credible challenger from the right. With Roche’s announcement, it looks like that scenario has been avoided, or at least postponed. And there’s still the possibility that yet further entrants could complicate things for the Tea Party. Ironically, the very perception of Ellmers’ vulnerability might go a long way to ensuring she returns to Congress.
What that means is that all Ellmers needs to do, in all likelihood, is just get to 40%. For an incumbent U.S. Representative, that should be a breeze. The question is: can she do it, or is conservative discontent with the incumbent so widespread that even that low hurdle is too much for her? It’s too early to say, but we do know Ellmers will have the funds to define herself in a positive way to voters – pro-life, conservative, tough on immigration and the debt. In the end, a well-executed campaign can cover over a multitude of sins.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
If Renee runs again – IF is the key word! We need a conservative in DC who actually votes like a conservative. Jim Duncan can win and serve the will of the people in the 2nd district.
No, we need a person who can debate, listen to the facts and determine what is best for the People who live in this country. We do not need someone who blindly follows a dogmatic path with no regard for the rights of all, and what might be best for the people they represent
As we all recall the conservatives had Renee in their sights in the last go round and she sailed right on through. The conservatives were going to elect Greg Brannon.
One thing is for sure. The conservatives talk a good game. However, I think they have all gotten old and never do get out of the house much. It is one thing to troll the internet and another thing to get out the vote.
If Renee runs again I doubt any of the neo-cons will walk over her.
A presidential election year means higher turnout. The presence of more normal people voting will dilute the influence of the right wing nut jobs. With two opponents and the low bar of 40% to secure the nomination I think she’s a good bet.
I’d bet beer on it.
Ellmer’s will not win and Duncan is the one that will not unseat her.