In my last post, I predicted that Phil Berger Jr. would win the runoff, and it wouldn’t be that close. Well, I got the second part right. Walker clobbered Berger, 60-40. So, what happened? The biggest takeaway from this race: Candidates in today’s GOP have to work extremely hard to prove that they’re not establishment or “insiders”. If that’s the case, then Berger Jr. had a huge handicap the moment he got into the race.
But, despite Berger’s status as the “insider” candidate, I thought he was well-positioned. Most establishment candidates are vulnerable not because of who their family is but because of the tone-deaf positions they take which are anathema to the conservative base. But Berger was 100% ideologically pure. There was no way to get to the right of him. And his father was leader of the legislative chamber thought to be the more conservative of the two, so the family name would probably be an asset if anything.
Instead, it was Walker who seemed to have politically unorthodox positions. On immigration especially, he faltered. Immigration remains the biggest issue on GOP voters’ minds right now, and Berger seized on this issue to cast Walker as a wishy-washy waffler. Walker said he opposed amnesty and wanted tighter border security, but conceded that he didn’t have “all the answers.” After Walker fumbled on the amnesty issue, I thought this race was over. Giving the wrong answer on illegal immigration has ended the candidacies of so many Republicans in the past, most prominently Rick Perry and Eric Cantor.
Berger Jr.’s biggest weaknesses on the “issues” side? One, he opposed term limits. That was a red flag to many voters already suspicious of Berger. Second, he pledged to support John Boehner and the GOP leadership. Walker clearly stated his opposition and said his support would go to Trey Gowdy for Speaker.
Authenticity, not ideology
In the end, authenticity trumped ideology. Berger ran the perfect campaign. He raised a ton of money, blasted his opponent with negative ads, said all the right things, held the right views. And yet, he couldn’t shake the “insider” label. Tea Party types don’t just want to restore the country to our founding principles, they want to fundamentally transform the culture of Washington. Runoff voters, who tend to be much more engaged and well-informed, saw Berger Jr. as the perfect pre-packaged political candidate, who would say all the right things and then go on to do more of the same in Washington. The type of media-heavy campaign he ran would have worked fine in a typical primary, but in a low-turnout runoff, concentration on ground game is essential and Walker appears to have done a much better job on this front.
It did not help that Berger failed to connect with voters on a personal level; he did not appear authentic. In addition, the negative campaign he waged against Walker backfired. If the voters knew anything about the candidates, it was that Berger Jr. was the Senate leader’s son and that Walker was the nice minister from Greensboro. The combination of being perceived as the anti-establishment candidate, and his overlooked ability to mobilize Christian conservatives, contributed to Walker’s impressive victory.
What this race wasn’t about
I’ve heard a few liberals on Twitter suggest that Berger’s loss represents a backlash against the legislature. Basically, the legislature is so extreme that even the hardcore conservatives who voted in yesterday’s runoff wanted to send a message, by punishing Berger. That’s just not the case. The legislature had almost nothing to with this race. Instead, the perception that Berger Jr. was the handpicked candidate of the Washington establishment was the decisive factor. This result shouldn’t worry Thom Tillis or any other North Carolina Republicans. The Republican candidate who should be worried? Lamar Alexander of Tennessee.
Going forward
In a classy move, Berger Jr. immediately endorsed the campaign of Mr. Walker. Walker is heavily favored in November against former UNC Counsel Laura Fjeld. It’s possible Walker will be an even stronger opponent for Fjeld than Berger would have been. Berger would have had more money behind him, but as we’ve seen, money isn’t everything, and Walker as the Republican nominee makes it harder for Fjeld to make the race a referendum on the Republican-controlled General Assembly.
Changing the subject a little bit, the General Assembly needs to end their short session, like, yesterday. It’s gone on too long and is starting to remind voters what they don’t like about their legislature. PPP will be polling North Carolina this weekend. I expect the results to show that the legislature has further diminished in popularity, that Kay Hagan’s lead has grown to 6-8 points, and that Democrats have taken the lead on the generic legislative ballot. The General Assembly needs to wrap up their session, quickly. Failure to do so will endanger not only Tillis, but a number of vulnerable legislative Republicans in November.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
John, John, John……… You blew your prediction not because Berger Jr. did anything wrong or Walker did everything right. And not because Jr. was viewed as daddy’s boy, or that Walker was a “nice minister.” You actually mentioned the little thing that tripped you up. Tone-deafness. But not only on the part of the “establishment” Republicans (and those of them who package party candidates), but also on the part of the extremist fringe that now lord over your party. Establishment GOPers can’t hear or appreciate just how against the tide the core of their party has become on fiscal and social policies, while strident arch-conservatives and TP’ers in the GOP simply do not want to hear anything from a candidate that may even remotely sound like bi-partisanship, compromise, compassion, finding common ground, evenhandedness, or moderation. And those extreme zealots are the ones who show up for summer run-offs.
This district may be too gerrymandered to avoid NC electing another narrow-minded TP’er to Congress this fall. But given all the verbal miscues Walker has already made in his campaign, my guess would be that he makes a few more, which may give Fjeld just enough room to sneak in.