There’s so much to say about the Republican runoff in NC-06 it’s hard to know where to start. First, Laura Fjeld won the primary. Second, we now know what would have happened to Thom Tillis in a runoff and, after the Cantor and Cochran races, the Republican establishment should be scared shitless. Third, the laws of unintended consequences are visiting the GOP redistricting. And finally, Sean Hough, meet your target audience.
In a district as heavily gerrymandered as the Sixth, Laura Fjeld needs some big breaks. She just got one. Mark Walker may have appealed to the deeply conservative base in the low-turnout primary and runoff, but he’ll need serious resources to reach a general election audience. Fjeldt already has a money advantage and the DCCC, Planned Parenthood and EMILY’s List are surely taking a closer look at this race now. In November, we’ll find out if independent voters will go with a moderate Democrat or stick with a socially conservative Republican.
Phil Berger, Jr. didn’t just lose. He got trounced. Granted he ran a lousy campaign, but Tuesday’s vote was a rejection of establishment politics. Had Thom Tillis faced a runoff, he likely would have been making a concession speech similar to Berger’s. The GOP establishment is clearly in trouble. Their right flank is more conservative than the state as a whole, but it increasing controls the primary process.
Which leads to redistricting. The GOP legislators who drew the districts in 2011 meant to protect GOP gains. However, in the Sixth District, they’ve created an opening for Democrats by nominating someone outside of the mainstream. Less partisan redistricting may have given moderate Republicans a stronger hand.
Finally, Sean Hough has a clear target audience in his race for US Senate. The GOP rank-and-file is clearly not happy with the establishment and nobody is more establishment than the Speaker of the House. Haugh’s libertarian views might not sit well with social conservatives but they should appeal to the Tea Party. That’s where he could draw serious votes.
In NC-06, Republicans have a race on their hands. At the very least, they will have to spend substantial resources to hold the seat–resources they hoped were going into other competitive districts. But Mark Walker’s victory highlights the existential threat to establishment Republicans. If the conservatives get too much control, they could move the party to the right of the state’s moderate electorate, opening the door for Democrats, especially in statewide races and districts with more urban/suburban populations.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
If you like your current lying senator, you can keep your current lying senator…period.
Laura Fjeld, moderate?
We can agree that the establishment Republicans are in trouble, as is Fjeld. The margin of victory in November may be bigger for Walker.
Well Thomas if only Tillis was as cleaver and witty as your responses to your post . If he were he actually might win the Senate race against Hagan and whats his name. But alas, he is not.
Wishful Dreams. Walker, if he continues continues his low-budget, grass roots level approach, will beat the established Democrat as handily as he did the established Republican.
Amen!!!
(it’s Sean Haugh please!)
http://www.WriteInRhodes.org the NC movement to add John Rhodes as an official write in candidate!
I really enjoyed explaining to the Hagan volunteer why I could not vote for either one…
Nothing screams establishment like being endorsed by the tea party express like Berger. The TPE has endorsed nothing but establishment backed candidates across the nation. Oops. If NC Dems keep plugging their ears and screaming “GOP Civil War” maybe we’ll eventually start to believe it, because the NC Dems are surely firing on all cylinders in a unified front, nothing to see there.
But then again, if Tillis was in a runoff, I’m sure his likely opponent’s half million dollar lawsuit for misleading investors would have surely sealed the upset like Dave Brat’s and Chris McDaniel’s. Oh wait, none of those have anything in common. Obviously Tillis was such a poor candidate and scared that he compelled voters to help win outright, I mean that margin doesn’t mean anything.
So Walkers decisive margin of victory means he is in trouble in November, and Tillis’ slim margin of victory also means he is in trouble. Oh wait, I found the constant,… The problem is that they are BOTH Republicans. Nailed it.
Next up: A Tillis Win in 2014 Could Spell Doom for His 2020 Re-Election
That’s funny right there. And correct.