One of the biggest talking points used by NC Democrats in the aftermath of the 2012 elections was the victories by NC Republicans up and down the ballot were solely due to gerrymandering. Well that talking point is kaput. Last month, the NC GOP clearly won the popular vote for Congress and for the General Assembly. Redistricting might have helped pad the GOP’s majorities, but ultimately it was the voters who put them in charge.
For U.S. Congress, Republicans took 55.6% of the vote to Democrats’ 44.1%. Excluding the results of the 9th district, where Pittenger was running unopposed, the tally is 52.85% for the GOP and 46.85% for the Democrats. Just remember that when you taking out the 9th district, you’re taking out a chunk of the state which voted for Romney and Tillis by double-digits. (Democrats won the popular vote for Congress in 2012 – 50.6% D, 48.8% R, 0.7% other. That’s thanks to the efforts of Reps. Kissell and McIntyre keeping their districts close.)
For the NC Senate, the GOP won 53.81% of the popular vote to 45.29% for Democrats. In the process they won 34 seats, or 68% of the total seats.
In the NC House, the GOP took 54.12% compared to the Democrats’ 43.86%. Ironically, the GOP did better in the popular vote for the House than they did in 2012 but lost a net of 3 seats, while in the Senate they actually gained a seat. In the end, Republicans ended up with 62% of seats. Still a disproportionate number of seats compared to the popular vote, not that much of a skew.
In Congress, the closest race was in the 13th, won by George Holding by 14.62%. Holding actually improved on his initial victory from 2012, when he won by 13.60%. But he did worse in Wake County – but only slightly. In 2012 he won his portion of Wake with 54.69%, in 2014 with 54.36%. Of the GOP-held congressional seats, this is the one that Democrats have the best chance of picking up going forward. By the end of the decade, in an open seat race and in a neutral environment, I imagine that the GOP would be only slightly favored. It would not be all that shocking, then, if the GOP maintains a 10-3 majority in the congressional delegation through 2023.
As far as the General Assembly goes, Democrats would need a substantial popular vote margin to take back either chamber. A 2006 or 2008-style wave would be the bare minimum, and even that probably wouldn’t do it – probably a 55-43 margin for legislative Democrats, at the least. Democrats will say publicly that their aim is to take back the majority, but realistically the best they can hope for is to eliminate the GOP’s veto-proof majorities and elect Roy Cooper to the governor’s mansion in 2016. If that happens, then we’re back to the situation we had under Bev Perdue – a lot of gridlock with the legislature calling most of the shots. For Democrats, it would be far from an ideal situation, but still a start in the right direction.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Would it have changed anything if the 50,000 voters were all Democrats and voted for Democrats. In other words, was the election rigged? Or 50,000 more votes wouldn’t have changed anything.
but, but you forgot to include the effects of “virtual Gerrymandering ” ie restrictive voting rules such as allowing voting only in your assigned voting locations on election day reinforcing the Gerrymandering lines drawn . 50,000 or more were turned away because they went to there old districts enough to change the outcome of the US senate race ..
“In the end, Republicans ended up with 62% of seats. Still a disproportionate number of seats compared to the popular vote, not that much of a skew.”
Not that much of a skew?! That 8-point difference amounts to 10 seats, or a 20-seat marginal swing, in the state House. That’s a huge skew.
If seats were allocated proportionally to the popular vote, Democrats would have 56 or 57 seats, and Republicans 63 or 64. That would’ve meant Democrats would’ve lost what should have been their majority after 2012. We’d be living in very different times.
Wow, this is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read. First, the headline “NC GOP Won Popular Vote”. Really ?!? So I guess THAT explains why Tillis won the Senatorial race. Now I understand. That’s some first class journalism. Second is the assertion that this somehow disproves charges of gerrymandering (of US House districts). That’s ridiculous; Republicans won 56% of the popular vote, but 77% of the state’s House delegation. I’d say gerrymandering is alive and well.
What’s odd to me is how democrats seemed to be posed to make such large gains last year during the height of the Moral Monday protests when the G.A. was making little if any effort to appear moderate…I think I recall a few polls where democrats were regularly leading by like 5-10% on the generic ballot in NC…then in the end the GOP ends up winning the popular vote by 5ish% just 1 year later…I know alot of it seems to be wave related but it always amazes me how voters seem to have such short memories when it comes to election day….or how they rate the General Assembly so poorly yet keep voting for the same incumbants over and over…
Polls are for driving and creating news… PPP is notorious for flawed polls (they predicted Scott Walker loosing all 3 times). Toss in the slanted media and there is a good reason you saw such numbers. typically the polls reflect reality toward the finish to preserve some credibility going forward… but.
The wee bit of gerrymandering sure hits a nerve w/ the left. Seeing as they have held the state since the Klan impeached Gov Holding up until the NC Supreme court castrated the 10 seat advantage they had in both houses in Stephenson v. Bartlett in 96( gerymaderus maximus)… they have had plenty o time to build structures in the state to foster dependency on the democrat party.
People are waking up. There is a reason for the flood from the southern border… they are to replace those sleep walkers who’s eyes have cracked at the smell of coffee.
This argument is disingenuous on a number of fronts; first, it does nothing to disprove the assertion that Democrats will win the popular vote in presidential election years thanks to better turnout; second, Democrats would recruit better candidates – or just simply a candidate – in more districts if there weren’t such a partisan gerrymander; third, a narrow 53%-47% victory shouldn’t result in a 10-3 delegation in the house.
Voters are also less likely to bote if they think their vote won’t matter. There were no nationally targeted US House races in NC this year, which means the national parties saw no race as competitive (NC-02 was listed as an emerging race by the DCCC but was never targeted). Why would people turn out to vote if it seems like every race is already decided?
Republicans clearly did better in 2014 than in 2012. That doesn’t change the fact that their partisan gerrymander of legislative districts gives them a sizable advantage that will continue to produce General Assembly chambers and a congressional delegation that do not reflect the will of North Carolina voters.
Of course the GOP won the popular vote….only a minority of the voters voted. So I suppose winning by a few points of the minority of voters warrants a blog post by John.
Although there was a drop off to the judicial races, Democrats did in fact win three statewide races for NC Supreme Court, two for appellate court and finished second and third in the other race. In addition, in competitive races down ballot Democrats won almost 55% of the races and now control 5 of the 7 Triangle J counties after picking up control of the board of commissioners in Chatham, Lee and Wake.
“Democrats will say publicly that their aim is to take back the majority, but realistically the best they can hope for is to eliminate the GOP’s veto-proof majorities and elect Roy Cooper to the governor’s mansion in 2016.”
I’d have to agree with you on this, John, but probably with a different insight as to why.
First and foremost, the extreme GOP gerrymandering of 2011 will work against the usual ebbng of the shelf-life of reapportioned districts. Typically, with each passing year between censuses/decadal reapportionment, the influence of gerrymandering in districts wanes. But, the digitized data, mapping and software-aided GOP gerrymandering of 2011 was very effective done, which will slow the rate of fading of gerrymanders.
And secondly, with signs that the Gov and many GOP reps in the NCGA are moderating (seeing some handwriting on the wall that their extreme agenda of 2010-2014 can come back to haunt them, me thinx), the NCGOP will try to put distance between their 2016 candidates and their recent legislative history. While this could anger the GOP’s nutzoid TP base and result in some primary losses among incumbents, it could play well enough among very gullible NC voters in the middle to limit any Dem wave.
I see Senator Cruz and his buddies are planning to shut the funding down to operate the federal government. This may sound like a macho thing, but I am certain it will not in the long haul play out well in North Carolina. A sizable portion of the NC economy is linked to the federal government like active and retired military for openers. Vet. Hospitals, educational programs are right in there. Most folks are unaware that NC demands more of the federal treasury then it pays back in terms of taxes. I hope republican voters look closely at this and take this into consideration in future elections. Follow the voting of your senator and congressmen on this issue. I would be interested to see how they justify voting along party lines to their constituents.
They would not do the “shutting” that would be the chap with the pen scratching VETO on the budget bill…