NC Republicans Want Carson in ’16

by | Dec 15, 2014 | Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features | 5 comments

According to PPP, Ben Carson is the preference of a plurality of North Carolina Republicans. That’s not surprising. The conservative neurosurgeon has pretty good name recognition for someone who doesn’t hold public office and hits all the right notes with the base. Carson is tied with Hillary Clinton in the general election and leads both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. Here are the results for the GOP primary:

Ben Carson – 19%
Jeb Bush – 15%
Chris Christie – 14%
Mike Huckabee – 14%
Paul Ryan – 11%
Rick Perry – 7%
Ted Cruz – 5%
Rand Paul – 5%
Marco Rubio – 4%

On the Democratic side of things, Clinton is the overwhelming preference of Democrats, both nationwide and in North Carolina. The Democratic primary probably won’t be competitive unless Elizabeth Warren runs – and if she does, Clinton better watch out.

On the other hand, the GOP primary will be extremely interesting. There’s a number of big names that might run – even Mitt Romney is apparently taking another look at it. There will be the well-known Republican heavyweights and some new faces. All in all, there are about 15-20 candidates seriously looking at the race. The numbers will probably dwindle down before next spring but those are going to be some crowded debate stages.

Republican nominations tend to follow a pattern. While the heart of the GOP base is with the conservatives, usually a moderate and more specifically the choice of the establishment carries the day. Perhaps the big question to ask then is who the establishment wants. Christie? Bush? Romney?

That said, just because there’s been a streak of the nomination going to the establishment favorite doesn’t mean it’s going to continue in 2016. But the very large field does seem to assure that the nomination will eventually go to a heavyweight, someone who’s already well-known, rather than someone unknown to the general public like John Kasich or Mike Pence. In short, any candidate who wants to pursue a Carter ’76 strategy is probably going to face more significant hurdles than usual.

Still, keep an eye on Carson. His name recognition is surprisingly high for such an unknown quantity. Many Republicans already know who he is – and like him. In fact, the general public, not just Republicans, seems to like him too. Statewide, he’s at 31/19 in terms of favorability, which in this political environment is outstanding. With Republicans, he’s at 47/12. In the primary, voters in the 919 area code like him best. His favorability there is 61/2.

Most observers seem to think Carson will flame out as he becomes better known but that’s not a given. I don’t think he’ll be the nominee but there’s a good chance he’ll enjoy frontrunner status for a little while. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t. He ticks off all the right boxes for the average GOP voter. He’s very conservative, unafraid to be controversial, and wicked smart. The presidential election might not be an IQ test but if it was he’d win it going away. If nothing else, he’ll be a contender and someone who could help broaden the GOP’s appeal with African American voters.

5 Comments

  1. Katy

    The base, which I am a part of, does NOT regard minorities as a threat. We welcome minorities as we believe that the Democratic Party has taken them for granted for too long. You are right, Dr. Ben Carson is a favorite.

    I am not a libertarian Republican and I wouldn’t support Paul unless he were the nominee. Even then I’d have problems with it. I might actually look at supporting the Democrats if you guys didn’t nominate a far left candidate. No Hillary, for example. JMHO.

    I really like your blog. For a lefty, you are quite fair and I’m going to link to you on this article. Thanks.

  2. Penny Sandrock

    Carson is an arrogant ego driven man with absolutely no appeal in most of the black community and probably not much in the liberal white once he opens his mouth. The republicans like him because he spouts their most cherished views, but vote for him, we will see.

  3. George

    Rubio and Carson is the ticket.

  4. larry

    Oh do republicans….nominate Carson…and and and ..how bout Cruz for VP or Paul VP or Paul Prez and Carson VP….wow…oh wow…do …pleez Do you really believe that Carson will help with African American voters bringing them along to vote for the GOP? Really? oh do do nominate him and since Cruz is Canadian-Cuban…a diverse dream ticket for you boys. Wow.

  5. lily

    Very talented individual, which is not the norm for republican candidates. Of course, he is obviously a minority, the base regards as a threat. The notion that republicans vote to protect themselves from minorities, foreigners, gays and liberals coming to get their guns will be a definite issue. Moreover, flexibility in republican thinking is not likely to happen. It could cause a rash of medical visits for unexplained problems.

Related Posts

GET UPDATES

Get the latest posts from PoliticsNC delivered right to your inbox!

You have Successfully Subscribed!