There’s good news and bad news for Thom Tillis in the latest poll from Civitas. The bad news? Tillis still trails Hagan, 41-39. The good news? In a head-to-head, without Sean Haugh, the result is the reverse, and Tillis is up by 2 points, 45-43.
Three-way
Change is from last Civitas poll
41% Hagan (-1)
39% Tillis (+3)
7% Haugh (-2)
Head-to-head
45% Tillis (+2)
43% Hagan (-4)
The three-way numbers are an illustration of where the race currently stands. The head-to-head is likely where this race is headed because Haugh is likely to lose support. Don’t shoot the messenger; it’s a perfectly valid assumption that the Libertarian won’t get more than 3% of the vote in the end. I would not, however, make the mistake of saying Haugh will be a non-factor and the Tillis people shouldn’t worry about him. They should. The rest of this analysis is going to look at the three-way contest:
Crosstabs
Registered Republicans
74% Tillis
6% Haugh
5% Hagan
15% Undecided
Registered Democrats
70% Hagan
14% Tillis
5% Haugh
11% Undecided
Registered Unaffiliateds
42% Hagan
34% Tillis
12% Haugh
12% Undecided
White
51% Tillis
30% Hagan
7% Haugh
12% Undecided
Black
69% Hagan
9% Tillis
5% Haugh
17% Undecided
Other Race
75% Hagan
12% Tillis
10% Hagan
3% Undecided
Men
44% Tillis
37% Hagan
6% Haugh
13% Undecided
Women
45% Hagan
35% Tillis
7% Haugh
13% Undecided
Averaging the Polls
Polls included: Civitas, Gravis, YouGov, PPP
Hagan – 43%
Tillis – 40%
Haugh – 6%
The bottom line: take every poll with a grain of salt, especially partisan polls (that includes PPP!). When in doubt, go with the average of all the polls. So far, it shows Hagan with a small lead, but that’s based on mostly registered voter polls and a Libertarian taking quite a bit of support away from Tillis, not to mention coming out of a fractious legislative session. With that in mind, I think the fundamentals of this race still favor Tillis. Hagan’s only shot is to eviscerate him totally and to hope state issues trump national politics. Is that possible?
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
She’s up and 17% of African Americans are undecided.
Another demopublican-skewed sample.
D share of electorate: 42%
D share sample: 44%
R share of electorate: 31%
R share of sample: 35%
Other share of electorate: 27%
Other share of sample: 21%
“Tillis is forced to contend with incredibly low approval numbers; both personally and in terms of the statewide perception of the legislature. Tillis has a 24% favorability rating compared to 47% unfavorable. The Legislature has a 19% approval rating and a 57% disapproval rating; even among Republican voters the Legislature faces a 44% disapproval while only 31% of Republicans approve of the Legislature. In addition, statewide Republicans within the Legislature have a 31% favorability rating to 52% unfavorable.
Hagan herself is facing an uphill battle in terms of approval, 40% of statewide voters approve of Hagan’s job performance to 50% who disapprove. Hagan has a stronger base than Tillis does. Hagan’s approval among Democrats is at 66% while Tillis’ favorability among Republicans is only 39%.” -PPP
“…I think the fundamentals of this race still favor Tillis.”
WHY? The undecideds are conservatives who love what the NCGA just did? NC parents are thrilled with the education budget just passed? Everyone can’t wait for fracking to start in NC? What voters are thrilled with what just happened in the last session? Is anyone?
Tillis is inept – at best – in campaigning. He’s lied about his college degree; he’s lied about the “biggest raise ever” to teachers. Let’s all throw steak and salmon on the BBQ! Hagan is bad because… she’s bad! Vote for TIllis because… well because Hagan is bad! That’s some very uninspiring campaigning he’s engaged in lately.
If Art Pope’s very conservative organization has Tillis up by 2 points – and that’s IF the Libertarian drops out – that’s worrisome news for NCGOP. Keep in mind, there are likely to be A LOT of interest in casting a protest vote for the Libertarian instead of for the Democrat or Republican. This is a state roiling in voter discontent. The undecideds will anoint the winner in this race.
Not at all sure you can discount PPP because of alleged partisan slant. Historically…they are the guys that get it right. YouGov has flawed methodology.. Civitas is certainly partisan as an operating subsidiary of Variety Wholesale. Gravis has a spotty track record. So you can dismiss PPP but you know full well that folly don’t you?