With President Obama by his side, Vice President Joe Biden announced in the Rose Garden that he’s not making a White House run. That ought to come as a relief to the Hillary Clinton campaign. A Biden run would make for a more competitive primary and would hinder her path to the nomination.

Now that Biden’s out, there are really only two “serious” candidates for the nomination now: Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Democrats by and large like Sanders, and as he’s gotten more attention, Democrats have started to like him a lot more.

The problem for Sanders is that for most Democrats, Hillary is their top choice and they don’t see any reason to make the switch. Her superb performance in the first debate alleviated concerns about her electability. I wonder if it was a factor in Biden’s decision not to run. She has strong support from women, older voters, and African Americans. The Bernie supporters might be more vocal but they’re probably not big enough to carry their candidate to victory.

October 2015 might well be remembered as the best month for the Hillary campaign. After a summer where she looked weak and tired, her campaign has been reinvigorated by a solid debate performance (which brought with it a gift from her rival Sanders). After shaky numbers in the early states, the latest polls have her ahead in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Even if Clinton falters in the first two contests, her strength with black voters was always going to make it difficult for Sanders to prevail in states like South Carolina. With Biden out, she no longer has to be concerned about a division in their ranks. A Biden campaign would have made things interesting and perhaps could have even given Sanders an opening. Without him, the math for a Sanders nomination doesn’t add up.

The Democratic field is settled. Nobody else is going to jump in. The vice president’s plans were the last piece of the puzzle. It’s now a Clinton/Sanders race, and right now both contenders seem happy to run on their records and not go negative. It’s not at all like where we were eight years ago, when there was a solid faction of Democrats mobilized against Clinton.

People may disagree, but Sanders seems like more of a “message” candidate than someone actually trying to become President. Biden was always going to be the more serious threat. Before his announcement, Clinton was a heavy favorite to be the nominee. After today, she’s more or less got the nomination wrapped up in my opinion.

Biden was always going to be the “BREAK GLASS IN CASE OF EMERGENCY” candidate for the Democratic establishment. His non-candidacy is an indication that there’s no emergency. After a great debate performance and the collapse of Benghazi as a campaign issue, it’s full-speed ahead for the Clinton campaign. If the rest of the campaign goes as well for her as this month has, she’ll be the next president.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.