Contrary to what so many Democrats would like to believe, Kay Hagan and the Democrats could not have saved themselves by wrapping themselves around Obama’s accomplishments. On the contrary, when Obama told an audience that even though he wasn’t on the ballot, his policies were, he sealed the Democrats’ fate. In states like North Carolina, where Democratic candidates were trying to focus on local issues, Obama reminded voters that the election was really about him and his record.
The list of Obama’s accomplishments might be long and impressive, but few voters are feeling their impact. Democratic candidates like Alison Grimes were silly to try to distance themselves from Obama by refusing to say they voted for him, but embracing him wouldn’t have been smart either. A solid majority of voters say they disagree with him and his policies.
Despite what too many commentators are saying, Kay Hagan never ran from the president. She greeted him at the airport in Charlotte just two months before the election. She never denied voting for Obama for president.
Unemployment may be down, the stock market may be at record highs and we may have the longest stretch of job growth since World War II but the people who determine elections don’t know it. More importantly, they don’t care. Until a majority of people feel secure in their jobs, see their incomes going up, their debt going down and believe their children have a brighter future, Democrats don’t have much of a record to run on–despite the accomplishments. You cannot win elections spouting statistics.
Another myth is that if Hagan and other Democrats had embraced the president, minorities would have voted in heavier numbers. In North Carolina, at least, African-Americans voted at roughly the same rate as everybody else and at a higher level than they did in 2010. It appears that African-Americans made up 21% of the electorate last Tuesday and another percentage point, or even two, would not have been enough to change the outcome of the election. Besides, bringing Obama into the state would also have motivated the opposition, offsetting some of the Democratic gains.
Make no mistake. In North Carolina, African-American voters pulled their weight. It’s white voters that lost the election for Hagan. They voted for Tillis by almost 2-1.
Since Obama’s 2008 win in North Carolina, Democrats have based a substantial part of their strategy on shaping the electorate, especially in midterm elections. The 2014 election proved that strategy is not realistic. The very best of turnout operations may be able to increase turnout by four or five percent, but the Republicans’ operations are offsetting any major margin of victory. The success of the GOTV programs on both sides resulted in a turnout in North Carolina substantially higher than the nation as a whole.
Instead of relying so heavily on shaping the electorate, Democrats are going to have to win the argument with swing voters. That doesn’t mean they need to become more conservative. It means they need an economic message that speaks to the concerns of working class families of all colors that increases wages, reduces economic uncertainly and offers hope that the next generation can have a brighter future than we can offer today.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
It just blows my mind that even the Democrats don’t talk about the electronic voting machines in Greensborough that when you pressed Hagen, Tillis was voted for.
At least using Obama and Obamacare would have been fighting the good fight. Hagan had no positive platfrom (neither did she have a positive platform in 2008, but she rode the Obama coattails). Amazingly poor use of millions of dollars of campaign funds when the same people who benefit from Obamacare and would benefit from an expansion of Medicaid are persuaded to vote against her. None of the campaign workers I talked to had ever met her (in August), she reserved her efforts for raising money for puny attacks. On the bright side, it’s now relatively safe to watch TV (so guess I’m agreeing with Bill Bush).
I was as sick of her commercials as I was of his. Failed to rally the troops. Failed to support Obama, who has positives with her potential voters. Nothing will make the Faux Snooze/racism crowd vote for her. I would have sent her $$ if I had seen one ad that made me think she was taking the fight to Tilllis. She even failed to call him out on the VA business.
As a teacher in Wake Co. let me add that we voted for a Democratic county commission instead of Republican because of the assault on teachers in our county. Hagan’s message about teachers probably resonated at a local level but not statewide. Additionally, the gay marriage issue is one that will always be first and foremost in the pulpits on Sunday morning because as a state, it was voted on and overwhelmingly voted against. We are after all, in the Bible Belt. And lastly the uninformed vote by what the preacher says and the bigots on the color of the President’s skin.
And the sad thing about it is that Gays will still have their civil rights, as they should and people of colour will always be here; but the lives of those anti-voters won’t improve.
So why would they have shot themselves in the foot?
“Unemployment may be down, the stock market may be at record highs and we may have the longest stretch of job growth since World War II but the people who determine elections don’t know it.” Wrong! The people who determine elections know these facts quite well, so they crafted the Republican victory around fear (ebola and ISIS) and personal attacks. Republicans are masters at stirring up emotional issues – Democrats need to take a lesson on this. Next time let Steven Spielberg run the media campaign!
I disagree to some extent. The Republicans, as I stated, made Obama the issue, and maligned him massively and extensively over long periods of time. People voted against Obama more than they voted for Republicans.
But you do have to give credit to those people who are just plain stupid. You can’t explain things to stupid and hateful folk. They are a lost cause.
So which of Obama’s policies did the people of NC not like? Was it health care, his push for
increasing minimum wages, equal pay for women?
Could it be the people here are racist? Those to whom I have spoken seem to only get the FOX agenda, have no idea about the deficit or even what Obama’s policies are.
Excellent question J Sykes. I just don’t understand people who are upset because they might be able to live a better life. It’s the craziest thing I have ever heard.
I wouldn’t change a thing. Do exactly the same thing in 2016 and I am sure the electorate will come around.
Thomas
No one in the Democratic pundocracy ever seems to take into effect a national and multistate assault on Obama for six years, costing perhaps $4 billion and operative every hour of every day on every issue, as long as they saw a black man in their White House — and Democrats ignored that echo chamber and did not take it into account. GOP strategy was simple, make the issue Obama, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly and annually, and never concede anything. It worked in 2010 and 2014 for sure and was a factor in 2012. Then paint all Democrats with Obama, Obama, Obama, while the pundits (you is one of them, no?) ignore this massive propaganda operation. You cannot discuss this election without citing this fact and its impacts. You all missed it in 2010, 2012 and again this year. As Edward Bernays, and Walter Lippman, contended, repetition, repetition, repetition – works. Bernays did the Liberty Bonds for Wilson in WW I, one of the largest for generations. Father of advertising.
Where is the Democratic message, and where is the Democratic Echo Chamber? Do you pundits who sometimes evince loyalty to the Democratic side of anything ever get on and stay on any friendly message – no I think not. Time to wake up.
Thomas it is simply about who votes. If any of the following scenarios had occurred with aggregate turnout Senator Hagan would have won (assuming these counties had the same turnout as Chatham County which was 58.81%): Scenario #1 Buncombe, Cumberland, Durham, Guilford, Orange and Wake; Scenario #2 Durham, Guilford, Mecklenburg or Scenario #3 Guilford, Orange, Mecklenburg and Wake. In any of the aforementioned scenarios Senator Hagan wins with all other counties remaining at the same level of voter participation.
Randy, that’s one of those principles that works in theory but no so well in practice. Organizing a county the size of Chatham is not comparable to organizing a county the size of Mecklenburg, Wake or even Buncombe. There’s little economy of scale and, usually, the larger the county the harder the politics. Democrats need to keep organizing but they need a message if they want to stay competitive.