The Republican Party is in full Trump panic. Ohio Governor John Kasich, despite little support for his own candidacy, is attacking The Donald with TV ads implying he’s fascist. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham has been after Trump for awhile and told an audience yesterday that Trump was costing Republicans the election with his nasty rhetoric. While Kasich and Graham may represent the sane wing of the GOP, they are certainly in a minority among the primary voters.
Graham and Kasich may be right that Trump will cost the party the election, but the Republican Party has nobody to blame but themselves. For years, they’ve courted and pandered to an angry and paranoid strain of the electorate that resists change and clings to an existence that they believe, usually correctly, is slipping away. Most of the time, this segment of the population makes up a small percentage that votes but it is not strong enough to exert serious influence.
In the wake of the Great Recession, though, their numbers have swelled. They lost their savings and their jobs and the ones they have now pay less and offer less security. To them, immigrants have taken their jobs and threatened their safety. By their reckoning, Trump’s bashing is telling it like it is, not inciting hate.
In social matters, they can’t make sense of the world. Men are marrying men and women are marrying women. Transgender people are demanding to be recognized by the gender with which they identify, not the one to which they were born. Fewer people are going to church but we hear more about mosques and synagogues. We cater to disabled people who just a decade or so ago would have remained in the shadows and now are working in broad daylight. In their minds, all of these people have emerged from nowhere, costing money, taking jobs, and encouraged by a society and government that’s become too permissive.
In the South, these politics are all too familiar. For most of the twentieth century, political power rested with keeping poor whites scared of Black equality. If we gave them equal status, the reasoning went, they would take our jobs, invade our churches and our schools, and destroy our quality of life, which in many cases wasn’t very high to begin with. In 1990, Jesse Helms won a race against Harvey Gantt with an ad that said, “You needed that job. Your were the most qualified, but it had to go to a minority.”
Trump is the right candidate at the right to time to exploit the fear and anger nationally that drove Southern politics regionally. Marriage equality, the Black Lives Matter movement, terrorist threats, an increasingly diverse population, and a changing economy combined with widespread economic insecurity have politicized angry working class whites. Aided by cable news and talk radio, they see their entire existence under attack.
The GOP has been exploiting their fears for decades, but they always made up too little of the base to wield real power. Now, their ranks have swelled and as the population as a whole gets more diverse and more tolerant, Trump has emerged as the hero who will say out loud what GOP leaders have been telling them for years behind closed doors. He’s poised to be their nominee or, possibly, the spoiler as an independent candidate.
In 2016, the GOP is finally reaping what it sowed.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
The Republicon elite will launch at least $10 million in air attacks against Trump, which will sink his polls in Iowa. Will Trump spend a significant amount of his $300 million he budgeted for the race (WSJ, 7/24/15) ?
That could hurt him in Iowa, leading to a possible Carson or Cruz win, because envangelicals are very strong there. But it could also madden and alienate a large and hardened base within the GOP, and could even lead Trump to renege on his “no 3rd Party run” pledge.
In all, I am loving the dysfunction and food-fight that now envelopes the GOP. They brought it all on themselves.
Be careful what you wish for, A.L. While I too believe a Trump nomination could be disastrous for the GOP, Hillary is not well liked and could lose to Trump under the right circumstances.
Freud is right that we seek the security of the provider father. Trump is that man for the voters. Not being sophisticated, which means nihilist and cynical, they will vote. The corporatist Hillary Clinton is preferred to the nationalist Bernie Sanders by the legacy power structure which could win, maybe, depending.
The mother figure or the father figure could end up as the primary contestants. The mother figure created a fantastic failure with the destruction of the status quo in Libya. As this fact becomes more in play moving forward the youth vote of the Democrats will be more lost, and only feminism, the feminist vote looking for their turn will turn out.
Sanders is not properly marketed as the New Deal Democrat, and while he speaks of a proper redress of the crimes of Wall Street with nothing more radical than a transaction tax, same as the regressive sales tax, richer Democrats don’t want to pay taxes anymore either.
Only the working classes and the poor are to pay taxes. Working people made poor can’t be made to pay much more.
All the MBAs are taught 1790s French economic theory that says subsistence wages are all that workers ought be paid because otherwise they will take time off to enjoy their lives.
This is a very successful theory in NC (Not Conscious) in particular, where exists 25 percent poverty.
Both Corporation China, and Corporation USA collude to make all workers wage slaves.
The beatniks were right in that they understood that the atom bomb changed everything. There is no government of governments so all nations that as nationalists, not corporatists, will end up arranging to get nukes according to the advice of John C. Mearsheimer, the 21st Century equivalent of Mahan.
Nationalist cover for Corporation China will conduct war by threat in Asia. Mercantilism is not dead as they seek to point to hordes of gold now as backing the currency realnumbme.
The Apocalyptic Riot is underway in the confused conflict of the Oil region. The Euro is eroding as Syrian draft dodgers flee to anywhere in Europe where there is a welfare state to give them security and they can alter the welcoming culture committing cultural suicide through high ideals.
The Petrodollar, invented by Nixon and Kissinger will collapse due to adoption of Meyer Lansky Financial Engineering adopted by the US, UK, and Russian Financial powers.
Chinese currency will do okay for awhile till the Corporatists and Nationalists internally go at it amongst themselves again, as further fractures in the US increase as it does within what it is doing.
The UN will continue to fail to become the government of government since no powerful nation will give up nukes and allow the UN to eliminate them.
Nationalists will continue to have the nuclear triggers under there fingers.
Confusion and crisis overload will overtake humanity and the apocalyptic riot will turn nuclear.
Nuclear winter will cool the planet.
The population will have few places left to live for the next 3 thousand years.
All might be accelerated by Putin who might decide to nuke the US the day Trump is elected, a bit different than what happened the day after Reagan was.
If you want Trump to implode get behind somebody who can speak to regular folks and not be afraid of not being PC, but not crazy.
I have always said either Cruz or Rubio could win it for the GOP.
Alas, Cruz is a mean-spirited as they come, and Rubio just isn’t very sincere or bright.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/02/opinion/anyone-but-ted-cruz.html
Trump is America’s 21st Century answer to Benito Mussolini, and is the direct result of 40 years of Republican gutter politics.
Make that 50. Barry Goldwater began the pandering to the backlash against civil rights. Nixon and Reagan perfected it, and now that Frankenstein monster is about to destroy its creator.
It’s time for all of us who never believed that Donald Trump would last this long or, indeed, increase his leading position in the national polls to concede that–he has done it. Dr. Ron Faucheux, in his polling update for Friday, December 4 reports that:
“…Trump is pulling away from the field in this new national poll among Republican voters; and
….55% of Republican voters believe Trump is best able to handle the economy;
….51% believe he’s best able to handle the federal budget;
….48% believe he’s best able to handle immigration;
….46% believe he’s best able to handle ISIS;
….30% believe he’s best able to handle foreign policy;
….52% think Trump is most likely of all the GOP contenders to win in November and
….42% think he’s best able to solve the country’s problems.”
Faucheux concludes: “Yes, I’d say it’s time to take Donald Trump seriously.” I agree.
Don’t you just love politics? Unpredictable, unbelievable and unique. What do you suppose his nomination might mean for North Carolina politics? Stand by.
If the Faucheux polling is correct (that roughly/generously about half of Republicans are with Trump), and if Americans registered as Republican or leaning that way constitute about 50% of the electorate (this percentage too is generously presumed, but is supportable given Gallup polling), it could mean that roughly (sadly) 25% of the voters nationally are square in Trump’s corner and would vote for him as of right now.
Those numbers would suggest that Trump could actually win the GOP nomination, but they also present a challenge to his winning the race for POTUS.
Can he solidly hold that 25% block of voters who currently may be with him–plus win over remaining/reluctant GOP’ers–if he continues to voice stupid and xenophobic notions, and proves during debates and press conferences that his insights always tend to be very bombastic, simplistic and superficial?
Also, from the 75% of all voters who may not be currently in his corner, can he capture say 30-35% of them?
He’ll need to get “yes” answers on both questions to reach a potentially winning 50% share of voters on election day 2016. And I’ll guess he doesn’t get those “yes” answers.
As for NC, I’m thinking a Trump vs. Hillary presidential run brings out immense numbers of NC voters, and Hillary wins in a very, very close call, for two reasons. First, because HRC will chew him up and spit him out in any debates. Secondly, because after 9 months of a presidential campaign, only those NC’ers who cannot think a lick or are misogynists would conclude that he’s more worthy to be POTUS. I like to think that voters here, in general, are just not that bigoted or dim-witted. But I could be proven wrong…..
Tonight’s Birther Bonnaroo in Raleigh should be enlightening.
Analysis is correct, but the outcomes may not only be harm to the GOP brand. This country is likely to suffer even further damage from not only the conduct of Trump (and others) in this campaign season, but should any of the nut cases become president, the results for women, gays, people of color, the poor, disabled, elderly, Muslims, and emigrants — just to name a few — would be awful. The US with the kind of leadership Trump (or Cruz) would bring is not one the rest of the world would applaud, support or respect. Some might laugh at the spectacle and move even further with plans to harm us. Does anyone think that Putin would not see that kind of leadership as an invitation to more meddling in Europe or the Middle East?
I think it speaks volumes when Lindsay Graham represents the ‘sane’ wing of the party.
I am thinking a terrific GOP 2016 ticket would be Trump-Cruz.
No, no. Cruz is too “sane” (relative term). We should be looking for a Trump-Palin ticket.
Or Trump-Bachmann.
Cruz is too sane??? What planet have you been living on???
If you think the GOP is scared of the situation they have created with Trump – who actually epitomizes the republikan base as a whole, then you are a political novice in the divide and conquer world of the powerful US. ruling elite. These neo-cons are always ten steps ahead of you because they make the rules as need dictates and at the moment they are happy as larks, for if one of their looneys isn’t installed in the Oval Office their favorite neo-con Hillary will be; you see Thomas, the democratic base is as easily mislead and manipulated as the ‘red-publikans’. Obviously, you have intentionally ignored the sage wisdom that Eddie Bernays pompously imparted for the whole world to see – knowing that they never see what is right under their noses. That is why 911 was so successful for the neo-cons who orchestrated it, achieving their vision of perpetual war with a contrived enemy.
OK, C.J. I have long disagreed with your posts, but tolerated them in the interest of hearing other viewpoints. But, even given my great distaste for neo-con thinking, your saying “That is why 911 was so successful for the neo-cons who orchestrated it” goes too far. I cannot believe that any sane-minded person would actually believe that neo-cons planned the 9/11 attacks. I’ll ignore your posts hereon…….
I think he was trying to say that all the things the extreme conservatives pushed through after and because of the 9/11 attacks were successful, not that they planned the attacks. That’s an exaggeration, to be sure, but not entirely untrue.
Eilene, I am not sure you are right, given some of C.J.’s other posts. Note that, as of yet, he hasn’t replied to me nor clarified his statement yet.
Readers of these threads have to assume that what posters write is what they mean. So I am not willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, nor to guess at he may have been trying to say.
Wow, there’s a active “truther” posting here. I thought the species was on the verge of extinction.
I know liberals are suckers for conspiracy theories, D.g., but c’mon, tell us you’re surely not a closet truther. PLEASE!
D.g., you’re confusing ” truther” with “birther.” A ” birther” claims Obama was not born in the U.S. A “truther” believes the destruction of the World Trade Centers on 9/11 was not caused by terrorists flying airliners into the buildings, but instead was an “inside” job by Americans carried out through a right wing conspiracy.
“Most of the time, this segment of the population makes up a small percentage that votes but it is not strong enough to exert serious influence…..The GOP has been exploiting their fears for decades, but they always made up too little of the base to wield real power. Now, their ranks have swelled.”
This ^^^^ is exactly what has happened, driven by the GOP itself. Fear-mongering, promoting divisiveness, and appealing only to the motivated reasoning of that segment (i.e., telling them what they want to hear and can mentally deal with, not what they need to hear) have become the major tools adopted by the GOP to win office, get re-elected, feather their own self-interests, and remain in their time warp of the past. .
“In 2016, the GOP is finally reaping what it sowed.”
And as they should. It’s about time.