Party switchin’

by | Jan 8, 2015 | 2016 Elections, Editor's Blog, NC Politics, NCGA | 13 comments

Rep. Paul Tine announced that he is switching his registration from Democrat to Independent and caucusing with Republicans. Rumor has it that he will switch to the Republican party when he runs for re-election. That would probably end his political career.

Tine has been a Democrat his whole life and voted with Democrats in the General Assembly. If he runs as a Republican, he’ll almost certainly attract a primary from his right. Conservative activists won’t take his voting record lightly and any votes he makes with Republicans over the next two years will get drowned out by the votes he made against them.

If Tine either doesn’t get a primary or manages to pull off a victory, he’ll certainly face a Democrat in November 2016. He just won as a Democrat in a Republican wave year. In a presidential year, the district almost certainly is more Democratic and, as a party switcher, he won’t attract much support from members of his former party.

His best shot is to stay an independent. It will be a lonely race, but not as lonely as it would have been a few years ago. He won’t have the structural advantages of an organized party but he may still get the support of independent groups that want to see a continued Republican majority. Instead of spending money on a primary, he’ll have to spend it getting enough signatures to get on the ballot.

In a general election, he can try to stake out a middle ground, arguing that he’s not beholden to either party. That might sound good to an electorate that is frustrated with the hyper partisanship in politics today. However, he’ll still need to raise the money to get that message out. He might be able to win with a plurality.

He could find himself caught in the middle, though, if both parties field viable candidates. It’s a swing district and Republicans would probably need to clear the field for Tine to run as independent. Otherwise, he’ll split the Republican vote, paving the way for a Democrat.

This is not the 1980s or 1990s. After Reagan won in 1980 and the GOP wave of 1994, Democratic elected officials across the South left the party. However, voters were switching, too. That’s not the case today. My guess is that Paul Tine is serving his final two years in the North Carolina General Assembly. I also bet that that it’s a lonely term.

13 Comments

  1. Randolph Voller

    Dallas, Democrats did pick up three seats on the supreme court and two on the appellate court.

    • Thuaidh Cearuilin

      Gee Randy, I thought judicial elections were non-partisan?

  2. Old Salt

    A Coastal Representative that took donations from big oil last year. I was wondering how long it would be until he would have to return the favor. Now just another big oil tool!

  3. Adam Love

    Some backstory; Tine’s switch has been a couple of years in the making, part of an effort by the NCGOP and House GOP Caucus to block the rise of Tea Party influence in the Outer Banks. They cut loose their 2012 nominee, Tea Party leader Mattie Lawson, and left her out to dry. Thus, going into 2014, Tine had a big fundraising advantage thanks to incumbency, and the NCGOP had a compliant party-switcher in the seat instead of a conservative rebel they couldn’t control.

    http://dailyhaymaker.com/?p=10192

    • Gregorius Caroline du Nord

      I’m glad you posted that Adam, looks like more anti-Tea Party shenanigans by our “country club” Republicans. Tine is about as conservative as Nancy Pelosi, he’ll fit right in.

  4. Goptarheel

    This is a district won handily by Burr/Tillis/Romney/McCain/McCrory, so voters here are certainly willing to support Republicans. This is also an area home to Basnight’s brand of ‘Jessecrats’ that would probably follow Tine into the GOP fold-they certainly have for Walter Jones, a fellow party switcher who regularly exceeds the rest of the GOP ticket’s vote in eastern NC.

    The most worrying sign for Tine here is former Rep. Arthur Williams, who lost to a Tea Party type in his comeback attempt after switching to the Republicans. But Tine might have a better shot than Williams-he doesn’t have the stench of the old Democratic GA since he’s only been in office since 2013. He could also attract funds from outside groups like the Chamber in a potential primary.

    Really though, this should worry Democrats much more than you let on. Tine was the type of Democrat who allowed his party to control the GA even as the state became increasingly Republican. If business-friendly candidates (and the campaign cash they attract) are only at home with the GOP, there is no hope for the state Democrats to win either house by 2020. Already, there are NO State Senate Democrats in seats Romney won, and State House Democrats are still vulnerable to losing their few rural conservative seats. Brisson and Waddell come to mind as House Dems that could switch or lose by the end of the decade, and Democrats will struggle to hold onto Joe Sam Queen and Bard Salmon’s districts as well.

  5. Dallas Woodhouse

    This means the Democrats spent millions through Independent efforts and party efforts, along with the massive Moral Monday efforts and ended up with a net pick up of
    1 seat in the General Assembly.

    They beat 4 republican members in the House, but lost an open seat for a net of three.

    Paul’s switch makes net 2

    They lost one seat in the NC Senate.

    That is a ton of money to go plus 1

    • Steve Harrison

      You think that’s funny, what about all the money Republican Legislators spent keeping a majority that was already guaranteed thanks to gerrymandering? Like Phil Berger (Sr) running television ads. 😉

      But I have to give you points, Dallas. Your donors (whoever they are) got their US Senate majority, and I’m sure you came out smelling like a rose. Congrats, and don’t blow all that money on fancy suits. The resale value is horrible.

  6. wncguy

    I think you are spot on. Since he didn’t change his registration to republican, I suspect they will be leery and that someone will primary him to his right and will the 2016 state and legislative primary not having the benefit of the presidential primary to help moderate turnout, i think he would lose in the primary if he ran as a republican and that a democrat would win if he tries as an independent.

  7. Randolph Voller

    Today is my birthday and Rep. Tine’s gift was not on my wish list. Your analysis is interesting as well.

    • Adam

      I think you’ve already given NC Dems the best birthday gift of all by not running for Chair again.

      • Barbara Dantonio

        That is really rude and uncalled for. You need to apologize to Randy Voller. You have no idea what he had to put up with. He did his best and I doubt you could have done any better if you had taken the job. And Happy Birthday Randy.

        • TY Thompson

          Come now, Democrats don’t apologize. Alinsky rules! 😉

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