PPP released their first 2015 poll of NC yesterday. They asked about the governor’s race and also the Senate race. Both McCrory and Burr post mediocre approval ratings but PPP notes that if 2016 turns out to be a Republican year or even a neutral year, both will probably be favored. Let’s take a brief look at the results of the survey.

Obama Approval
42% Approve (+2)
53% Disapprove (no change)

The numbers are parentheses are the changes since December 2014. As you can see, Obama enjoyed a modest, but statistically insignificant, uptick in his approval rating. The President is still unpopular in North Carolina and I don’t expect his numbers to become much stronger for the rest of his term. His numbers are particularly relevant for the Senate race. If he remains this unpopular, it’s hard to see a Democrat defeating Richard Burr.

McCrory Approval
41% Approve (no change)
45% Disapprove (-1)

Again, almost no change since December. McCrory’s approval rating points to a pure toss-up race for governor in 2016. The good news for McCrory is that his ratings are much better than several GOP governors who got reelected last November. Neither the McCrory folks nor the Cooper people should get too cocky.

Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates’ Favorability
Roy Cooper 29/28 (+1) +1
Ken Spaulding 7/21 (-14) N/A

The first set of numbers are the favorable/unfavorable numbers for each candidate. The number in parentheses is the spread, for readers who don’t know math. The last number is the change in the spread since two months ago, when PPP last polled on this race.

Again, Cooper posts favorability ratings that are much lower than what he enjoyed through most of his tenure as Attorney General. I suppose that’s mostly due to him being seen as more political since he indicated interest in a run for Governor.

Gubernatorial Race
44% McCrory (-2)
39% Cooper (no change)

44% McCrory
34% Spaulding

McCrory leads Cooper by 5. He led him by 7 back in December. No real change. The good news for Cooper is that his name recognition is still not that high. McCrory’s standing in the gubernatorial race is also higher than his approval rating, because disenchanted conservatives opt for McCrory when forced to choose between two candidates. At this point, I’d consider the governor to be a very slight favorite for reelection. The bad news is that he can’t break 44%, even against Spaulding, who is unknown.

Now for the Senate race.

Burr Approval
34% Approve (+3)
35% Disapprove (-1)

Burr is still unknown and his approval rating is nothing stellar. Still, this is where he was around this time at the start of the 2009/2010 cycle, and it looks like once again he’ll be able to raise a ton of money. Barring an unusually strong opponent, he should be favored even in a neutral year. But don’t expect a Burr landslide. Remember, U.S. Senate races in North Carolina are consistently close.

Favorability, Democratic Candidates for U.S. Senate
Janet Cowell 14/16 (-2)
Mike McIntyre 15/17 (-2)
Tom Ross 11/15 (-4)
Anthony Foxx 14/24 (-10)
Kay Hagan 38/54 (-16)

None of the Democratic candidates polled here have positive favorable ratings, but that’s not much of a concern as PPP has this thing where unknown candidates tend to get an automatically negative reception from respondents. What is a concern is that the two candidates Democrats are pining for the most are also the most underwater, favorability-wise.

Hagan’s -16 favorable spread is just brutal. If this poll is accurate, Democrats should be begging her to stay out of the race, not get in. I just don’t understand the rationale for a second Kay Hagan candidacy. I think most of it is coming out of Washington, and they want one of their own back in the Senate. And I think it’s based on the erroneous view that Hagan’s loss was some kind of fluke. It wasn’t. The fluke was that she almost won despite the wave, due almost entirely to her opponent coming out of the unpopular state legislature. I suppose I could understand the case for a Hagan bid if Burr somehow ends up retiring and Republicans put up Phil Berger.

Then there’s Anthony Foxx, another one who makes Democrats go gaga, but who NC voters are not nearly as enamored with. With a -10 favorable spread, Foxx would start off underwater. Why? It turns out, folks in the Charlotte suburbs were not fans of Mayor Foxx. If Foxx runs, that resentment will carry over to the Senate race. For a Democrat running statewide, it’s not a good idea to have a whole bunch of moderate suburbanites unhappy with you from the get-go.

Of these five, I think Janet Cowell would make the best candidate. She’s a woman, elected to statewide office in the past, decent record as Treasurer. But I don’t think she’ll run. I don’t see Tom Ross as running either. I have no idea what Mike McIntyre’s plans are but I can’t imagine the liberal Democratic base being too happy with the prospect of him as their Senate candidate.

Senate Race, Head to Head
48% Burr, 42% Hagan (+3)
44% Burr, 37% McIntyre
45% Burr, 38% Cowell (+1)
44% Burr, 35% Ross
47% Burr, 36% Foxx (+5)

Burr appears to be in a better position than he was in December. His margin against Hagan is 6, in December it was 3 (+3). His margin against Cowell is 7, versus 6 in December (+1). And in December he led Foxx by 6, now he leads by 11.

While Hagan does the best against Burr, that 38/54 favorable rating is really going to make it difficult for her to get to 50%. Hagan would have access to money but I think in the end Democrats would be better off with a fresh face. As for Foxx, he already promised Burr he wouldn’t run against him, but in the event he did run he would have to hope voters react to him better than voters in his home region of Charlotte. In the 704 area code, which covers Charlotte, Burr leads Foxx by 21. It is, in fact, the area code where Burr performs best.

Bottom line – I’d say at this point Burr is a favorite for reelection, but not a lock by any means. McCrory is a very slight favorite. While 2016 will see a larger voter turnout, the environment and the advantage of incumbency are factors in favor of both officeholders.