The political environment is tough for Republicans in North Carolina right now. At the national level, Donald Trump is scaring the world with reckless tweets about nuclear war with North Korea and the Republican Congress can’t seem to pass any significant legislation. Now, a poll shows that Republicans in the General Assembly are unpopular and the public is not happy with at least some of their actions.
Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling says that only 18% of North Carolinians have a favorable view of the legislature. Fifty-five percent say they have a negative view of the Republican majority while only 32% view them favorably. On the generic legislative ballot, voters prefer a Democrat by six points.
Of elected officials, only Democratic Governor Roy Cooper has a favorable image. Respondents give him a 15-point positive rating, 48% to 33%. The top elected Republicans, US Sens. Thom Tillis and Richard Burr, are both upside down. Voters like Burr a little more. His approval rating is 34 positive, 42% negative. Tillis is only 28% positive with 45% holding an unfavorable opinion of him. And fully half of the people have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump while only 44% view him favorably.
Republicans in the legislature have also offered Democrats ammunition for 2018. Sixty-percent of the respondents disapprove of cutting the Attorney General’s budget by $10 million and almost as many, 59%, say the cuts will make us less safe. Significantly, a plurality, 46% believe the cuts were made for political reasons. That’s a powerful message: Republicans made our families less safe purely to score political points. It’s easily digestible, believable and substantiated.
Republicans start the 2018 election cycle in tough shape. Donald Trump is losing popularity. The Republican legislature is highly unpopular. Republicans are willing to put their political interests ahead of the safety of families. And Roy Cooper, the face of the North Carolina Democratic Party, came out of his first legislative session with 15% positive approval rating.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Ah, polls. I still remember nearly all of them pointing to a Hillary landslide and how HB2 was going to decimate the GA Rep caucuses in 2016. But hope springs eternally.
As unpopular as the Republicans in our legislature may be, the key to real change remains a matter of maps. The success of gerrymandering has created a profound shift in this state toward policies which have been widely unpopular in defiance of the will of the governed. The tyranny of the minority has been possible because of the resilience of unconstitutional districts.
The expected result of unpopular policies, if democracy worked as it should, would be changes in representation demanded by a disaffected electorate. However, when the representatives are able to choose who gets to vote for or against them, as they have in North Carolina, the voice of the people is silenced and their will is frustrated.
The Republicans in the legislature have shown no willingness to obey the Constitution even when the nation’s highest court has smacked them around.
The over-representation of Republicans in our legislature and our Congress is a direct result of drawing district boundaries to maximize Republican representation and to minimize Democratic representation. In a state where there are more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, there is no reasonable explanation for a GOP super-majority in the General Assembly and 10 of 13 seats in the House of Representatives other than illegal and unconstitutional redistricting schemes. The policy of “one man, one vote” is violated by the practice of denying full representation to all voters equally.
While it is possible to overcome the disadvantage of gerrymandering with a massive turn-out, that has been thwarted with racist laws denying minority voters a chance to be heard. In any event, it should not require a landslide to overcome the minority simply because they had dug a moat around their political advantage.
If the Republicans continue to poll badly, the 2018 contest may be an indication: Can a minority silence the majority by gaming the system?
So far, the answer to your last question is “yes” and in many states. Gerrymandering and voter suppression are a deadly mixture for democracy. Longer term, we may find out if the veneer of representative government can safely exist if the economy has enough growth to meet the expectations of most people.
I have long believed that China was the current best example of that question, but this country seems headed down that path also. There was a time when I was certain that a nation with a long history of a significant amount of personal freedom and expression for most (not all by any means) could not be pushed onto that path. Like the climate, I think we are at a decisive moment.
I want to add a quick comment about the Republican Congress being unable to pass legislation. Overall, this is a blessing. Because if they were able to enact legislation, it would most likely be so extreme that the country would suffer more than it is without the measures. Mr. Trump would sign anything put before him. A stalemate is preferable to a flurry of bills further ruining our country. The hope is that more moderate lawmakers will be elected next year. And I still believe the Trump presidency will end in its first term. But then, I acknowledge I never believed he would be elected. It was the electoral mistake of my lifetime and probably of the entire length of American history.