The latest survey from High Point University was released yesterday. In their last poll of the Senate race, the university found Hagan and Tillis tied at 44%, which was more accurate than a lot of other public polling firms, so I’d put stock in whatever they have to say.
Overall, North Carolinians give their elected officials mixed reviews. Coming in as the most popular is Pat McCrory, who sports a +10 job approval rating. The state is evenly split on the performance of our senior senator, Richard Burr, but he has a narrowly positive score on that front. Finally, the state disapproves of President Obama and Kay Hagan especially.
This poll was of “adults”; these adults were asked if they were registered to vote. Usually a tighter screen results in a more Republican sample, and therefore results in a more “conservative” response, but interestingly that’s not always the case in these results. The numbers below are of registered voters.
Obama Approval
43% Approve
52% Disapprove
If accurate, this would make the President more popular in North Carolina than he is nationwide. That is possible because Democrats have a higher ceiling here (and in some other Southern states, like Georgia) than elsewhere. Most of the latest NC polls we’ve seen have Obama at -15 or so. We’ll have to keep an eye on other polls to see if there’s been any real uptick in Obama’s approval here.
McCrory Approval
49% Approve
38% Disapprove
Don’t look now, but according to HPU, Pat McCrory is by far the most popular major political figure in North Carolina. That’s a +11 approval rating. Now, the question is, does HPU have it right? PPP had McCrory with a -2 approval in their poll which was released just two weeks ago. Let’s add High Point to the list of pollsters who have looked at McCrory’s approval rating lately:
High Point: 49% Approve, 38% Disapprove (+11)
Rasmussen: 51% Approve, 45% Disapprove (+6)
PPP: 40% Approve, 42% Disapprove (-2)
Elon: 37% Approve, 47% Disapprove (-10)
One poll with +11, another one with -10 within a one month period. That’s a 21-point disagreement. High Point and Elon are both colleges and not far from each other, but one of them is significantly off the mark. By the way, average the numbers above and that comes out to 44% Approve, 43% Disapprove, and 13% with no opinion. But that average doesn’t mean anything if one of those polls is significantly off.
In other words, we have no freakin’ clue where NC stands when it comes to Pat McCrory. He’s either popular, with perhaps a majority approving of his job performance, or highly unpopular and one of the most vulnerable governors in the nation. Take your pick.
Burr Approval
32% Approve
27% Disapprove
On the other hand we have Richard Burr, and the polls tend to agree on how North Carolinians feel about him: they don’t. Burr is very much anonymous, but of those who do know him, more like him than don’t like him. In PPP’s last poll, they found almost identical numbers, with 33% approving, 27% disapproving, and 39% not being sure about him.
Now, a 32% approval rating sounds pretty terrible. But Burr had similar numbers, or worse, six years ago when he was preparing to run in 2010. That year was a Republican wave and the election was less about him than it was about Obama. Right now, Burr is in positive territory with voters. Usually, vulnerable senators tend to have negative job approval ratings. Of course, with Burr being so undefined in the eyes of voters, that makes the national environment especially important to his bid. If Republicans do something crazy like try to impeach Obama, Burr’s numbers might take a dive.
Hagan Approval
39% Approve
48% Disapprove
Those who think Kay Hagan would be the perfect Democrat to take on Burr might want to take a look at Hagan’s numbers here and Burr’s numbers above. She may have run a good campaign, but she’s not a popular figure. A lot of people seem to be forgetting already that 2014 Senate was for voters a choice between the lesser of two evils. In the end, Hagan’s connection with Obama proved to be more concerning to voters than Tillis’s ties to the state legislature.
Hagan’s numbers are even worse when it comes to “all adults” – 36% approve, 48% disapprove. Either way you look at it she’s unpopular and in 2016 she’d be deprived of her most potent weapon: being able to turn the race as a referendum on the General Assembly. If she does run, she’ll probably need some image repair. That, or an uptick in Obama’s popularity.
To sum it all up: Obama and Hagan are unpopular, Burr is more popular than unpopular but is unknown most of all, is probably the slight favorite unless the environment is favorable to Democrats, and nobody knows where McCrory stands – he is probably vulnerable, the question is to what extent. We are still quite some time away from 2016 so the events that will define those races are probably still on the horizon.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
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