As soon as the dust settled on 2014, there was a flurry of speculation that Democrats would recruit Kay Hagan to run against Richard Burr in 2016. The thinking was: hey, in a GOP wave year, Hagan came within 2 points of retaining her seat. So, obviously, her loss was a fluke, and with a presidential electorate, she’d stand a very good chance of knocking off Burr.

This blog challenged this analysis, stating that this line of thinking ignored some of the subtleties of North Carolina politics, in particular that Thom Tillis was considerably weakened as a candidate due to the unpopularity of the General Assembly and that due to her poor favorable ratings, Democrats might be better off with someone else. It’s taken some time, but since then most people have come around to this line of thinking, convinced in part by a series of PPP polls showing Hagan’s image has failed to recover from the brutal 2014 contest and her trailing Sen. Burr in head-to-heads. The latest one shows Burr leading by double-digits, 50-38.

These polls have generated serious concerns about Hagan’s viability as a candidate, to the extent that the DSCC no longer looks as enthusiastic about running her as they used to. Jennifer Duffy, analyst with the Cook Political Report, when asked if Democrats had any viable candidates other than Hagan, responded that she wasn’t sure if Hagan was that viable. Ouch. Ouch.

So far, though, we’ve only had PPP to go on. Not a knock against them, but one should never rely on what just one pollster says. Today, we heard from the folks at the Elon Poll, and while their results tended to mirror PPP’s exactly, there was one major exception: the 2016 Senate race. Far from being down double-digits, the poll finds Hagan within a point of Sen. Burr, 44-43. In fact, a poll of adults (not registered voters) finds Hagan in the lead.

What does this mean? If you’re Kay Hagan, the dueling numbers could be the difference between definitely sitting out the race, or giving it serious consideration. Personally, I’m inclined to believe that both pollsters are off. Hagan isn’t down double-digits, but her personal brand still hasn’t improved enough to the point where she’s tying Sen. Burr. To be sure, the DSCC is doing polling of their own and their own read of the race will determine how much pressure they’ll put on Hagan to run.

The rest of the Elon poll jibes with what PPP finds. Hillary Clinton leads Jeb Bush 47-44; PPP also found Jeb Bush trailing (but not Scott Walker, whose ratings with respondents in the Elon poll is highest of any candidate). Pat McCrory leads Roy Cooper 45-43; the governor’s approval rating is at 38/43.

The oddest part of the poll? Respondents were asked whether the Civil War was more about slavery or states’ rights. 42% said slavery and 43% said states’ rights. Democrats, blacks, older voters and women were more likely to say the war was fought over slavery; while Republicans, independents, whites, younger voters and men were more likely to say it was fought over states’ rights.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.