This post continues the analysis from yesterday of PPP’s latest poll. This time, we’re going to be concentrating on the U.S. Senate race. Richard Burr is the Republican incumbent and plans to seek reelection. He has yet to draw a Democratic opponent.
Burr Approval
31% Approve (-2)
36% Disapprove (+8)
Last month PPP polled NC and Burr had a 33/28 approval rating (+5) so I’m not sure what happened here. The switch to registered voters doesn’t seem nearly enough to explain the significant increase in his disapproval rating. What seems certain is that Burr’s approval rating is somewhere in the 30s and he’s pretty much a blank slate to voters, as he’s been for most of his tenure in the Senate.
Numbers like these pretty much indicate he’s at the mercy of the national environment, though with Burr we know he’s run good campaigns in the past and is a fairly likable figure. That, combined with the Republican lean of the state, means he should be favored in even a neutral environment, but a surprisingly tough opponent could complicate things.
Hagan Approval
39% Approve (-2)
52% Disapprove (+3)
These numbers here are why I think Hagan 2016 is a non-starter. Sure, she’d be a credible candidate, but that’s about all she’d be. The only reason Hagan made it close was because Tillis had similarly low favorable ratings. Against Burr, Hagan would be deprived of really her only weapon: the perceived overreach of the General Assembly. Maybe I’m totally off here but I don’t think I am. The “Hagan only lost because of the Republican wave, therefore she’d be a good candidate in 2016” might have some merit if she was pretty much break-even in her approval rating. But right now she’s -13. Do Democrats really want to field a candidate that starts off with the majority of voters having an unfavorable opinion of her right off the bat?
2016 Senate
46% Burr, 43% Hagan
44% Burr, 38% Cowell
44% Burr, 38% Foxx
Burr leads Hagan by 3. Voters don’t really know Burr, but after this campaign they know Hagan pretty well, and with a 2016 electorate she starts out with 43% (Hagan received 47% a month ago). In the other two matchups, Burr receives a slight boost for being an incumbent and also leads because of the state’s lean, the national mood, and the fact that Cowell and Foxx are unknown.
Cowell has a 16/17 rating. Foxx gets 17/25 due to the fact that a lot of people in the Charlotte suburbs know him and don’t like him. His connection to the Obama administration could be a major albatross. Right now Cowell looks like the stronger candidate but she has some problems with the left wing of the Democratic Party. She also has to run for reelection in 2016 and would have to give up her job if she wants to challenge Burr. I think if the national environment remains pro-Republican, a lot of top-tier Democrats are going to back off.
Tillis Favorability
37% Favorable (+1)
48% Unfavorable (no change)
Early on I said that voters were pretty much ready to throw out Hagan and the only way she could win was by absolutely tearing Tillis apart. In the end, Hagan did a good job eviscerating Tillis but the national environment eviscerated her even more. I think it’s pointless to talk about 2020 but the state does have a tendency to throw out incumbents and is consistently the most competitive state in the nation. At the same time, Tillis is going to get a chance to reintroduce himself to voters during his Senate tenure, on his terms. If Tillis loses in 2020 it will be on the basis of what voters think about his performance in the Senate rather than anything he did in the state legislature.
The bottom line: North Carolinians really don’t like any of their politicians at the moment. The one they come closest to liking is Roy Cooper, who at 25/25 is break-even in favorability, down substantially from even three months ago. The most disliked of all is President Obama and that’s currently driving the political environment at both the state and the national levels. Democrats should hope his popularity improves as even a slight improvement could go a long way in perhaps avoiding another anti-Democratic year.
Additionally, political prognosticator Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia unveiled his Senate ratings for the 2016 cycle. He pegs NC as ‘Leans Republican’. Sounds about right.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Look at those eyes! Burr hates our president with such passion that transcends politics. He is a palpably racist white male.
The figures seem low for every prospect. But congress is not the most popular organization in Washington these days. Government shut downs, failure to produce much in the way of legislation, long vacations. We pay these folks 170 grand plus a year to do nothing. Now republicans are trying to pass a budget that would allow banks to insure derivatives with tax payer funds, taking the cap off campaign contributions. We might as well hand the government over to the major corporations. I got an email today requesting I call my congressmen to urge him to vote against these measures. I suspect that would give his staff a real laugh.
The government HAS been handed over to big banks and corporations. The flood has just begun. The past election is an example of why. When people do not vote they should expect the worse and that is exactly what is going to happen.
46/43. All this poll does is verify what has been pretty obvious for some time. NC is a very polarized state and both of the major parties could nominate a head of cabbage and get 45% of the vote right at the start.
And that’s what we have here. A known, not very well liked Democrat gets about 45% and a not very well known Republicans gets about 45%. All people are responding to is the big D and big R after the names.
Whether or not a Hagan attempt at a comeback in 2016 is the best course of action for Democrats remains to be seen, but I suspect that the -13 point spread in her numbers right now reflect more of a pile on the loser syndrome. I know her approval ratings have seldom, if ever, been great but I don’t think they have ever been quite this bad. The same poll currently gives Tillis a -11 point spread indicating North Carolinians aren’t terribly interested in giving the winner a honeymoon either. The 2 point difference is certainly in the margin of error.
Two years is a long time in politics.