The latest poll from PPP looks at the numbers for Sen. Richard Burr and Gov. Pat McCrory, both Republicans and both up for reelection in 2016. Their situations at this point looks markedly different. While Burr leads all of his potential challengers in this poll by double-digits, McCrory’s lead is much more tenuous and his approval rating makes it look like he’s on shaky ground.
Let’s go through the poll and compare it with what PPP found last month.
Obama Approval
42% Approve (no change)
53% Disapprove (+2)
McCrory Approval
36% Approve (-4)
45% Disapprove (+1)
Last month, McCrory had a -4 net approval rating. This month, he’s at -9, his worst numbers in about a year. We’ll need other polls to confirm if there’s been a dip in his ratings. For what it’s worth, the polls are all over the place regarding Gov. McCrory’s standing and always have been. PPP generally shows his numbers the worst, Elon somewhere in the middle, and High Point tends to give him good ratings.
Cooper Favorability
27% Favorable (-7)
23% Unfavorable (+2)
Cooper’s numbers have returned to earth, so the last poll was probably a blip. If McCrory wants to get reelected with his current numbers, he’s going to have to raise Cooper’s negatives considerably.
Gubernatorial Race
44% McCrory (+1)
41% Cooper (no change)
Despite a drop in his approval, McCrory actually gains a point in the head-to-head. But the numbers aren’t good for him and are mostly a function of Cooper only being known to 50% of voters. Once Cooper becomes better-known, this race will become a true toss-up, perhaps leaning toward the Attorney General, at least if McCrory fails to improve in the eyes of NC voters.
Burr Approval
36% Approve (+4)
37% Disapprove (no change)
Richard Burr is, once again, an unknown quantity, though his approval rating is a bit better than last month. If 2016 is a strong Democratic year, Burr will be in trouble. But Democrats have to find a good candidate first.
Favorability, Democratic Candidates for U.S. Senate
Martin 10/12 (-2)
Miller 15/17 (-2)
Blue 14/17 (-3)
Cowell 12/16 (-4)
Jackson 6/13 (-7)
Hagan 37/53 (-16)
PPP has this thing where they find voters assigning negative ratings by default to people they don’t know about, and all the Democrats are pretty much unknown. There’s just one exception: Kay Hagan, but her name recognition isn’t a good thing. Her favorable rating is the lowest by far of any of the candidates. Other than Hagan, the best known is former U.S. Congressman Brad Miller, but he’s said he has no desire to run. After him is State Sen. Dan Blue, who surprisingly is better known to voters than State Treasurer Janet Cowell. Rep. Grier Martin and Miller are the best-liked of the candidates, but they’re still underwater favorability-wise.
Senate Race, Head-to-Head
47% Burr
36% Blue
46% Burr (+2)
35% Cowell (-3)
45% Burr
34% Miller
50% Burr (no change)
38% Hagan (-5)
46% Burr
32% Martin
46% Burr
30% Jackson
None of the Democratic candidates against Burr look particularly impressive, but that’s because all of them suffer from low name recognition. This continues to look like a contest that will be on the fringe of competitiveness: if Democrats have a good year, Burr will be a target. But in a Republican-leaning to neutral year, Burr will be favored. Hillary Clinton is probably going to have to carry NC for Democrats to knock off our senior senator.
Lieutenant Governor Race
40% Forest
36% Coleman
Forest should be favored if he faces Coleman next year. Against anyone else, the race is a toss-up and will depend largely on what happens at the presidential level. Forest will probably underperform the GOP candidate for President so he’s going to have to work for reelection. Also, if McCrory is a one-termer, it’s hard to see Forest surviving, though it’s possible that he could win by facing a lackluster opponent.
Tillis Approval
30% Approve (+1)
40% Disapprove (no change)
Democrats probably wish Tillis was up for reelection in 2016. Otherwise, with presidential turnout, they would have a great chance at knocking him off. Unfortunately for them, they won’t be able to do so for another five and a half years.
The bottom line: this is a great poll for Burr, probably the best he’s ever fared in a survey from PPP. He’s not safe but he’s looking like a lesser target. On the other hand, McCrory might be the most vulnerable governor who goes before the voters in 2016 (there aren’t many). His numbers are weak and Roy Cooper will be a formidable challenger. The governor should hope his numbers follow the path of other GOP governors like John Kasich, Rick Scott, Rick Snyder, and Scott Walker – all of whom looked very vulnerable at the start of their campaigns but were able to turn it around. There’s still more than enough time for McCrory to do so as well!
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
I’d love to have a Democratic governor even if it’s just b/c there would then be a Democratic majority on all board of elections, which would stop the assault on college campus voting sites…
Kind of a lose-lose for everyone. Dems could use a strong candidate like Cooper to get Burr but he’ll knock off a Democrat in all but name like McCrory, and end up nearly as marginalized by the State Ledge as McCrory is. Meanwhile, Burr coasts to reelection even though a lot of his own Party don’t like him. Now if Dems could figure out a way to tie Tillis to Burr, maybe they’d have a chance.
“a Democrat in all but name like McCrory”
I’m wondering just how far out to the edge of the galaxy you have to travel to have a perspective where McCrory is indistinguishable from a Democrat. His history as mayor of Charlotte would indicate he is not of the lunatic fringe that is currently ascendant in the Republican Party. But as governor he certainly did nothing to impede the lurch to the far right. In fact, he was quite cooperative in it. It’s hard to imagine a Democratic governor who would have behaved as McCrory has while governor.
Sure McCrory is saying stuff that makes himself appear more moderate in preparation for facing a general electorate next year. A general electorate that isn’t exactly thrilled with the recent goings on in Raleigh. But that is just marketing. Or as Elwood Blues would have said, “It wasn’t lies. It was just bullsh*t.”.
McCrory has a real problem next year. There are those of us who realize that taking back either house of the legislature is likely a multi-cycle effort. We understand that the quickest way to mitigate some of the damage being done in Raleigh is to elect a Democratic governor. But it isn’t just people who are tuned in and who are chomping at the bit to vote for Cooper. Regular folks here in Mecklenburg County who voted for McCrory thinking they were getting good old Mayor Pat are also appalled.
I met a woman the other day whose difficult individual situation had been made tougher by our Republican friends’ policy changes. She specifically mentioned McCrory. For her he is the face of it. I simply told her to be sure to vote next year and to drag all the neighbors and friends she could to the polls with her. Several folks nearby joined in the conversation and none had a kind word for Mayor Pat.
McCrory carried Mecklenburg last time. By about 3,000 votes. It’s a very safe bet he won’t carry it next year. I’ve talked to far too many people who admit to voting for him last time who are adamant that they won’t repeat what they now feel was a mistake.
I know anecdotal evidence is not a substitute for hard data. But I have often trusted what I see with my own eyes as confirmation of what the data is telling us. This has served me well when betting that most valuable of commodities, beer, on the outcome of elections. When we begin to have more data on which to base our wagers I suspect it will coincide with the anecdotal evidence I am reporting.
McCrory is in trouble. And he damn sure isn’t going to carry Mecklenburg this time around.
I’ll be the one to keep this short with just this response…..”Veto-proof majority”. You don’t know what McCrory is or isn’t because he has as much power in North Carolina as Elizabeth II does in Great Britain. And Governor Cooper will deliver more vetoes than McCrory but barring a significant shift in the State house party breakdown, he’ll be nearly as irrelevant as McCrory, and he’ll look even more impotent than McCrory. It is what it is, when you take off the partisan glasses.
”Veto-proof majority”
You are correct if that veto proof majority is maintained.
Only a handful of seats need to flip in order for that veto proof majority to disappear. With presidential year turnout and assuming a Democratic win in the gubernatorial race, it is not a stretch to see those seats flip.
Here in Mecklenburg County alone we had two House races in which the Democratic candidates each received 45% of the vote in 2014. An off year election that was very good for Republicans. A third seat that might have been competitive went uncontested. There are two or three of your handful that might upset the current veto proof majority.
I am not on drugs, nor am I delusional. I don’t expect either House to flip. But can those majorities be shaved sufficiently that a Democratic governor could mitigate the damage done and put the brakes on further damage being done? That is extremely possible.
The fact that the Republicans increased the taxes of so many North Carolinians certainly makes it more likely. The kind of gift you don’t get often. Shame on the Democrats if they don’t take full advantage of that gift.
Democrats could do a lot to learn from Richard Reich and post to FB everyday their reports and positions. The Democratic Party Youtube Channel is little used. Orange County Democrats have in committee approved a resolution that the Democrats make better use overall of Social Media.