PPP is out with a new poll looking at the reelection prospects for both Burr and McCrory. The results are fairly unsurprising, though notably McCrory looks to be in better shape than Burr, which defies the conventional wisdom. At this point, both McCrory and Burr have leads, but both are underwater approval-wise and could be vulnerable.
Obama Approval
40% Approve (+1)
53% Disapprove (-2)
PPP is switching over to registered voters for this poll, so keep that in mind when assessing any changes in the numbers. Obama’s approval here is about what one would expect: he has a high floor here but a low ceiling, and even lower now as there appears to be quite a few voters who are just done with Obama and won’t approve of his job performance ever again. Obama’s approval rating is probably the biggest factor going into 2016. If it dips below 40%, Democrats are going to have a really hard time knocking off Burr.
McCrory Approval
41% Approve (+1)
46% Disapprove (+2)
I’ve noted before how McCrory’s approval spread ranges from -10 to +10 depending on which pollster you believe. PPP has the governor at 41/46, which indicates at this point he has about a 50% shot at winning reelection. Tom Jensen notes that McCrory’s party is not completely satisfied with his performance; perhaps they see him as not sufficiently conservative. With 20% of Republicans disapproving of him, it’s clear he’s stepped on some toes.
Berger Favorability
11% Approve (+1)
28% Disapprove (-5)
The last time PPP polled on Berger’s favorability appears to have been back in September 2013, when the legislature was at its lowest approval ever. I highly doubt Berger runs for Senate because Burr is probably running again. Nor do I think these numbers mean much of anything. Most North Carolinians don’t know who the Senate leader is and won’t vote based on their opinion of him.
Cooper Favorability
26% Favorable (-7)
26% Unfavorable (+7)
The last time PPP polled on the Attorney General was back in September. Since then, there’s been a clear drop in his favorable ratings. I’m not sure why. But if I had to guess, his refusal to defend the state’s gay marriage ban, and recently his refusal to join the immigration lawsuit. The realization that Cooper is only break-even in his favorable rating should give Democrats pause. I highly doubt the Attorney General will be able to successfully unite conservative Democrats behind his candidacy.
Cowell Favorability
16% Favorable (+2)
17% Unfavorable (+8)
Cow-ell … cow-ell. Nope, doesn’t ring a bell.
Foxx Favorability
17% Favorable (+2)
25% Unfavorable (+11)
Another Democratic official whose unfavorable numbers have climbed. Why is Foxx relatively disliked? It has to do with his reception in his home region of Charlotte. In the 704 area code, Cooper is +5. Foxx is -15. The current Transportation Secretary might be popular in metro Charlotte, but that’s not the case in the city’s suburbs. Also, PPP polled Foxx against Phil Berger in a hypothetical Senate race between the two. Berger led by 3. Foxx has been identified as another Democratic dream candidate, but right now he doesn’t look especially strong.
Governor
46% McCrory (+2)
39% Cooper (-2)
I’m guessing the change here comes from Cooper’s hit from refusing to defend Amendment One. The key question is whether or not some of these potential voters have been lost for good. Two years is more than enough time for the current controversy to blow over. Still, it looks like the GOP strategy of ramping up Cooper’s negatives and tainting his centrist image is working.
Tomorrow we’ll look at the Senate race. The takeaway here is that McCrory isn’t going to be a pushover and Cooper isn’t going to waltz into the governor’s mansion, as appeared to be the case about a year ago. McCrory is vulnerable but Cooper shouldn’t be overestimated as a candidate. The national environment will also be a factor and if things still look bad for Democrats then that will make it harder for them to make McCrory a one-termer.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Cooper has made the wrong choice on these two issues. In order to serve you must do what the majority asked? Because they can vote you in or out!
I know that several years ago when I contacted Cooper’s office regarding illegal things being done by Sec of State, I was ultimately advised that it was his job to protect the SOS. I thought it was his job to protect the Citizens of N. Carolina. We don’t need this man governing our State. It would be a horrific mistake to vote him in.
I like to know about Secretary of state issue
Foxx is not at HUD, He was Transporation Secretary last time I looked.
Coopers refusal to waste taxpayer money on pursuing a gay marriage law suit is both wise and practical. His personal views have nothing to do with it. He is an attorney acting in the best for his client (the people of NC). Federal courts are going to shoot the whole business down under equal protection and due process. This law suit may enrich the lives of a few fundamentalists so let them pay for it. Gov. Patty has a lot going on with respect to his inefficient handling of Duke Power’s pollution and several other issues. I would suspect preventing cancer causing chemicals from finding a home in the states water supply outweighs a desire to save NC from gay marriage. The republican governor of South Carolina appears to be addressing it. The quality of life is more important.
I have a feeling both Cooper and McCrory will be very careful publicly between now and 2016. I’d love for Cooper to win just so Democrats could be in charge of the County Boards of Elections again (I hate how the Republican led county boards have been trying to mess with college/university voting sites). Of course if Democrats can’t manage to take away the GOP super majority in at least the State House (they are only like 3 seats away so it’s definately within reach) there won’t be much Cooper can do to try to moderate the G.A.
I think you are kidding yourself about conservative Democrats being unwilling to support Cooper. They see the lackey for the right wing GA that McCrory has become and won’t vote for him, but turnout could be suppressed. If the wing nut Rs successfully “primary” McCrory with yet another wing nut, the conservative Ds certainly won’t vote for him, but this should enhance D turnout.