PPP released their latest poll on the U.S. Senate race yesterday. Hagan holds her largest lead since September, before the Obamacare fiasco. Tom Jensen says it’s because the legislature is back in session, which is reasonable, or it could be the flurry of positive ads up on the air touting Hagan’s work in the Senate.

General election

Kay Hagan – 39% (+1)
Thom Tillis – 34% (-2)
Sean Haugh – 11% (no change)

No candidate cracks 40%. Notably, Sean Haugh is still at 11%. This number will probably fade as we get closer to Election Day and his voters either drop out of the voting pool or switch to another candidate. But if he keeps up this performance, and other poll shows him with similar numbers, then he has a real chance to be invited to the debates. This should be the main goal for Mr. Haugh – and for the Hagan campaign.

It’s too bad Haugh is more of a left-libertarian than someone disenchanted conservatives could really rally behind, like Tim D’Annunzio. Too bad for Hagan, that is. When all is said and done, I think Haugh will end up with about 3% of the vote. Maybe 4%, if he’s lucky. That’s a very good showing for a Libertarian and I think it’ll be because the coming campaign is going to end with folks sick of both candidates.

Without Haugh, Hagan leads 42-38, with 20% undecided. That’s a fairly large undecided percentage.

Favorable/Unfavorable
Number in parentheses: net favorability. Next number: change from last month
Hagan 42/46 (-4) +7
Tillis 23/45 (-22) -6

Oh my. Hagan’s approval rating is actually quite a bit better from last month. I think the positive ads are having an effect. Tillis’s favorable rating, on the other hand, has gotten worse, which again is probably due to the legislature being more visible.

Obama Job Rating
41% Approve
53% Disapprove

This is a registered voter poll; with likely voters Obama’s approval is probably even lower. He’s definitely a millstone around Hagan’s neck that she’s going to have to overcome if she wants to get reelected. It certainly looks like it will be a question whether state issues or national issues will determine the outcome of this race.

Supreme Court Race
20% Robin Hudson
15% Eric Levinson

With the absence of any partisan identification, voters have no clue which to choose. I think Levinson has a strong chance of taking this seat, but Robin Hudson is a woman, and that should count for something. Also, and this goes without saying, Republicans need to learn from their mistakes and not make any ads involving child rapists that will inevitably backfire. (Instead, do a reprise of “Tough but Fair” from 2012.)

General Assembly Approval
18% Approve
54% Disapprove

Nothing to see here. But hurts Tillis.

Raise the Minimum Wage?
55% Support
34% Oppose

PPP keeps trying to get Hagan to campaign on this minimum wage issue, but the support isn’t so overwhelming to give her a huge advantage. I’m actually surprised the oppose number is so high. When free market types say raising the minimum wage results in lost jobs, voters listen … Republicans should just refrain from suggesting its abolition.

Fracking
29% Support
38% Oppose
33% Not Sure

The voters who care about this issue feel very strongly about it, but a third don’t seem to have an opinion, which suggests they don’t care. Both sides need to educate their supporters on this issue if they want to win in the arena of public opinion. But fracking opponents are a plurality of voters.

Best way to fund teacher raises?
55% Raise taxes on those making more than $250K
19% Sell more lottery tickets
12% Eliminate teacher assistants

Ooh, ooh! I’ll choose ‘get rid of teacher assistants’! We’ve got some mean people in this state. What did teacher assistants ever do to them?

Not surprisingly, a majority goes with the tried-and-true Democratic solution to everything: raise taxes on the rich. You’ll always have the wealthy. Voters don’t see why these yacht club people won’t “pay a little extra”. And when the rich people protest, it’s hard to sympathize with them. After all, they make more than $250,000 a year. Screw them!

Averaging the Polls
Kay Hagan – 37.5%
Thom Tillis – 36.5%
Sean Haugh – 9.5%

Only two polls entered into the poll average, and Hagan leads by 1 point. Haugh is almost in double-digits, so it’s not just PPP (though they could have a motive in making him look even stronger than he actually is.) The race hasn’t even started yet, voters aren’t paying attention, and they won’t pay attention until late August at the earliest. When that time comes, brace yourself – no matter who you support, you’ll be ready for this thing to be over.