The latest North Carolina survey from Deez Nuts Polling has the state’s two top Republican incumbents in dissimilar situations for reelection. The governor is unpopular and Burr’s numbers aren’t too hot either, but McCrory trails Attorney General Roy Cooper by 3 while Senator Burr leads all of his Democratic challengers by a 7-8 point margin. Any changes from last month? Let’s take a look.

McCrory Approval
35% Approve (+2)
48% Disapprove (no change)

McCrory’s approval is actually up since last month, but really there’s been no change. As PPP notes, North Carolinians look more kindly on Republicans when the legislature isn’t in session, McCrory included. So, the governor should be hopeful that his approval rating will improve once the legislature goes home. But he has quite a ways to go to get back to positive territory.

Cooper Favorability
29% Approve (-7)
25% Disapprove (+5)

Cooper’s favorables tend to bounce around a lot so I wouldn’t get distracted by the trend here. What seems certain is that more North Carolinians like Cooper than dislike him. That will have to change if McCrory wants to get reelected with weak numbers.

2016 Governor
42% Cooper (-1)
39% McCrory (-2)

Cooper has a small lead, same as last month. Status quo here is good for the Democrats. It’s one less month McCrory has to improve his image with voters. Cooper is winning independents narrowly and getting 15% of Republicans, a level of attrition from the GOP that’s not usually seen in the Tar Heel State.

Forest Favorability
15% Favorable
20% Unfavorable

Surprise, surprise – people don’t know their Lieutenant Governor. And PPP tends to find unknown people being unpopular. In a twist, Forest would probably perform better than McCrory if the election was held today – but his race will still be a toss-up (slight edge to Forest if Linda Coleman is the Democratic nominee again.)

Burr Approval
31% Approve (+3)
37% Disapprove (-2)

The drop in Burr’s approval last month appears to have been just noise. Interestingly, his numbers are similar to what PPP found for him at this time in the 2010 election cycle. Burr benefited from good timing then and he might benefit from good timing with Democrats focusing on the governor’s race. Despite a mediocre approval rating, Burr continues to be favored.

Democratic Senate Candidates’ Favorability
Deborah Ross 12/14 (-2) N/A
Heath Shuler 15/17 (-2) no change
Duane Hall 7/14 (-7) N/A
Chris Rey 7/16 (-9) N/A

Of the Democratic candidates, Heath Shuler is the best-known. (Insiders also think he’s a slightly worse than 50-50 bet to enter the race.) Deborah Ross is next thanks to her tenure in the State House, which gave her some name recognition in the Triangle area. Nobody knows what to think about Duane Hall or Chris Rey.

While North Carolina consistently has the most competitive Senate elections in the country, none of these challengers start out with strong name recognition or popularity. Democrats should hope for a 2016 that is favorable to their party if they hope to unseat Burr next year.

2016 Senate
Burr 42% (-2), Shuler 35% (-1)
Burr 44%, Rey 37%
Burr 43%, Ross 36%
Burr 44%, Hall 36%

Burr fails to break 45% against any Democratic challenger. The incumbent achieves his lowest vote share in the Burr/Shuler matchup, but Shuler starts out lowest among the challengers too. Most people think that if the Republican presidential candidate carries North Carolina, Burr will win too. The race will largely be less about Burr and more about what is going on nationally.

Tillis Approval
26% Approve (-6)
44% Disapprove (+8)

Tillis’s approval rate plunges for some reason. Probably a blip, but he’s underwater in any case. The last U.S. Senator from North Carolina to be consistently popular in the state was Sam Ervin, so it’s par for the course.

General Assembly Approval
15% Approve (-5)
60% Disapprove (+2)

The General Assembly is way unpopular. My guess is that it’s because they’ve overstayed their welcome in Raleigh, but I’m willing to entertain other hypotheses.

NC Legislators Favorability by Party
Democrats 33/49 (-16) +2
Republicans 28/54 (-26) -6

NC voters dislike legislative Democrats and really dislike legislative Republicans. Obviously, they know who’s in charge at the General Assembly and know who to blame. But Democrats are not in a strong position to take advantage of this because they’re not well-liked either.

Generic Legislative Ballot
43% Democrat (-3)
42% Republican (no change)

Despite the General Assembly’s unpopularity, Democrats have only a 1-point lead on the generic legislative ballot. What accounts for this? Well, there are a lot of Republicans out there who think the legislature isn’t doing a bang-up job – but that doesn’t mean they’re willing to vote for a Democrat. What these numbers mean is that right now Democrats have a good shot at taking out the GOP’s supermajorities in both chambers – but it’s far from guaranteed. And the numbers might improve for Republicans when they adjourn and the legislature is out of the headlines.

Medicaid Expansion
60% Favor
28% Opposed

When it comes to policy issues, the wording of the survey question is paramount. In this case, voters are asked whether to accept federal funding for Medicaid expansion, with no hint that there might be strings attached. While Medicaid expansion is probably a winning issue for the Democrats regardless, you’d probably see the numbers change if respondents were given more information.