PPP: NC Part of Hillary’s Southern Firewall

by | Jan 21, 2016 | 2016 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics, Poll Analysis, Polling | 13 comments

Public Policy Polling released their latest North Carolina survey. Let’s take a look at the numbers. Overall, not much has changed. Trump is still way out in front while Bernie Sanders is getting blown away in part due to his weakness with minority voters.

Republican primary (with change from last month)
Trump – 38% (+5)
Cruz – 16% (no change)
Rubio – 11% (-3)
Carson – 8% (-6)
Bush/Huckabee – 6% (+1, +4)
Christie – 4% (no change)
Fiorina/Paul – 3% (+1, +1)
Kasich – 2% (-1)
Santorum – 1% (no change)

-Donald Trump is way ahead, and he’s also benefited from the biggest boost in support from last month. His strength in North Carolina reflects his strength nationally. It’s looking increasingly like a Trump coronation, with our state merely affirming the chorus of Trumpism resounding in the GOP.

-Rubio has lost support. After holding a rally this month in Raleigh, he’s going in the wrong direction. His campaign is now supposedly going for a “3-2-1” strategy – a strong third-place showing in Iowa, a surprisingly strong second in New Hampshire, and winning South Carolina outright. That sounds like a real leap to me.

-Carson has completely collapsed, losing almost half his support.

-Kasich is supposedly surging in New Hampshire, but that’s clearly not the case here. Other than Trump, the candidate with the most “momentum” is Huckabee. Maybe evangelicals are starting to remember him as the voting gets closer. No matter: he’ll be out after Iowa.

Democratic primary (with change from last month)
Clinton – 59% (-1)
Sanders – 26% (+5)
O’Malley – 5% (-5)

Sanders is up 5 from last month, but you’ll see the anti-Clinton vote is the same.

With white Democrats, Hillary leads 49/33. But she’s absolutely crushing Sanders with the black vote: 77/12. If Sanders wins one of the early states and gets some momentum, he’ll no doubt improve with all voters, even those groups where he’s very weak. But it’s hard – very hard – to see him contesting North Carolina or the rest of the South if he continues to struggle with African Americans.

Equally alarming to Bernie supporters should be the fact that his supporters are less committed than Hillary’s. Sounds counterintuitive, but that’s what the numbers say: 78% of Hillary voters say they’ve made up their mind and won’t change it before the voting, but with Sanders it’s a 50-50 split.

Also, what’s Martin O’Malley still doing here?

NC general election
Rubio 47%; Clinton 42% (R+5)
Carson 47%; Clinton 44% (R+3)
Cruz 46%; Clinton 43% (R+3)
Trump 45%; Clinton 43% (R+2)
Bush 45%; Clinton 43% (R+2)

If you’re a Republican and electability is your main concern, then Rubio is your man. Donald Trump and Jeb Bush have the weakest leads against Hillary. Last month, Trump led her by 4 and Bush only tied her, whatever that’s worth.

Overall, PPP’s findings tend to support the conventional wisdom that Republicans have the advantage in the race for our state’s 15 electoral votes – but it’s still very possible the GOP ends up with an unelectable nominee, putting them in a situation where anything can happen.

My prediction: when it comes to the primaries, Trump might just run the table and Hillary could struggle to wrap up the nomination. That means the NC March primary electorate might be much more Democratic-leaning than we anticipated. We’ll know much more in just two weeks.

13 Comments

  1. Russell S. Day (@Transcendian)

    For first I do not put as much faith as I supposedly ought to in polls. In the US we know that in this climate we are sold lies daily. I keep up with economics as the creative economist, and see naked capitalism predicts deflation. The Petrodollar started its wobble when economic warfare was undertaken with Russia. The death of the head of Total 3 months after his statement that there was no reason at all that the deal for US dollars needed to still be in place, in a jet that has never crashed before was very very suspicious. (Another Falcon was shot down in 1985.)
    The mistreatment of Vets by the C.S.A. otherwise known as the GOP, is understood by military veterans who compose a great number of NC voters with its 10 military bases and on whom the NC economy depends on as an educated workforce. If they consider Trump and the GOP for 60 seconds they ought not rationally vote Republican.
    10,000 a year enter civilian occupations in NC. Democrats consistently fail to make themselves look good far as the military is concerned, but they they defer at least as much as the GOP to the military desires. My last email from Price indicated NC would get the superhighway from Morehead City to I-40 and 1-95 when the military wants it. He is Chairman of the Congressional Transportation Committee I think. Unfortunately he seems to have become a secretive creature of the Washington political culture.
    If Clinton and Trump along with the rest of the GOP are seen for what they really are: Appeasers of Wealth, we could see Sanders win.
    What affects the slowing of China, Refugee Crisis in Europe, Syrian War that festered as all others in the world wait for the US to do some more bloodletting for them will have as respect for the US currency diminishes during a very dangerous resolution to the 100 Years Oil War will have to be blamed on someone, and the usual suspect in the form of Obama the current War Dictator as Electoral Presidential Democracy creates.
    Clinton is definitely “tone deaf” when lauding President Obama and her husband far as war for territory or even souls is concerned. Drone kills are a tactic, not a strategy.
    Sanders has said some about HRCs record from Libya, politely, but she did not better than Bush Cheney when outcomes after a win matter.
    As Founder of Transcendia and forced to become a creative economist after Greenspan’s insults to the working man, I have offered ways out, especially with the Insurodollar as an alternative to the Petrodollar Imperative.
    I definitely don’t need Trump to make me Great again. Nor do I want to see Hillary AND Bill back to partying in the White House with all their friends who have bought their way into their affections, as did Trump.
    Meantime if my job is to prevent the apocalyptic riot, I look for where the tanks are parked.

    • Vonna Viglione

      People counting on African Americans as a “lock” for Sec Clinton are not factoring in the organizational and communication efforts of the Moral Movement movement…it is non partisan but Sen Sanders issues and entire life history bring him into close alignment with their goals and principals….

      And as for vets….Even career military don’t sign up for “perpetual warfare” and vets are a huge part of the South’s demographic….the activists in those ranks KNOW the GOP has not bee vet friendly….and here in NC, at least, those vets know that Sen Richard Burr led the opposition to services, funding and anything past lip service for vets AND their families…they also know that Sen Sanders reached across the aisle to craft bi-partisan legislation for vets….He has earned their respect, trust and support.

      It’s going to be VERY interesting to see how it all turns out….Very, very interesting……

  2. Charles Hogan

    I don’t know if you have noticed but due to the latest revelations about HRC email Bernie has left Hilliary in the dust in the latest Iowa poll with a 29 point lead over her.

  3. Vonna Viglione

    I know that Reverend Barber doesn’t endorse people but his Moral Monday activists are a real cross section of diverse groups ….. I have to believe that Sen Sanders would be a very logical choice for many of us in that number….regardless of race…And there are many other states in the South with their own Moral Monday Movements……THAT is a factor that may make a difference….I sincerely think it might……

  4. Apply Liberally

    I’ll believe that HRC is indicted over her emails when Cruz is made ineligible to serve as POTUS over his citizenship. And right now, there are more prominent legal experts who believe the latter is much more likely to happen than the former.
    I am no Hillary fan, but the fact remains that federal law nor State Department policy did not preclude HRC from using private email during her years as SoS.

  5. Avram Friedman

    Primary polls in North Carolina are particularly meaningless at this point since there has been no campaigning here yet by the Presidential candidates. When Bernie Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire all this will change. The more people learn about Sanders the more they like him. When North Carolinians start paying attention they’ll like him too.

    • Melinda Baran

      Avram, I agree with your opinion about Bernie. North Carolinians will appreciate his authenticity–a character trait that Clinton does not have. And, as a Republican, I hear a lot of people saying something to the effect of– “I’ll vote for Clinton when hell freezes over.”

  6. Melinda Baran

    According to this week’s latest news from the Inspector General, Hillary may not be an eligible candidate for President. If she is indicted for gross negligence in sending and receiving her classified intelligence e-mails–she may need to withdraw from the race before the Presidential elections happen in November.

  7. A. D. Reed

    I’m sure that Bernie activists are meeting lots of other Bernie activists when they work together for Bernie — including black voters who support him. That’s rather axiomatic, kind of like saying “everyone I speak to says Trump can’t win the presidency”; which is great, until you realize that “everyone I speak to” is a fellow Democrat.

    I realize it’s comforting to challenge Wynn’s columns (I do it myself), especially his opinions, with which I generally disagree; but one’s personal experience, as different as it might be from the large-scale polling results, doesn’t change those results.

    Almost all of my good friends, especially those who are white women of Hillary’s generation, are Bernheads; for whatever reason, these sisters “can’t stand” or “don’t trust” or “don’t like” Hillary — or don’t like Bill and the fact that Hillary stayed married to “a sleazebag.” Me, well, I support Clinton, but if I went by my own experience I’d say Bernie’s gonna win it in a walk. But that don’t make it so.

    • cosmicjanitor

      Like you said A.D., it may not make it so, but the more people who express their support for an honest candidate like Bernie the better his momentum gets! Hillary Clinton is a scoundrel in every conceivable sense of the word, plain and simple.

    • Nortley

      Personally speaking I like BOTH Secretary Clinton AND Sen. Sanders and will happily and eagerly vote for whichever is the nominee.

  8. Carole Schaefer

    That was 30 years. My computer is having issues and skips.

  9. Carole Schaefer

    I don’t know what news services you are reading but Bernie Sanders has a very active base here in NC. Black voters I’ve met are supporting him because of his civil rights record for the last 0+ years of his career.

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