Another post on the Republican primary for the North Carolina Senate race. PPP is out with their new poll on the Republican field. Let’s take a look at it.
Republican field
Numbers in parentheses indicates change in support from last poll
Tillis – 46% (+28)
Brannon – 20% (+5)
Harris – 11% (no change)
Undecided – 10% (-24)
Grant – 5% (-2)
Snyder – 3% (+1)
Alexander – 2% (-4)
Kryn – 2% (+1)
Bradshaw – 1% (-4)
PPP shows a huge Tillis surge. He’s swept almost all the undecideds, of which there are only 10% left. Brannon has also gained, but not nearly as much. And Harris hasn’t gained at all. As for Heather Grant, she’s actually lost support, which contradicts my theory that with the debate exposure she would break into double-digit territory. There’s still a week left, but barring a huge gaffe, PPP pretty much says Tillis has this wrapped up. If the undecideds end up reflecting the current breakdown among decided voters, Tillis should end up with right around 51%.
Favorable/Unfavorable (primary election voters)
First number: net favorability. Second number: change in support from last poll
Brannon 47/15 (+32) +27
Tillis 56/24 (+32) +30
Harris 41/15 (+26) +26
Grant 25/17 (+8) +16
Alexander 17/15 (+2) +8
Bradshaw 17/16 (+1) +11
Snyder 19/18 (+1) +9
Kryn 16/17 (-1) +7
Republicans have gotten to know the candidates a lot more and the last few weeks, and the result is they like them a lot better. Brannon and Tillis have the highest net favorable ratings, but Tillis is much better known. Tillis’s image has improved the most among Republican primary voters, which is almost certainly because he’s constantly been on television. The other candidates haven’t improved as much because they haven’t been airing ads, and PPP shows unknown candidates with more negative ratings by default.
Brannon is actually well-liked among Republican primary voters. But they don’t know him as well, and the result is they’re not giving him their support. If only Brannon had money, he might be able to air some television ads and make this a competitive race with Tillis, but he doesn’t.
Averaging the Polls
Averaging this poll and the SurveyUSA/Civitas poll from last week yields the following results:
Tillis – 43%
Brannon – 20%
Harris – 13%
Grant – 4%
Snyder – 3%
Alexander – 2%
Kryn – 2%
Bradshaw – 1%
Undecided – 10%
So, right now Tillis is in a good position to win the primary outright. But primaries are notoriously hard to poll, so May 6th should still be interesting. I predict Tillis will indeed win the primary outright, but it will be closer than a lot of people expect and it’s possible he falls just short of 40%. This is especially the case if he makes a late gaffe, or something else happens which hurts his credibility with Republican primary voters. If that does happen, look for a Tillis runoff with Greg Brannon, and a very ugly summer contest.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
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