The latest NC poll from Public Policy Polling shows that not much has changed in the races for the state’s top offices. Governor Pat McCrory has low approval ratings and trails his prospective Democratic opponent, state Attorney General Roy Cooper. Senator Richard Burr leads a bunch of unknown Democrats by fairly comfortable margins despite an anonymous profile and middling approvals.
McCrory Approval
33% Approve (-5)
48% Disapprove (+4)
McCrory’s approval is, in a word, dreadful. It’s on par with his lows in September of 2013, after the legislature wrapped up a starkly conservative session and ran over the governor in the process. But, as we’ll see later, his poor approval rating is not the whole story.
In addition, it should be noted that all state Republicans tend to take a hit when the legislature is in session. McCrory’s approvals should rebound at least slightly. At this point though, it looks like McCrory’s moves to the middle have angered conservatives while not doing anything to improve his standing with moderates.
Cooper Favorability
36% Favorable (+4)
20% Unfavorable (-4)
Right now McCrory’s reelection campaign needs to make this a lesser of two evils contest. So far though Cooper’s favorables are still pretty high. They’re not stratospheric by any means and his image could easily be damaged in a brutal negative campaign, but at least going into the race Democrats look to have a fairly popular Attorney General as their candidate.
2016 Governor
43% Cooper (-1)
41% McCrory (no change)
Nothing has really changed. This looks like a toss-up, but it’s concerning for McCrory that Cooper is not nearly as well-known as the governor but still leads. McCrory is also at 41%. If you believe in the “undecideds go for the challenger” theory then you’re probably seeing Roy Cooper prevailing on Election Day next year.
In concluding this assessment of McCrory, I will repeat the old cliche that this next election will be a choice, not a referendum. Cooper is going to have to step up to the plate and weather the negative attacks that will be launched by the NC GOP and the McCrory campaign. Remember, Jim Hunt once led Jesse Helms in the polls by about 20 points.
Now let’s look at Richard Burr.
Burr Approval
28% Approve (-7)
39% Disapprove (+3)
Both McCrory and Burr have seen steep drops in approval since the last poll, so I would wait for next month to see if this is just a blip or a real trend. In terms of head-to-heads, however, the numbers look about the same, which means Burr leads all of his potential opponents.
Democratic Senate Candidates Favorability
Beth Wood 16/11 (+5) N/A
Dan Blue 18/16 (+2) +4
Grier Martin 11/12 (-1) no change
Brad Miller 14/14
Heath Shuler 17/19 (-2)
Mike McIntyre 12/15 (-3) -4
All of the Democratic candidates are unknown. State Auditor Beth Wood, who has not been mentioned as a Senate candidate in the past, has the highest favorable rating. (My theory that the names of women tend to elicit more positive responses still holds up.) Other than that, there’s not much to say here.
2016 Senate
44% Burr
36% Shuler
44% Burr (+1)
35% McIntyre (+1)
45% Burr (-3)
35% Blue (+1)
46% Burr
36% Miller
45% Burr
34% Wood
47% Burr (+1)
33% Martin (+2)
Shuler and McIntyre, who have name recognition from their years in the U.S. Congress, perform strongest against Burr. But it’s hard to see them being the nominees of a party that’s well to the left of their voting records. Burr does best against Grier Martin, who is the most unknown of the potential candidates.
Bottom line: Burr is potentially vulnerable if 2016 is a strong Democratic year, but you can’t beat something with nothing. Right now Democrats don’t have a candidate.
Lieutenant Governor
43% Forest (+2)
36% Coleman (-1)
And finally, a rematch in the Lieutenant Governor’s race yields a 7-point lead by incumbent Republican Dan Forest. Against Coleman, Forest should probably be favored through the election cycle.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Figure every North Carolina Republican signed the Norquist Naton Pledge, essentially in spirit a licensure to do all in the great accountants power to not pay taxes. McCrory can’t be popular with regular citizen voters, if they can afford to drive at the best of gas prices to the polls. One minute it is Treasury desperation, then whoopee we found a surplus. How about that, We screwed you out of Medicaid! Wasn’t that close. I wouldn’t have believed Cooper was ahead. It’s like the US Dollar as a reserve currency. Only European Austerity with a better grip, raising fears of a powerful Germany and a glassy eyed stumbling over the Russian aggressions, also enabled by incredible corruption to make an African Petro King “President” look like a piker. Of course nothing of the Palace left as desirable to tourists as the Biltmore, since war zones only call on the war junkie journalists. I see now The Connect Bond, revolving around prosperity zones now mentions “Education” as a selling point. Next what to sell it? Barbecues? One super highway from Morehead City to I 40 and the final mile out of Wilminton of the slowdown RR left out of the NC RR Company buy out, apparently, they talked so softly of it while pointing to old school warehouses unique to modern port facilities on the DOT youtube report I watched that all I could feel was fear of toe treading as is the most common attitude of all with power, out of power I encounter. Vote for the bond, we’ll save the taxes to pay it off and make the unwilling to pay taxes happy all around.
He may not be a viable candidate, but Grier Martin would make a fine Senator. Problem is, nobody outside of NC House 34 knows this. Unless he (or any of the others for that matter) can figure out a way to overcome that obstacle, I weep at the prospect of another 6 years of Richard Burr, LLC.