Well, it’s that time of year again. 2015 is nothing but a memory and 2016 is all anticipation. Let’s review my predictions for 2015 and I’ll make a few for the upcoming election year.
Last New Year’s Day, I predicted that scandals would continue to plague Pat McCrory. I got that one right. I said that Tim Moore would emerge as a consensus builder. While I can make the case I was right on some level, he’s under full attack from members of his caucus right now so maybe I missed on that one. I also said that Democrats would struggle to find a top-tier candidate to challenge Richard Burr and I’ll consider that right even though Chris Rey and Deborah Ross did get in the race in the fall.
I predicted a budget hole that never emerged but teachers and state employees still didn’t get significant raises. And people are comparing North Carolina to Kansas.
I said that an anti-Cooper candidate would emerge. While Ken Spaulding is trying to fill that role, he’s yet to establish any real presence and missed the opportunity to build a significant social media campaign that might have tapped into the Bernie Sanders contingent. As predicted, Cooper has raised the money to ensure his nomination and give him momentum against McCrory.
I was wrong when I predicted we would already be seeing ads in both the Senate and gubernatorial races. I thought third party groups would already be engaged in an air war. We’re still waiting to see any real money spent in North Carolina.
That’s it for 2015. The upcoming year is far more exciting. I predict that Ted Cruz becomes the GOP nominee after proving that he has a formidable ground operation in caucus states. Trump watches his popularity decline after showing everybody what a sore loser looks like following his defeat in the Iowa caucuses. Trump threatens to run as a third party but backs down after getting a sweet speaking spot at the GOP convention. Cruz picks South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as his running mate.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton wins the nomination but Sanders stays in the fight through March. In a surprise move, Clinton chooses Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren as her running mate, giving Sanders supporters a solid reason to stay involved and virtually locking down the female vote.
In North Carolina, Ted Cruz edges out Marco Rubio in the Republican primary while Trump supporters show that they like to cheer on his racist and xenophobic rhetoric more than they like to actually vote. Hillary Clinton wins the primary but Sanders carries Orange and Buncombe Counties.
In down ballot primaries, Holly Jones wins the nomination for lieutenant governor and Dan Blue III becomes the Democratic nominee for state treasurer. The two offer a hint of the future for North Carolina Democrats, bringing much needed freshness and energy to the ticket.
In the general election, Clinton-Warren handily defeat Cruz-Haley, even in North Carolina. Scandals finally catch up to the GOP and McCrory loses under a cloud of suspicion. Democrats pick up the seats they need to sustain a Cooper veto. All the Democrats on the Council of State hold their seats and Blue and Jones both win.
Down in North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District, a first-time candidate launches an aggressive campaign against incumbent Richard Hudson. Hudson is forced to actually mount a campaign, leading many voters to learn that they actually have a congressman and that his name is Richard Hudson.
That’s all until next year.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
It would be naive to believe that political predictions by people running for office are not biased by personal beliefs, rather than objective in nature. Surely you realize, Thomas, there is always an element of attempted self-fulfilled prophesy in every prediction by a public figure. Your words have influence and by predicting that Hillary Clinton will win you further the goals of her campaign, intentionally or not.
I don’t agree with your conclusion or your purpose in that regard and, if I were in the 8th Congressional District it would influence my vote knowing the Democratic candidate was not supporting the only honest Presidential candidate in the race, Bernie Sanders.
I also think your decision to back Hillary Clinton is a mistake in terms of your own self-interests as an underdog in a Republican-controlled District. Polls and past performance indicate that Bernie Sanders will carry many more Republican and independent votes along with an increased Democratic turnout on Election Day than Hillary Clinton would, if she were to get the nomination. The Sanders landslide forecast would result in many more down-ticket Democrats being elected, including you, perhaps. No such effect would result from a Clinton ticket, even if Elizabeth Warren would agree to run with her (doubtful). Historically it is clear that people vote for the Presidential candidate, not the Vice-Presidential candidate. Much more likely, more Republicans would come to the polls just to vote AGAINST Clinton. Some of those same Republicans would instead vote for Sanders as about 30% of them did in his last Senatorial election in Vermont. You see, even many rank and file Republicans choose candidates on the basis of their honesty, integrity and authenticity.
If you want to attract that kind of support in the general election it’s probably best you start now in using Bernie Sanders as your role model for success.
Anyone exstolling Billary Clinton as a viable presidential candidate would do well to look into her approval of advanced military weapons sales to every country that made major donations to the Clinton Foundation – such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE; also noting that military contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Raytheon also made generous contributions to the foundation as well. Considering her suspect transactions as Secretary of State, along with her warrior mentality in the wholesale military destruction of Libya and her calls for boots on the ground and a no-fly zone over Syria to combat terrorists who have no air forces – coupled with the fact that Syria has never requested US. Military intervention in its sovereign affairs, and you start to get a realistic picture of just who this liar is: a pro-war neo-con, financial establishment insider who is unfit to be an active participant in the ranks of the US. political system, no less its president.
Hillary Clinton has repeatedly specified that “boots on the ground” in Syria are to be Special Forces – as are already there, and NO others. She has also repeatedly said the “no fly zone” is a refuge for Syrians and that she sees it as diplomatic leverage in negotiations with Assad. Disagreeing with her is ok but misstating her is not.
Not Conscious is great real estate. The working classes are politically cowed and in both parties are afraid to think for themselves. Gerrymandering restrictions & confusion about voting will benefit the Right Wing. McCrory’s propaganda that twists populous defeats into great victories while effectively sweeping corruptions of missions of government and outright corruptions will be well obscured and swept under the rug. Cooper’s campaign trades in platitudes and asks for money, as do the rest of the Republican lite Democrats. More will be made of the military as an economic engine. More fear will be sold, and be a seller. Democrats will continue to be reactionary, not revolutionary. I offer the Transcendian Party, and the Insurodollar.
The highest population growth rate states in the US include (in descending order): ND, TX, CO, UT, FL, AZ, NV, SD, SC, ID, and NC. Lots of people (i.e., “droves,” in some folks’ vocabulary) are moving to them. With the arguable exception of ND and SD, it’s most likely that the the major attraction at work is the more moderate weather and/or attractive landscapes that the huge cohort of Baby Boomer retirees (who can afford to re-locate) are seeking.
And I’d also argue that NC should never aspire to be anything like those other states — IMO, they are, with the social, cultural and political backwaters.
You may be right that “people are comparing North Carolina to Kansas,” but people are moving to NC in droves. Apparently, negative propaganda from the left has not discouraged a surge of new residents from locating here.
I’d put the odds on your Democrat and GOP tickets at about 99 to1, and the odds that a Clinton/Warren ticket win NC at about 500 to1. I can’t tell–is that wishful thinking or self delusion? Or perhaps a little of both?
Nancy,
I never return those surveys. I figure that they have already assigned me an opinion and that the returned surveys are simply weighed in order to determine if enough voters read them to make the cost of printing the self-advertisement worthwhile, even with the free postal service.
Same with me re: my congressman, George Holding. The guy does nothing on major middle class issues, spews Tea Party pablum, and is just a closedminded empty suit.
Holding IS beatable, being in the most vulnerable district, but his opponent needs two things to win….more money from the national Party and enough smarts to use a wedge issue against Holding….example, his district has 75,000-100,000 veterans depending on whether you believe the Census Bureau or the VA, and Holding has been utterly AWOL on issues that the veteran community care about….a smart challenger would exploit that. Also, his support will be softer this time around anyway because a lot of Rep voters are more disgruntled with him than in 2014.
Lee, you have reminded me that I have a constituent survey tomput in the mail asking whether I support certain isses, including Obamacare and admitting Syrian refugees. The survey didn’t ask, but I wrote in the margin “I support planned parenthood.”. The jerk. My blood boils every time I get one of his fake town hall telephone calls!
I should have proofread my post. It’s a little hard to reply using a tablet.
Here’s one more: An upstart political orgainization called Make It Count rolls up the Voter Information Verification Act and swats the Republicans on the backside until they cry like little children.
Yes, I know that Richard Hudson is my congressman. He tells me so when he spams my answering machine. He regularly sends me franked flyers extolling the thriftiness with which he and his cronies distribute my money. In these flyers he asks my opinion on important matters such as whether Obamacare is bad or terrible.
I don’t think Warren would be willing to run with Clinton. I’m pretty certain Sanders wouldn’t. I know it’s becoming the conventional wisdom that Clinton’s financial industry ties somehow don’t really matter, but they’re real and to people like Warren and Sanders they are important. In any case, an all-white ticket would be a step backward for Dems, the party already made a major mistake in not getting a top tier candidate of color into the primary race. I’d be on the lookout for Castro, or possibly even Cory Booker or Deval Patrick. A more likely female VP nod than warren would be someone like Tammy Duckworth.
Nikki Haley is a savvy thought but a GOP nominee, especially a guy as unlikeable as Cruz, probably needs a boost in a swing state to have even a prayer of victory. Cruz is tricky because all of the national party people hate him so badly that it’s hard to imagine who would be willing to go there, but I think it probably has to be someone from Ohio or Florida, or maybe Virginia. Not sure who that’d be though.
Also, not to pick a fight but if you’re boosting Jones as the future of the state party it seems like it would be more appropriate to note somewhere that you’re running her campaign.
Mills has mentioned several times in these blogs his role in Jones’ campaign. And can you not see the masthead of every one of his blogs?
You have to win the primary to name a running mate. That is far from certain.
Sanders seems – to me – like Hillary’s obvious choice for VP.
Disappointed not to see a prediction for McCrory v. Cooper.
Read more closely. I predicted McCrory loses under a cloud of suspicion.
You are correct. My apologies.
Your Clinton-Warren and Cruz-Haley ticket forecast is thought provoking in so many ways.
C-W would definitely attract many women voters, and Warren’s selection would be much more than a crumb thrown to Bernie fans. Plus, the intellectual horsepower of those two would serve them and the nation well, not only during any debates, but also in office.
Cruz, if nominated, might indeed select Haley, perhaps as means to blunt any rush of women voters towards Hillary. But that choice could also repel quite a few of the conservative, testosterone-driven crowd, especially in the South. Haley could be seen as the woman who “caved” to so-called political correctness as she led the effort to remove the CSA battle flag from capitol grounds in SC. And I cannot see any ticket that includes two Southern neo-conservatives with strong Tea Party support faring well with the rest of the nation’s voters.
“But that choice could also repel quite a few of the conservative, testosterone-driven crowd, especially in the South.”
That “South” left the station long ago. In SC, certainly one of the most “southern” states in the country as far as culture, Haley had a 56-28 approval rating in the last PPP poll. She also won re-election in 2014 with the largest margin of victory in a SC governor’s race 24 years.
Yes, I know the PPP polling for Haley looks positive, but it’s full of potholes. From PPP:
“PPP’s newest South Carolina poll finds that Nikki Haley has become one of the most popular Governors in the country…but that voters still don’t want to see her as the Republican Vice Presidential candidate next year. 56% of voters in the state approve of the job Haley is doing to only 28% who disapprove. Her numbers with Republicans (71/18) and independents (53/27) are good but what really sets her apart from other Governors across the country is that she’s at almost break even (40/42) even with Democratic voters. That’s a very unusual amount of cross over support these days. The good numbers with Democrats are particularly fueled by her being at 45/30 with African Americans, suggesting continued goodwill toward her for the leadership she provided in taking down the Confederate flag. Despite (or perhaps because of) Haley’s popularity, only 25% of voters want to see her on the Republican ticket next year to 59% who don’t want her to be.”
So, she’s very strong in SC, but her potential candidacy as VP is not getting much support in SC at all. The rest of the South’s pro-CSA-battle-flaggers may not have as much fond feelings for her role in taking down that flag. Plus, if she is the VP candidate, and is thus forced to adopt/defend the harsher right-wing, Tea Party positions of her running-mate/standard bearer Cruz, she is set to lose a major piece of that independent, AfAm, and Dem crossover support.
I am little disappointed that the front runner for my vote would predict Hillary Clinton’s victory. I believe someone fully committed to resolving income inequality would assess the likelihood and degree of a candidate effectively fighting income inequality and take into account the source of contributions to each candidate. With that in hand the remarkable ascendancy of Bernie Sanders campaign would provide too much hope for real change and there would be no benefit to predicting a less optimum outcome. Polls are clearly showing that Bernie fares better than Hillary against Trump and the other republicans head to head. I will hope that you come to a realization that your hopes of victory come from Bernie supercharging turnout and inspiring the selection of a team with a mission to back him on the positions he shares with the majority of voters. You almost certainly have my vote, but not yet my financial support. I will not contribute to any candidate that endorses a candidate other than Bernie Sanders in the primary.
Mr. Mills did not endorse Hillary Clinton, he simply predicted it. No Democrat running for office will endorse anyone in any other primary election.
Noted and appreciated. I have met Christian Cano at a meet and greet and made a contribution, after seeing an appreciative tweet about the energy Bernie Sanders supporters were bringing to the campaign. Thomas has my vote all but locked up, but I hadn’t ever contributed to a campaign before Bernie, and the willingness to commit to real change is what it will take to push me over the edge.
Your second sentence is false, Raúl Grijalva of Arizona has already done so.
And more to the point Alex Law of New Jersey who is, like Thomas, not an incumbent.
And Thomas Mills goes from blogger to elected politician!
But is Mills providing a wish list or realistic expectations in his predictions?