It’s a fool’s errand to make predictions for an election with a bunch of competitive races and extremely low turnout. But I’m going to make some anyway, at the risk of looking very foolish.
NC-02 Republican The race that’s getting all the buzz, probably because it’s in the Triangle. George Holding is going to win big. The real battle will be for second place. I predict Ellmers takes it thanks to momentum from the last minute Donald Trump endorsement. Holding wins every county in the district except Harnett.
NC-03 Republican This is a rematch between Congressman Walter Jones and Taylor Griffin. It’s gotten surprisingly little attention. My guess is that Jones wins again, by roughly the same margin as last time. Griffin has been trying to paint Jones as an Obama liberal who has gotten out of touch with the 3rd District, so an upset is possible.
NC-04 Republican Sue Googe defeats her opponent Teiji Kimball in the primary by a large margin, winning the right to go against Democrat David Price in November.
NC-08 Republican Congressman Richard Hudson wins against businessman Tim D’Annunzio, but the margin will be closer than one might expect. Much of the district is new to the incumbent.
NC-09 Republican My guess is this one will be decided late. Congressman Robert Pittenger has the advantage, but a lot of the district is completely new territory to him.
NC-12 Democratic I haven’t been following this race that closely, but I do know this: Alma Adams is the incumbent, and the anti-Adams vote will be divided between a number of Charlotte candidates. Even though Adams has been hit for her residency issues, being an incumbent still helps. I think the race is a toss-up between her and former State Senator Malcolm Graham. But if history is any indication, Adams will outperform everyone’s expectations tonight.
NC-13 Republican I’m not even going to try to predict what’s going to happen here. There’s 17 candidates and about half of them are viable. OK, fine … Rep. Julia Howard wins by a larger than expected margin.
Feel free to post your own predictions in the comments below.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
I won’t predict who will win, but I will predict that all the voters of NC lose again with a low turnout election in districts that were once again gerrymandered to engineer a mostly preordained result.
And please, spare me the umbrage about the Democrats.
I was an UNA in 1990 and 2000 and I supported reasonable, non-partisan districts when the NCGOP wanted them and I still support the concept today.
Imagine if we had reasonably drawn districts and had held our primary on the normal date in May…NC would have had a lot of national attention that was not HB 2 focused…
Greg Brannon was previously endorsed by Rand Paul. We need more people like Paul that focus on common sense legislation and actually read the bills. I hope the best for him tonight.
What about the 5th Congressional District. The Tea Party types are mounting a major effort to oust Virginia Foxx. There is also a contested Democrat primary in the 5th.
You obviously don’t know her. She is extremely savvy, travels all over the district, has an influential leadership position in the U.S House and will be co-chair of the Platform Committee at the GOP Convention, She has had a very successful political career at the state and federal levels and is still going strong. It would be a real shame if some nit wit malcontent defeated her in a low turnout primary election.
OMG D.g., you’re actually trying to link childhood obesity with the minimum wage? That has to be the ultimate in political absurdity. LOL And no doubt Virginia Foxx is to blame for bad nutrition. What partisan nonsense!
BTW, Ms. Foxx won her primary last night with 68 percent of the vote. She even handily won Forsyth County, the home of her opponent. Guess the voters in the newly drawn 5th District don’t think she is to blame for childhood obesity or any other of society’s ills.
There is little doubt, D.g., that being “poor” can be linked to many problems, not the least of which is ignorance of unhealthy eating habits. The vast majority of minimum wage jobs are entry level, part time or second jobs. Many are held by teenagers still living with their families. Raising the minimum wage creates fewer jobs and can exacerbate economic hardships.
And BTW, eating a healthy diet can be more affordable than consuming an unhealthy one. Food banks and public health departments promote healthy, affordable diets. In short, the minimum wage is not the cause of childhood obesity.
Obama’s minions in the bureaucracy are toeing the party line. What else would be expected from an agency run by a far left pol? Studies are mentioned, but no citations given expect to radical left interest groups like the EPI. Here’s an article by an independent economist on the adverse impacts of a big rise in the minimum wage:
http://lockerroom.johnlocke.org/2016/06/08/walter-williams-pokes-holes-in-minimum-wage-myths/
You obviously don’t understand how attribution is referenced in citing the work of another individual, D.g. Mitch Korai is posting from an article, written by Walter Williams, a well known, independent economist and free market advocate. Williams does not work for the John Locke Foundation and apparently has no formal ties with JLF.
Yes, the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out credible data widely used to track economic trends. But the article you referenced was not published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While no particular office in the department is credited, the release obviously came from Obama’s political operatives within the DOL, probably the press office or the Office of the Secretary. It is nothing more than a political statement in support of Administration policies.
Nice try, but off target again.
You can question my academic credentials all you want, D.g., but you keep spending a lot of computer type trying to fashion a coherent rebuttal to my comments. Instead of doubting my academic credentials. it would behoove you to bone up on academic protocols and effective communication techniques before you post such sophomoric blather.
Proof is in evident in your comments, D.g—more sophomoric prattle.
More juvenile taunting , D.g,? In retrospect, describing your comments as “sophomoric” was overly effusive.
Please note that Pittenger has NOT been endorsed by Trump.
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/op-ed/article82098422.html
Thanks Adam! I have corrected the post.
I am predicting a win in CD 2 for John McNeil for the Democratic candidacy . And he will give the GOP winner a good fight and hopefully remove Holding from his new. District. Clearly he did not get a hint when they did the redistricting.