Caught in the drama of winner-take-all states, North Carolina’s Republican primary has been relatively under-examined. But the fact that the race has been overlooked doesn’t mean it is unimportant. The ninth-largest state has a wealth of delegates to offer. For what it’s worth, here’s how I think things will look.

Trump will win the primary based on broadly distributed support. It is forgotten now, but a PPP North Carolina poll was the first survey to show Trump ahead anywhere. The only thing that has changed since last summer is that Trump’s become even more formidable. Furthermore, his nationwide base spans the party’s whole spectrum–hence how he was able to dominate in both Alabama and Massachusetts. He will have similarly widespread support here. If he has a strongest region, it will be the Piedmont/Foothills textile belt, where deindustrialization due to global trade is salient.

The one area he loses soundly will be Eastern North Carolina. Although the region has suffered financially, the more relevant factor for our purposes is religion. Eastern North Carolina has an extraordinarily high concentration of evangelicals. This devout voting bloc will be attracted to Ted Cruz, and his margins will be fattened by the withdrawal of religious-right favorite Ben Carson. As a result, the primary “map” will look similar to the 2008 gubernatorial election, where McCrory generally did well but Perdue received monolithic support east of Raleigh.

The urbanized I-85 corridor will be a battleground of sorts, but Trump will still have the advantage. Rubio will win Wake County. Wake, Mecklenburg, Forsyth, etc., are the high-income, high-education jurisdictions that’ve been friendly to Rubio. But other factors cut in the opposite direction. Trump actually excels among self-described moderate-to-liberal Republicans and he just won Massachusetts, the home-base of many transplants. Thus, he will perform better than expected in the metro-core counties and dominate their exurbs. Cruz will receive minimal support there.

As a whole, the state will be more narrowly divided than places such as Massachusetts, Mississippi and Tennessee. There is more ideological diversity within the NCGOP primary electorate, reflecting socio-cultural divisions between the state’s regions. Despite all that, Trump will continue his march to the nomination.

2 Comments

  1. Walt de Vries, Ph.D.

    Good piece, Alex. Have you speculated about what Trump’s primary victory in North Carolina may do to the rest of the candidate races on the Republican primary ballot?

    • Alex Jones

      First, that was very nice of you to say. I really appreciate it. If the old districts had held, I would have said the Trump-Cruz wave would have helped Jim Duncan’s race against Ellmers. But that ship has sailed. Neither Brannon nor Brawley, it appears, have the strength to get more than a few percentage points regardless of presidential dynamics.

      Once again, thank you for the kind words.

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