Queen City Free-for-All

by | May 20, 2015 | Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics

The Charlotte mayoral race this year might be one of the most interesting in a long time. It looks like there will be competitive primaries in both parties and potentially a competitive general as well. Even though Mayor Dan Clodfelter is an incumbent, he was appointed to the position so the race is more akin to an open-seat contest.

On the Democratic side you have Mayor Clodfelter and a number of challengers: City Council members Michael Barnes and David Howard, and also former County Commissioner and congressional candidate Jennifer Roberts. Barnes and Howard are both black, which is significant given the likely demographic makeup of the primary electorate. Barnes is the more conservative of the two, voting against the transgender bathroom ordinance and the controversial streetcar.

Of the field, Roberts would probably be the most formidable opponent on the Democratic side. In 2012, she surprisingly won the Mecklenburg County portion of NC-09 against Robert Pittenger. She could have broader appeal with suburban voters than the other Democratic candidates, and if past history is any indication, Republicans absolutely need to own the suburban vote to have any chance of winning in Charlotte.

The Republican side also boasts two strong candidates. The first is Scott Stone, a businessman who was the GOP nominee for Mayor in 2011 but lost by a landslide to Anthony Foxx. But times have changed, the Democratic nominee will certainly be weaker than Foxx, and Stone will be in a stronger position to win this time. He’s hired Paul Shumaker as consultant for the campaign; Shumaker also has Richard Burr and Thom Tillis as clients.

Then there’s Edwin Peacock, who announced his candidacy yesterday. Peacock was the nominee for Mayor in 2013 but lost to Patrick Cannon, who is now in prison. Peacock probably would have won two years ago but the “R” next to his name hurt him during a time when popularity for the NC GOP was at its nadir. The former City Councilman and financial adviser plans to spend a lot of time talking about the Cannon scandal and Charlotte’s budget situation, which is in bad shape.

Peacock might be joined by another candidate down the line, Commissioner Matthew Ridenhour. Peacock’s entry complicates matters for the Republicans, who probably wanted to avoid a primary. If it gets acrimonious then the GOP will be really shooting themselves in the foot.

No matter who emerges from the primaries, Democrats should be favored to retain the mayoralty. That’s because the demographic situation is bleak for Republicans in the city and it’s only getting worse. The GOP can still win but their eventual candidate is going to have to put out all the stops. Fortunately, their eventual nominee should be well-positioned to do so. And with a messy Democratic primary, who knows what might happen?

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