Count me as one Republican who is opposed to a statewide referendum on HB 2 this November. The reason why is political and perfectly articulated by Democratic strategist and blogger Gary Pearce: “I feel like it’s going to be a magnet for young voters who were attracted to Sanders and may not be excited about Hillary Clinton.”
Young people are overwhelmingly opposed to HB 2. I predict if there is a referendum on the ballot, the youth turnout will plummet nationwide from 2012 – except in North Carolina. The strong youth turnout in the Tar Heel State would be entirely attributed to the referendum.
If the young “Feel the Bern” crowd turns out in droves (as they will if HB 2 is on the ballot), Hillary Clinton will be favored to win North Carolina. Governor McCrory would be a serious underdog against Roy Cooper, and Richard Burr would have to sweat his race against former state legislator Deborah Ross.
Putting HB 2 on the ballot is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. The reward is that it will take the matter out of the hands of politicians and put it up to the voters to decide. The voters may well determine that they like the “bathroom law” after all.
But the risk is that the entire election will become wrapped up in HB 2, an unpopular law which has harmed the Republican brand in North Carolina. If that happens, the consequences could be disastrous for the Republican Party. For that reason, no referendum on HB 2. It just isn’t worth the risk.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
I’m disappointed, but not surprised by John Wynne’s analysis. His reasoning for opposing a statewide is that more people would turn out to vote and that might hurt Republicans. Sorry Mr. Wynne, but voting is probably the most important right that we, as citizens have. In my mind it isn’t just a right, it’s a responsibility.
Question: were you an advisor to the Republican Party when they passed a law that has disfranchised hundreds of thousands of voters in North Carolina?
Actually I’m not really disappointed, I’m disgusted. Just another right winger pretending to be a protector of our rights.
Well, of *course* you don’t want a big voter turnout. Small voter turnout consistently favors conservative politicians. It’s one of the reasons Republican/Tea Party politicians work so hard to pass laws that restrict voting as much as they can get away with. I’m only surprised that you came right out and said that you’d prefer if all the progressives/liberals stayed at home.
Good advice, Mr. Wynne. This issue will be decided by the federal courts, so the results of a referendum would be moot anyway. And the Governor’s gutsy stand against the DOJ’s overreach should help him win reelection, regardless of the legal outcome.
Put it up to the voters to decide! The voters are intelligent enough to indicate their intentions, while Raleigh Republicans are very unpopular.
It really doesn’t matter whether or not HB2 appears on the November ballot. The radicals in Raleigh (and it is ludicrous to refer to them as conservatives when you consider their consistently radical actions) have, by their actions, insured that it will play a major part in the outcome of the election here in North Carolina. And as Apply Liberally so eloquently put it, “Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.”.
The cynicism of the sponsors of HB2 is breathtaking. The only thing more stunning is the spinelessness demonstrated by Governor McCrory. His initial instinct was correct about not calling an emergency session of the legislature when no reasonable objective person could identify a so called “emergency” worthy of needlessly burning more tax dollars rather than address this during the regular session that convened April 25. And then once this grab bag of right wing anti-worker stuff (oh yeah, with the bathroom nonsense that made it an “emergency” attached) was jammed through in half a day the weak kneed McCrory didn’t even make a pretense of carefully considering his next step or consulting anyone. He signed it that very night!
Now, regardless of one’s position on the Charlotte ordinance or on HB2, the contrast between the way in which both were passed couldn’t be more stark. The Charlotte ordinance was passed after well over a year of discussion and with multiple very emotional and lengthy public hearings where all manner of opinion was given an opportunity to be expressed. There was also a municipal election in the midst of this process in which this issue was vetted by the voters and where the clearly stated positions of the elected officials involved was considered by the voters. Contrast that with the twelve hour process by which the legislature jammed through HB2. No opportunity for the public to know what was going on. No opportunity for even those who might be generally uncertain about the wisdom of the Charlotte ordinance to point out that even the potty portion of the bill is terribly written. And certainly no time for every working man and woman in North Carolina to realize that they were being screwed by the Republicans if they should ever be discriminated against in their employment based on their religion or race or sex or disability by having access to state courts taken away from them. Not to mention another in the very long line of usurpations of local governments. Does anyone not laugh at them at this point when they yammer on about the government that is closest to the people being the best? They clearly have no principles. They believe only in the government that they control. If I hear another one of these asshats refer to themselves as “principled conservatives” I am going to scream. They are so obviously neither principled nor conservative.
John, you mentioned the younger voting demographic in your post. I’ll give you anecdotal evidence about a demographic that could spell real trouble for Republicans this fall in North Carolina. Young, married, white women. Over Mother’s Day lunch the subject of HB2 came up. My daughter-in-law (thirties, married, three children, white. key demographic for Rs) expressed that she was absolutely appalled by HB2. She further expressed in very strong terms her pride that her employer, Bank of America, had made such a strong public statement of opposition to HB2. I guarantee you she is not unique.
In an odd numbered year or in mid-terms this might not have hurt the Republicans as badly. With presidential year turnout I don’t think you can minimize how much these arrogant SOBs have damaged themselves. And they deserve to get spanked in November.
I’m not naive. I know they have drawn districts that make it extremely difficult to rid ourselves of them. But I think they have, through their own arrogance, begun the multi-cycle process by which we will thankfully be able to rid ourselves of them. And HB2 on the ballot as a referendum will make little difference one way or the other. It’s already there. It woke a lot of voters up.
Could not agree more. My personal experience with GOP friends, despite being in the much older group, is that they too will not accept HB2, nor Trump and are fed up with Raleigh. One stated emphatically that no incumbent was receiving a vote from her, and I believe her. I have also been discretely testing the reaction to Trump and sometimes HB2 in casual conversations with hairdressers, nurses, coffee shop attendees, etc. and the reaction is always the same. He is a joke or worse, mostly worse. HB2 is a disaster and/or wrong. While definitely not a scientific poll, and a casual joking comment is not a very deep probe of anyone’s thoughts, I have yet to find any other reaction.
Dan R and Norma:
I have experienced similar conversations about and reactions to HB2. But, as you say, that feedback is not derived scientifically nor systematically, is anecdotal, and, most importantly, is heavily influenced by my network of acquaintances, my “cycle of friends.”
My personal and Facebook friends, like many people’s, are a filtered set. I don’t “friend” people who I know will react harshly to my political or philosophical views, Hence, when I post on FB, or comment on my FB friends’ messages, memes or threads, I get mostly a lot of rallying around my positions and points.
But my part-time job gets me out to various common man and common woman hang-outs in NC, again not of my choosing. And the relaxed atmosphere and alcohol loosens up a lot of tongues. And that’s when I get a full and stunning dose of the “other side.” The angry, frustrated, looking-for-scapegoats, closed-minded, anti-government, and bigoted other side.
It’s the latter experience that signals—to me at least—that Trump and the regressive/reactionary cabal that now leads this state’s government could easily win election/re-election come November.
I think the election is likely to be very close for Trump/Clinton. Not so sure about it being “easy” for Trump to win. (The recent polling in GA is interesting; not sure how reliable it is.) I am slightly more optimistic about some openings for the US Senate. (Anne Kirkpatrick, Russ Feingold, Tammy Duckworth) If there is poor Democratic turnout, I feel certain that they lose consistently. Just cannot figure out where I emigrate to!
Haha. LOL. Coffee just an up my nose….
But to think that pro-HB2’ers supporters believe that opposition to HB2 hasn’t been very well thought out, or that it’s been harmful to the Dem Party, or that it’s has been a media smear campaign, or that it was a local (and is, today, a federal) example of “overreach,” or that it doesn’t measure up to the pro-HB2 support or arguments.
Can’t make this stuff up. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.
So, if HB2 goes to referendum, sounds like we’ll probably end up calling it the GOP’s “Apodaca Apocalypst.”