Republicans are going to see intense intra-party contests in NC-2 and NC-3 next May, but it also looks like Democrats won’t be deprived of the primary fun. Former state senator Malcolm Graham is apparently planning to challenge Rep. Alma Adams in NC-12, the notorious I-85 snake district which some publications have called the most gerrymandered district in America. Graham, of Charlotte, lost to Adams in the 2014 primary.
Now, Graham (who tragically lost his sister in last month’s Charleston shooting) is apparently looking to do what he didn’t get a chance to do last time: defeat Adams in a one-on-one contest. In ’14, most thought that Adams’ Greensboro residency would be a detriment to her candidacy, as most of the vote in the Twelfth is in Charlotte.
Instead, it may have helped her. A gaggle of candidates emerged from the Charlotte area, including Mr. Graham, while Adams consolidated the significant Triad vote and won endorsements from women’s groups like Emily’s List. The result? In a significant show of strength, Adams won the primary – and essentially a congressional seat – without a runoff, thanks to North Carolina’s 40% threshold. Afterward, she was easily elected to a term in Congress and the unexpired term of Rep. Mel Watt, and has been serving since November.
Based on this, one might think Ms. Adams would be quite vulnerable as she seeks reelection. If the Charlotte vote is no longer divided, and Adams doesn’t grow her support from the 2014 primary … but those are some big ifs. In addition, looking at the results from the 2014 primary, one discovers that the total vote for the Triad candidates prevailed over the total vote for the Charlotte candidates (Rep. Marcus Brandon of Greensboro received 8%). That probably speaks to some significant crossover appeal for Adams in the Charlotte area, appeal that the Charlotte candidates lacked in the Triad.
In other words, Adams’ victory last year wasn’t a fluke. It came about on the basis of a campaign that exceeded the expectations of many political analysts. If anything, she’s likely to be even stronger next time around, as her status as an incumbent Congresswoman will be beneficial to her, especially on the fundraising side of things.
So if Graham runs, can he beat Adams next year? Color me skeptical. (Though given my track record of predictions of late, perhaps Graham should start planning the design of his D.C. office.) The best predictor of campaign success tends to be running successful campaigns in the past, and if that holds up then Adams will be well-positioned for a second term … and more.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
U.S. ELECTION REFORM.
IF NECESSARY “WE THE PEOPLE” WANT THE U.S. CONGRESS TO WRITE AN AMENDMENT TO THE U.S. CONSTITUTION TO ESTABLISH THAT ALL LAWS, REGULATIONS AND RULES AND LIMITATIONS COVERING THE “RIGHT TO VOTE” SHALL BE AND ARE THE ABSOLUTE DUTY AND RESPONSIBILITY OF THE U. S. CONGRESS AND THE U. S. PRESIDENT. THESE LAWS MUST BE FOLLOWED IN AND BY EVERY STATE.
THAT ANY AND ALL ATTEMPTS TO RESTRICT, CANCEL OR OPPRESS IN ANY AND ALL WAYS AN INDIVIDUALS “RIGHT TO VOTE” SHALL BE CONSIDERATED AN ACT OF TREASON.
“WE THE PEOPLE” WANT A FEDERAL LAW THAT WOULD REQUIRE THAT ALL FEDERAL ELECTIONS BE PUBLICLY SUPPORTED AND PAID FOR WITH ALL DONATIONS BEING CONTRIBUTED TO THE FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION SPECIFING THE POLITICAL CANDIDATE OR THE POLITICAL PARTY. THE F.E.C. WOULD FORWARD THE FUNDS MONTHLY TO THE POLITICAL CANDIDATES OR POLITICAL PARTY ANONYMOUSLY.
THIS LAW MUST COVER:
[1.] SPECIFY THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF DONATIONS OF VALUE [CASH-PROPERTY-SERVICES-ANYTHING OF VALUE.] THAT CAN BE CONTRIBUTED TO A CANDIDATE.
[2.] SPECIFY THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF DONATION OF VALUE [CASH-PROPERTY-SERVICES-ANYTHING OF VALUE.] THAT CAN BE CONTRIBUTION TO A POLITICAL PARTY.
[3.] SPECIFY THAT TO MAKE A DONATION OR CONTRIBUTION [CASH-PROPERTY-SERVICES-ANYTHING OF VALUE.] TO A SPECIFIC CANDIDATE THE DONOR MUST BE ABLE AND ELIGIBLE TO VOTE FOR SAID CANDIDATE.
[4.] SPECIFY THE DATES OF ALL ELECTIONS. EXAMPLE; THE FIRST THURSDAY OF NOVEMBER.
[5.] SPECIFY THE NUMBER OF EARLY VOTING DAYS. REQUIRE THAT THEY INCLUDE SATURDAYS AND SUNDAYS IN THE COUNT IF ONE CAN VOTE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
[6.] SPECIFY THE HOURS OF VOTING. PROVIDE THE STARTING TIME AND QUITTING TIME FOR EVERY TIME ZONE.
[7.] SPECIFY ALL OF THE REQUIRMENTS FOR A VOTING SITE.
[8.] ESTABLISH THE PHYSICAL REQUIREMENTS FOR EACH AND EVERY VOTING SITE, INSIDE AND OUTSIDE REQUIREMENTS. THEY ALL MUST MEET THE HANDICAP ACCESSIBILITY LAWS. RESTROOMS MUST BE MADE AVAILABLE E.M.T. MUST BE AVAILABLE AND AN AMBULANCE SERVICE MUST BE AVAILABLE.
[10.] ESTABLISH THE REQUIREMENT THAT AN OFFICIAL FROM EACH POLITICAL PARTY ON THE BALLOT BE OFFERED THE RIGHT TO MONITOR THE VOTE AND VERIFY THAT THE VOTING LAWS ARE AND WERE FOLLOWED.
[11.] SPECIFY THE REQUIREMENTS TO REGISTER TO VOTE. SPECIFY THE IDENTIFICATION THAT MUST BE PROVIDED TO REGISTER.
[12.] SPECIFY THE IDENTIFICATION THAT IS REQUIRED TO ACTUAL ENTER THE VOTING BOOTH AND VOTE.
[13.] ESTABLISH EXACTLY WHICH FELONY CONVICTIONS REMOVES AN INDIVIDUALS “RIGHT TO VOTE.”
[14.] ESTABLISH THE REQUIREMENTS FOR EACH AND EVERY STATE AND THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO RE-REGISTER EVERY CONVICTED FELON “RIGHT TO VOTE” UPON THEIR COMPLETION OF THE SENTENCE THEY RECEIVED AND THE PERIOD OF PROBATION OR PAROLE
[15.] SPECIFY THE SOFTWARE PROGRAM TO BE USED TO DRAW DISTRICT LINES.
[16.] SPECIFY THAT ALL DISTRICT LINES MUST BE DRAWN NORTH AND SOUTH, EAST AND WEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RIVER OR BODY OF WATER USED AS A BORDER.
[17.] SPECIFY THE ENTIRE REQUIREMENTS FOR A BALLOT, SUCH AS SIZE, PAPER, COLOR OF THE BALLOT PAPER, COLOR OF INK, FONT TYPE AND SIZE, AND OR ANYTHING ELSE.
[18.] SPECIFY THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE TO BE ASSIGNED TO A DISTRICT PLUS OR MINUS 5%.
19.] SPECIFY THE RATI0 OR NUMBER OF VOTING MACHINES PER THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE ASSIGNED TO A DISTRICT.
[20.] ESTABLISH A LIST OF THE SPECIFIC MANUFACTURERS VOTING MACHINES TO BE USED IN EVERY VOTING SITE.
[21.] ESTABLISH THAT A VOTING MACHINE MUST BE CAPABLE OF PRINTING OUT A COPY OF THE VOTE CAST BY THE VOTER IF THE VOTER REQUESTS ONE.
[22.] OUTLAW POLITICAL ACTION GROUPS FROM ADVOCATING FOR OR AGAINST ANY SPECIFIC CANDIDATE OR POLITICAL PARTY.
[23.] PREVENT POLITICAL ACTION GROUPS FROM ADVOCATING FOR OR AGAINST ANY ISSUE THEY ARE NOT DIRECTLY VESTED IN.
[24.] ESTABLISH WHEN AND FOR HOW LONG A CAMPAIGN MAY FUNCTION PRIOR TO AN ELECTION AND HOW CLOSE TO AN ELECTION DATE.
[25.] DEVELOP A PLAN FOR ONLINE REGISTRATION USING FACIAL RECOGNITION SOFTWARE.
[26.] DEVELOP A PLAN FOR ONLINE VOTING USING FACIAL RECOGNITION SOFTWARE.
[27.] MANDATE THAT EVERY SINGLE U. S. CITIZEN UPON ATTAINING THE AGE OF 18 BE REGISTERED TO VOTE.
[28.] REPEAL THE REQUIREMENT FOR AN ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND LET ALL OF THE RESULTS OF FEDERAL ELECTIONS BE DETERMINED BY THE POPULAR VOTES CAST.
NC 12 as the most gerrymandered, discriminatory US House District in America?
http://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/wfae/files/201312/District12.JPG
A picture is worth a thousand words.
Gotta love the brass of any Republican who casts aspersions on a Dem by calling her district the “most gerrymandered district in America.” Some of the CheerWine I was drinking ran up my nose when I read that passage.
I seem to recall that it was the GOP that force-fed us all the egregiously gerrymandered redistricting for NC in 2011, cramming as many likely Dem voters into NC-12 as it possibly could.