Renee Ellmers vs. #NeverTrump

by | Mar 31, 2016 | 2016 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics, US House | 4 comments

Yesterday, I spoke with a former constituent of Renee Ellmers who had supported her in the past. Now she’s seriously peeved with the congresswoman, so much that she even called her office to complain.

Naturally, I was curious about what had aroused her wrath. Could it be Ellmers’ weakness on the illegal immigration issue? Being too close to the congressional leadership? Or derailing a bill that would have banned abortion after 20 weeks, broadly supported by pro-life groups?

Nope. This former supporter was angry because Ellmers endorsed Donald Trump.

Though this person no longer lives in Ellmers’ district, you can be sure that there are plenty of active voters who do and are just as angry. The “Never Trump” movement is strong within the Republican Party. They’re disgusted with the GOP frontrunner and also disgusted with those supporting him. Therefore, it looks like Ellmers’ endorsement of Trump was, as GOP consultant Carter Wrenn has said, too cute by half. Like a prude on their first sojourn to a nudist colony, Ellmers says she now feels “liberated” by her endorsement of Trump. In fact, the only thing that might be liberated by a Trump endorsement is her own congressional career.

The endorsement is even more curious given that the big winner in her new congressional district wasn’t Donald Trump. It was Ted Cruz – by a lot. In fact, he performed stronger in Ellmers’ district than any in the state. Cruz voters are also more reliable voters and are more likely to turn out in a June election with only one race on the ballot. She would have been better off endorsing Cruz.

In her reconfigured territory, Ellmers always had a narrow path to victory. She could have positioned herself as a reasonable moderate and hoped for a big split in the conservative vote – increasingly possible now that Greg Brannon is a declared candidate. Her chances of winning in such a scenario still would have been low, but it would have enabled her to run a more credible campaign.

Instead, she’s trying to pass herself off as a Donald Trump fan in a race likely to be dominated by Ted Cruz voters who know that she’s more like John Kasich. Combine that with the predictable abandonment of Ellmers by pro-life groups, and you have yourself a U.S. Representative whose campaign for reelection looks to be on the ropes.

4 Comments

  1. Cosmic Janitor

    Two things about Trump: 1). He is anti regime change war, where most of the leaders deposed have been democratically elected and the countries left in ruin to be pillaged by the global capitalist, with the cmilitary cost born by the US. taxpayer; 2). He is anti-Wall Street ‘free trade agreement’ that sacrifices economic stability for banker profits. Kudos to Ms. Ellmers for having the good sense to endorse the only republican candidate who is not a tea-party zealot wacko – like Cruz.. Democrats would be well advised to cast their vote for her, she is one of the last true moderate republican politicians.

    • Matt Phillippi

      Yes, Democrats, please vote for the candidate who leaves unlocked AR-15s in her unlocked garage. This is the sort of responsibility we need in Congress.

  2. Mr David B Scott

    Ellmer’s is not the only political career that is going to be derailed by jumping on the Trump bandwagon. This lack of judgment will taint all her work and image going forward ala Sarah Palin. In the long-term, I hope this will help rid the party of its extremist elements so we can once again have a legitimate two party system.

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