According to voter registration records, Democrats and Republicans are both losing ground in North Carolina, and unaffiliated voters are on the rise. But growing even faster than voters not affiliated with either party are those who choose to register as Libertarians. There are now over 24,000 Libertarians in the state.
Who are these people? The data from Carolina Transparency gives us a little insight about this group. In a state where female voters are 54% of the electorate and male voters are 46%, the Libertarians are very disproportionately male, with men making up 55% and women 43% (the other 2% are unidentified). They’re also overwhelmingly white – 80%. African Americans constitute 8% (in comparison, African Americans are 2% of Republicans and 44% of Democrats in North Carolina). And not surprisingly, they tend to be on the young side and disproportionately reside in counties with a large college presence.
Since Election Day 2012, the counties adding the largest number of new Libertarian voters:
1. Wake (+626)
2. Mecklenburg (+560)
3. Guilford (+259)
4. Buncombe (+220)
5. Onslow (+140)
6. Johnston (+131)
6. New Hanover (+131)
8. Cumberland (+127)
9. Durham (+126)
10. Forsyth (+125)
Overall, the state of North Carolina added 5,080 Libertarians to the voter rolls since November 6th, 2012.
And by percentage gain since that time:
1. Tyrrell (+100%)
2. Macon (+76.74)
3. Hertford (+58.33%)
4. Edgecombe (+54.05%)
5. Martin (+53.57%)
6. Clay (+52.38%)
7. Davie (+52.00)
8. Perquimans (+47.37%)
9. Beaufort (+46.55%)
10. Polk (+45.24%)
Since Election Day 2012, registered Libertarians in NC have grown by 26.29%.
And, finally, the counties where Libertarians constitute the largest percentage of registered voters:
1. Watauga (0.92%)
2. New Hanover (0.63%)
3. Dare (0.57%)
4. Orange (0.55%)
5. Harnett (0.54%)
6. Onslow (0.54%)
7. Caldwell (0.52%)
8. Currituck (0.52%)
9. Buncombe (0.51%)
10. Wake (0.49%)
With such rapid growth, are Libertarian candidates likely to influence election outcomes in North Carolina? In a close race, anything is possible. But until ballot laws are reformed, voters who would otherwise support Libertarians are likely to keep voting for one of the two main parties. No one wants to risk that their vote might be “wasted”. As long as the first-past-the-post system remains on the books, the power of the Libertarian Party and their candidates is likely to remain minuscule. More likely, the growth of this party reflects an ideology typical of young voters that one of the main parties will come to embrace in the future.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
2014SEP NC voter registration statistical update.
Total number of NC registered voters, constantly increasing since 2014MAY (when it was 6.516M), is up to 6.57M, its highest since 2013JAN (6.58M).
Demobrat share, constantly decreasing since 2013JAN (43.145%), is down to yet another new record low, 41.99%. DEMOBRAT SHARE IS LESS THAN 42%. IN 1993 IT WAS 60%.
Repugnican share, constantly decreasing since 2013APR (30.825%), is down to yet another new record low, 30.55%.
The D-R Difference, constantly decreasing since 2013FEB (12.32), is down to 11.4, its lowest since 2008APR (11.2).
Libertarian share, constantly increasing since 2012JUL (0.219%), is up to yet another new record high, 0.375%. EVERY 267th NC REGISTERED VOTER IS LIBERTARIAN.
Unaffiliated share, constantly increasing since 2013JAN (25.72%), is up to yet another new record high, 27.1%. FULLY 27% OF THE NC ELECTORATE ARE UNAFFILIATED.
Non-Demopublican share, constantly increasing since 2009FEB (22.36%), is up to yet another new record high, 27.5%.
Graphs of monthly L share increase and more:
tinyurl.com/VotRegGraph
Keep on your toes, guys. Thanks!
gg
lpnc
membership secretary
Also news as of this month, there are now FIFTY NC counties where Unaffiliateds outnumber R’s or outnumber D’s.
And please drop the assumption of youthful utopianism. I’m 50 and a registered Libertarian!
I know the Austrian school of economics doesn’t allow objective data, but the poll is the poll is the poll. It isn’t an ‘assumption’ but some of that ‘scientific’ evil data that you hate so much.
Man, these Libertarians are taking over. I, for one, welcome our Libertarian overlords. I heard a scary rumor about them a long time ago though. SUpposedly, they want to completely take over the world, and then… leave you alone!
RandGoldOwl
Whatever that means. I say live and let live. You should be made to pay for any injury you do to others or their property but otherwise you should be left alone.
Like the ManBearPig but its half Rand, Half Gold and Half Owl.
“What is RandGoldOwl you say? It is a terrifying creature that walks the earth, that is Half Galt, Half Gold and Half Owl. The Galt half looks like a man, the perfect image of John Galt, super secret ninja messiah of the Libertarian party. Who is John Galt? John Galt is a man who believes that if you stop building it, it will all fall apart. The super secret rich people who really make everything work are the only thing that is keeping society from falling apart, and if they stop what they’re doing, we will all be forced to follow the super secret special libertarian way of less government.
Gold. What is gold? It is a metal. This golem has magical metal properties and is the only basis for an economic system. Never mind that every nation on earth uses Fiat currency (including…by the way, North Korea and the libertarian paradise, Somalia) Gold is special. When the Fall comes from too much government spending, then only Gold will save us. There’s gold in them hills, gold I tell you! Buy gold. Buy gold! Glen Beck says to buy gold. Sure he may be spouting off stuff about Obama being a ninja turtle mutant kenyan, but it is better to doubt your doubt than doubt your faith.
Gold.
And owl? Why owl? Because this owl represents the super secret knowledge that only Libertarians have. Only Matt Stone and Trey Parker and Penn and Teller can see the TRUTH. They know more than climate scientists. They know more than all the scientists. They know the secret of LESS government. They have read it in the tea leaves of the SECRET US Constitution. You might read the constitution and see one thing but in the SECRET SECRET SECRET US Constitution, the Chosen, those who are wise, can see the truth.
Thank God we have these special people to constantly remind us of RandGoldOwl. Without them, we might believe that government could be the solution, that the federal reserve stops economic collapse, and the actually obvious interpretation of the constitution were correct.”
Your last list, the top ten highest-L-share counties, is way, way off! The correct version, as of 2014AUG02 (the last weekly listing before you published), is:
COUNTY L%
WATAUGA 0.9
NEW HANOVER 0.63
DARE 0.57
ORANGE 0.55
HARNETT 0.543
ONSLOW 0.542
CALDWELL 0.524
CURRITUCK 0.523
BUNCOMBE 0.51
WAKE 0.48
Corrected, thanks!
tinyurl.com/VotRegGraph