Senate District 12: Ronald Rabin (R) vs. Joe Langley (D)
Senate District 12 consists of Harnett County, Lee County, and a small part of Johnston County. The 12th was the district of David Rouzer, now the GOP nominee for Congress in the 7th district, but its shape was reconfigured substantially when the legislative lines were redrawn following the 2010 census.
The seat is presently held by freshman Republican senator Ronald Rabin, a retired colonel and businessman. Rabin won a surprisingly narrow victory in 2012 against Democrat Brad Salmon, who instead of seeking a rematch this year is running for the State House against Mike Stone. In his 51%-49% victory, Rabin significantly underperformed the GOP presidential nominee’s numbers in the district, due mostly to Salmon’s aggressive campaign and his being able to take advantage of a historic Democratic edge here at the local level.
This year, despite a tumultuous legislative session, Rabin looks much more secure. Not only should it in theory be easier to run as an incumbent, Democrats did not recruit a strong candidate here. Their failure to do so is particularly grievous because Rabin has been blasted by liberal groups as a member of the “fracking crew” and opposition to fracking could make for an unexpected electoral outcome. Indeed, fracking should be a major issue here, as this district is the center of where the industry has strongest potential in the state and voters here, while hopeful of the economic gains that could result, are wary of negative environmental effects and are much more tuned in to the issue than elsewhere in the state.
The Democrats’ nominee here is Joe Langley, a perennial candidate and software developer. As of the last fundraising quarter, Langley reported raising $0, a total that does not inspire much confidence in his ability to run a winning campaign. Democrats also have the problem of midterm dropoff: the African American population here is on par with the state average, and Lee and Harnett counties have proven to be much more favorable to the GOP than in non-presidential years.
This is one of the districts the Democrats need to win if they hope to win back the State Senate. Right now, it doesn’t look like they’re en route to doing so. The 12th is yet another illustration of how the crippled Democratic organization is harming their ability to wage competitive campaigns. Back in September, Public Policy Polling released numbers showing Rabin with a 20/30 approval rating and running even with a generic Democrat. The poll was released in order to tempt a strong Democrat into running, but the gambit failed. Even though it would favor Republicans in any case, Democrats could conceivably compete here if they ever get their act together. But it won’t be this year.
Counties in district: Harnett, Johnston (part), Lee
District Rating: This district is Likely Republican. One party has a very clear advantage over the other, and this advantage is likely to persist through Election Day. But because of the chance of unexpected things happening over the course of the election cycle, the race cannot be pinned as solid for one party, even though a lopsided result should be expected.
2012 Result
51% Rabin
49% Salmon
Voter Registration
42.4% Democrat
33.6% Republican
23.6% Unaffiliated
72.0% White
21.6% Black
6.4% Other
Results in Other Elections
2012 President
58.9% Romney
40.1% Obama
2012 Governor
60.8% McCrory
37.2% Dalton
2010 Senate
59.9% Burr
38.1% Marshall
2008 Senate
50.9% Dole
46.0% Hagan
Social Media Support
Sen. Ronald Rabin – 931
Joe Langley – 183
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
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