North Carolina Senate District 19: State Sen. Wesley Meredith (R) vs. Toni Morris (D)
The state’s 19th Senate District is a rather unusually shaped district represented by Republican Wesley Meredith. Despite the attempts of legislators to make the seat as Republican as possible, it’s still a swing district where the right Democrat can prevail. Unfortunately for Team Blue, Meredith has proven to be a strong incumbent, beating back his challengers every time.
Democrats were optimistic about beating Meredith two years ago when their nominee was Billy Richardson, now a member of the North Carolina House. That campaign was an ugly one. Backlash to the brutal nature of the campaign and weak Democratic turnout propelled Meredith to a stronger-than-expected victory, defying the predictions of some pundits.
This year, the Democratic nominee is family counselor Toni Morris, who once was a candidate for the United States House of Representatives back in 2014, losing to Clay Aiken. The latest financial reports from the respective candidates show that Meredith is in a strong position to be reelected despite the swing nature of the seat, which voted for President Obama in 2008. While Meredith has over $100,000 cash on hand, Democrat Toni Morris has just over $8,000. Such a small total makes it unlikely that state Democrats will invest time and effort into going after the incumbent this year.
In the end, Meredith doesn’t have much to fear from his Democratic challenger. What would be a game-changer is a court ruling striking down some of the current districts, forcing legislators to clean up the lines. This would make the 19th more Democratic and would lead to more competitive contests for the incumbent.
But any such ruling is unlikely to have an effect on the race this year. Given Meredith’s past electoral record of victory against strong opponents and the weak fundraising on the part of the Democratic candidate, this swing seat gets a rating of “Solid Republican.” This is one of the seats that Democrats need to win to take back the Senate. Once again, it looks like they’ve let this opportunity slip away from them.
Counties in district: Cumberland (part)
District Rating: Solid Republican
2014 Result
54.4% Meredith (R)
45.6% Richardson (D)
Voter Registration
41.7% Democrat
31.6% Republican
26.4% Unaffiliated
64.0% White
25.1% Black
10.9% Other
Results in Other Elections
2012 President
49.9% Obama
49.4% Romney
2012 Governor
51.0% McCrory
46.9% Dalton
2010 Senate
53.3% Burr
44.9% Marshall
2008 Senate
53.5% Hagan
44.0% Dole
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
42% Democrat, wow. This is a competitive district !
A family therapist is exactly the type we need in Raleigh.
Could you be any more haughty and judgmental about a person’s chosen livelihood?
Yeah, we simply mustn’t put a state licensed family counselor– someone who is trained to listen well, to get people interacting honestly and openly, and to seek common ground and compromise on problems — in the NCGA. A person like that couldn’t possibly serve the public as well as the incumbent landscaper company owner does.
Right…..
Oh man, more “tennis-volley” blogging from Mr. Wynne.
First, the GOP incumbent Meredith is noted.
Then, the 19th is called a swing district, because it essentially wasn’t egregiously gerrymandered enough by the GOP, and “the right Democrat can prevail.”
Then, we’re told Meredith won in 2014 because of ” …..backlash to the brutal nature of the campaign and weak Democratic turnout,” and is poised to win because of his fundraising advantage over Morris.
Then, we hear about the potential “game-changer” court ruling “striking down some of the current districts, forcing legislators to clean up the lines….and make the 19th more Democratic…..”
Then, it’s opined that any such court ruling, however, “is unlikely to have an effect on the race.”
Finally, the district is no longer spoken in terms of being a “swing district,” but it now deemed “Solid Republican” (without aparent consideration given to the facts that the 19th went to Obama in 2014, or that it has more Dems registered than GOP’ers, or that the Nov. 2016 turnout, with the presidency at stake, will not likely show “weak” Dem voting numbers).
My neck is sore, once again, from a Wynne election district prospect.