We have a Senate race in North Carolina. Or at least we might. Deborah Ross’ entry into the contest gives Democrats a candidate who is smart, accomplished, connected—and attractive. She’ll need to leverage those assets into the type of resources she needs to run a competitive US Senate race. If Ross can do that, she can might be able to give incumbent Senator Richard Burr a run for his money.

In the North Carolina House, Ross was a chief lieutenant of former Speaker Joe Hackney and widely respected for her intellect. Before she entered the legislature, she led the state’s ACLU office and left the House to become general counsel for GoTriangle, the regional transit agency. Still, she’s unknown outside of Raleigh and political circles.

Ross faces Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey in the Democratic primary. He’s an African-American veteran who served in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Rey is a talented politician but his resume is thin and he’s never had a major competitive race. He will need to consolidate black voters behind his campaign and he’ll need to raise real money to do that. He’ll also need to quickly establish a connection with the grassroots to build a low-dollar base to counter the establishment money that will go to Ross. It’s a very steep climb without institutional support or any major financial backers.

Ross has a steep climb, too, but she has the support of both EMILY’s List and the DSCC in Washington. They will give her the tools and guidance to put together a campaign. In state, she’ll also have the support of institutional players in places like the pro-choice and environmental communities. Many of her former House colleagues have already pledged support. She comes with big advantages that Rey lacks.

Neither EMILY’s List nor the DSCC will invest much early money into Ross. They will provide logistical support and advice, not all of it good. Ross will need to show that she has the savvy to understand the political environment and quickly learn how to operate in a statewide campaign. She’ll need to carefully monitor her resources and figure out how to create a statewide presence while spending almost all of her time on the phone raising money.

With Burr sitting on millions of dollars and the capacity to quickly raise millions more, money is really the only thing that matters at this point in the contest. The overhead of the campaign alone will cost well over $500,000 between now and next November if she’s competitive. Ross needs to show that she can put that much in the bank before the end of the year to be taken seriously. A half million dollar haul would be viewed as weak by the DC establishment but enough to keep her on the watch list. If she can hit that mark, she can attract more donors and start to put together a more robust operation.

Richard Burr is vulnerable. He’s a relatively undefined candidate despite serving two terms in the US Senate. His approval ratings are underwater and Congress is unpopular. However, he’s a prolific fundraiser whose anonymity is his advantage. Aside from his family, nobody loves him but nobody hates him, either.

For Ross, these first three months are like tryouts. She’s got the raw materials to make a strong candidate. Now, she needs to show that she can put together a campaign with few mistakes and at least a few small victories. If she can do that, she might be able to attract donors to her campaign and SuperPACs to the state. If that happens, the North Carolina Senate race will again be front and center on the national stage.

Thomas Mills

Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >