Yesterday, Dr. Michael Bitzer posted about the absentee ballots being cast in NC, where Democrats are looking unusually motivated. A less serious gauge of enthusiasm might be found through social media, in particular Facebook. On that medium, Tillis is way ahead in the number of Facebook ‘likes’. If likes were votes, and only the people who liked one of the candidates voted, then we’d get the following tally:

Thom Tillis – 81,544
Kay Hagan – 69,819
Sean Haugh – 1,113

And if this was an actual election, this is the share of the vote they would receive:

Thom Tillis – 53.48%
Kay Hagan – 45.79%
Sean Haugh – 0.73%

Digging a little deeper, there are some interesting findings. 7,099 people are “talking about” Thom Tillis. (I have no idea what that means.) His total page likes are up 0.3% from last week. The most engaged Tillis fans live in the Charlotte area and are over the age of 55.

For Kay Hagan, she has 9,458 people talking about her. Is that good or bad? Her total page likes are up 0.7% from last week. Since last week, Tillis is down and Hagan is up in terms of new likes. Does that mean Hagan has the momentum? Hagan’s fan base is also in the Charlotte area but they skew a bit younger than Tillis supporters, in the 55-64 age range.

Based on social media alone, Haugh is clearly the candidate with the most momentum. He’s up 4.5% from last week in terms of total page likes. 351 people are talking about him. Unlike Tillis and Hagan, his supporters are clustered in the Raleigh area and are a lot younger, 25 to 44 years old.

One other insight – Hagan’s Facebook page has pictures of her at campaign events, attending rallies, meeting with supporters, etc. They humanize her quite a bit and are fun to look at. Tillis, on the other hand, has none of that, just a bunch of posters with conservative messages. It would nice to see pictures of Tillis on the campaign trail and engaging with voters.

What does this all mean? Nothing, really. But as social media grows in importance, perhaps there will be a better correlation between support on Facebook and actual support come Election Day. But as it stands right now, the polls show Hagan ahead, with the latest one being a poll from Gravis Marketing showing the Democrat leading 46-42. It looks like Tillis still has a lot of work to do. Republicans hope that a stronger presence on television will help Tillis bridge the gap in the next few weeks.

And speaking of Facebook, PoliticsNC is on it. Be sure to ‘like’ us on there and ‘share’ this post with your friends – most of whom, I’m sorry to tell you, aren’t really your friends. Thanks for reading!

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.